skip to main content


Title: Sensitivity of Building Energy Model Predictions to Spatial Variations in Climate under Different Levels of Urbanization
In the United States, approximately 40% of the primary energy use and 72% of the electricity use belong to the building sector. This shows the significance of studying the potential for reducing the building energy consumption and buildings’ sustainability for ensuring a sustainable development. Therefore, many different efforts focus on reducing the energy consumption of residential buildings. Data-validated building energy modeling methods are among the studies for such an effort, particularly, by enabling the identification of the potential savings associated with different potential retrofit strategies. However, there are many uncertainties that can impact the accuracy of such energy model results, one of which is the weather input data. In this study, to investigate the impact of spatial temperature variation on building energy consumption, six weather stations in an urban area with various urban density were selected. A validated energy model was developed using energy audit data and high-frequency electricity consumption of a residential building in Austin, TX. The energy consumption of the modeled building was compared using the selected six weather datasets. The results show that energy use of a building in an urban area can be impacted by up to 12% due to differences in urban density. This indicates the importance of weather data in predicting energy consumption of the building. The methodology and results of this study can be used by planners and decision makers to reduce uncertainties in estimating the building energy use in urban scale.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2013161
NSF-PAR ID:
10295008
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
ASHRAE Annual Virtual Conference 2020
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Among various elements of urban infrastructure, there is significant opportunity to improve existing buildings’ sustainability, considering that approximately 40% of the total primary energy consumption and 72% of electricity consumption in United States is consumed by the building sector. Many different efforts focus on reducing the energy consumption of residential buildings. Data-validated building energy modeling methods serve the role of supporting this effort, by enabling the identification of the potential savings associated with different potential retrofit strategies. However there are many uncertainties that can impact the accuracy of energy model results, one of which is the weather input data. Measured weather data inputs located at each building can help address this concern, however, weather station data collection for each building is also costly and typically not feasible. Some weather station data is already collected, however, these are generally located at airports rather than near buildings, and thus do not capture local, spatially-varying weather conditions which are documented to occur, particularly in urban areas. In this study we address the impact of spatial temperature differences on residential building energy use. An energy model was developed in EnergyPlus for a residential building located in Mueller neighborhood of Austin, TX, and was validated using actual hourly measured electricity consumption. Using the validated model, the impact of measured spatial temperature differences on building energy consumption were investigated using multiple weather stations located throughout the urban area with different urban fractions. The results indicate that energy consumption of a residential building in a city with a 10% higher urban fraction would increase by approximately 10%. This variation in energy consumption is likely due to the impact of UHI effects occurring in urban areas with high densities. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    As cities keep growing worldwide, so does the demand for key resources such as electricity, gas, and water that residents consume. Meeting the demand for these resources can be challenging and it requires an understanding of the consumption patterns. In this study, we apply extreme gradient boosting to predict and analyze electricity, gas, and water consumption in large‐scale buildings in New York City and use SHapley Additive exPlanation to interpret the results. For this, the New York City's local law 84 extensive dataset was merged with the Primary Land Use Tax Lot Output dataset as well as with other socio‐economic datasets. Specifically, we developed and validated three models: electricity, gas, and water consumption. Overall, we find that electricity, gas, and water consumptions are highly interrelated, but the interrelationships are complex and not universal. The main factor influencing these interrelationships seems to be the technology used for space and water heating (i.e., electricity vs. gas). Building type also has a large impact on interrelationships (i.e., residential vs. nonresidential), especially between electricity and water. Moreover, we also find a nonlinear relationship between gas consumption and building intensity. The main results are summarized into seven major findings. Overall, this study contributes to the urban metabolism literature that ultimately aims to gain a fundamental understanding of how energy and resources are consumed in cities.

     
    more » « less
  3. Building energy consumption is highly influenced by weather conditions, thus having appropriate weather data is important for improving the accuracy of building energy models. Typically local weather station data from the nearest airport or military base is used for weather data input. However this is generally known to differ from the actual weather conditions experienced by an urban building, particularly considering most weather stations are located far from urban areas. The use of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM) provides a means to be able to predict more localized variations in weather conditions. However, one of the main challenges associated with the assessment of the use of this model is the lack of availability of ground based weather station data with which to compare its results. This has generally limited the ability to assess the level of agreement between WRF-UCM weather predictions and measured weather data in urban locations. In this study, a network of 40 ground based weather stations located in Austin, TX are compared to WRF/UCM-predicted weather data, to assess similarities and differences between model-predicted results and actual data. Given that the WRF-UCM method also takes into account many input parameters and assumptions, including the urban fraction which can be measured at different scales, this work also considers the relative impact of the granularity of the urban fraction data on WRF-UCM predicted weather. As a case study, a building energy model of a typical residential building is then developed and used to assess the differences in predicted building energy use and demands between the WRF-UCM weather and measured weather conditions during an extreme heatwave event in Austin, TX 
    more » « less
  4. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Air conditioning (AC) demand has recently grown to about 10% of total electricity globally, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the cooling requirement for buildings globally increases by three-fold by 2050 without additional policy interventions. The impacts of these increases for energy demand for human comfort are more pronounced in tropical coastal areas due to the high temperatures and humidity and their limited energy resources. One of those regions is the Caribbean, where building energy demands often exceed 50% of the total electricity, and this demand is projected to increase due to a warming climate. The interconnection between the built environment and the local environment introduces the challenge to find new approaches to explore future energy demand changes and the role of mitigation measures to curb the increasing demands for vulnerable tropical coastal cities due to climate change. This study presents mid-of-century and end-of-century cooling demand projections along with demand alleviation measures for the San Juan Metropolitan Area in the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico using a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Building Energy Model (BEM) forced by bias-corrected Community Earth Systems Model (CESM1) global simulations. The World Urban Database Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) Land Class Zones (LCZs) bridge the gap required by BEM for their morphology and urban parameters. MODIS land covers land use is depicted for all-natural classes. The baseline historical period of 2008–2012 is compared with climate and energy projections in addition to energy mitigation options. Energy mitigation options explored include the integration of solar power in buildings, the use of white roofs, and high-efficiency heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The impact of climate change is simulated to increase minimum temperatures at the same rate as maximum temperatures. However, the maximum temperatures are projected to rise by 1–1.5 °C and 2 °C for mid- and end-of-century, respectively, increasing peak AC demand by 12.5% and 25%, correspondingly. However, the explored mitigation options surpass both increases in temperature and AC demand. The AC demand reduction potential with energy mitigation options for 2050 and 2100 decreases the need by 13% and 1.5% with the historical periods. Overall, the demand reduction potential varies with LCZs showing a high reduction potential for sparsely built (32%), and low for compact low rise (21%) for the mid-of-century period compared with the same period without mitigation options. 
    more » « less
  5. Hot temperatures drive excessive energy use for space-cooling in built environments. In a building, a system operator could save costs by making better decisions under the uncertainties associated with urban temperature and future energy demands. In this paper, we assess the impact of urban weather modeling on energy cost, using a value of information (VoI) analysis, in a day-ahead (DA) electricity market. To do that, we combine two probabilistic models: (a) a model for forecasting urban temperature and (b) a model for forecasting hourly net electric load of a building given ambient urban temperature. We then quantify the impact of better urban weather modeling by propagating the uncertainty from the temperature model to the load forecasting model. We perform a numerical case study on residential building prototypes located in the city of Pittsburgh. The result indicates that using a better weather model could save 4.34-8.22% of the electricity costs for space-cooling. 
    more » « less