Accurate prediction of product failures and the need for repair services become critical for various reasons, including understanding the warranty performance of manufacturers, defining cost-efficient repair strategies, and compliance with safety standards. The purpose of this study is to use machine learning tools to analyze several parameters crucial for achieving a robust repair service system, including the number of repairs, the time of the next repair ticket or product failure, and the time to repair. A large dataset of over 530,000 repairs and maintenance of medical devices has been investigated by employing the Support Vector Machine (SVM) tool. SVM with four kernel functions is used to forecast the timing of the next failure or repair request in the system for two different products and two different failure types, namely random failure and physical damage. A frequency analysis is also conducted to explore the product quality level based on product failure and the time to repair it. Besides, the best probability distributions are fitted for the number of failures, the time between failures, and the time to repair. The results reveal the value of data analytics and machine learning tools in analyzing post-market product performance and the cost of repair and maintenance operations.
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Machine Learning to Predict Medical Devices Repair and Maintenance Needs
Products often experience different failure and repair needs during their lifespan. Prediction of the type of failure is crucial to the maintenance team for various reasons, such as realizing the device performance, creating standard strategies for repair, and analyzing the trade-off between cost and profit of repair. This study aims to apply machine learning tools to forecast failure types of medical devices and help the maintenance team properly decides on repair strategies based on a limited dataset. Two types of medical devices are used as the case study. The main challenge resides in using the limited attributes of the dataset to forecast product failure type. First, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm is used as a regression model to forecast three attributes, including the time of next failure, repair time, and repair time z-scores. Then, eight classification models, including Naïve Bayes with Bernoulli (NB-Bernoulli), Gaussian (NB-Gaussian), Multinomial (NB-Multinomial) model, Support Vector Machine with linear (SVM-Linear), polynomial (SVM-Poly), sigmoid (SVM-Sigmoid), and radical basis (SVM-RBF) function, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) are used to forecast the failure type. Finally, Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is used to identify maintenance conditions for each product. The results reveal that the classification models could forecast failure type with similar performance, although the attributes of the dataset were limited.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10302619
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- the ASME 2021 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference IDETC/CIE2021
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Accurate prediction of product failures and the need for repair services become critical for various reasons, including understanding the warranty performance of manufacturers, defining cost-efficient repair strategies, and compliance with safety standards. The purpose of this study is to use machine learning tools to analyze several parameters crucial for achieving a robust repair service system, including the number of repairs, the time of the next repair ticket or product failure, and the time to repair. A large data set of over 530,000 repairs and maintenance of medical devices has been investigated by employing the Support Vector Machine (SVM) tool. SVM with four kernel functions is used to forecast the timing of the next failure or repair request in the system for two different products and two different failure types, namely, random failure and physical damage. Frequency analysis is also conducted to explore the product quality level based on product failure and the time to repair it. Besides, the best probability distributions are fitted for the failure count, the time between failures, and the time to repair. The results reveal the value of data analytics and machine learning tools in analyzing post-market product performance and the cost of repair and maintenance operations.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2021-71333
