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1. Excess mortality in Belarus during the COVID-19 pandemic as the case study of a country with limited non-pharmaceutical interventions and limited reporting

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09345-z  

   Kirpich, Alexander; Shishkin, Aleksandr; Weppelmann, Thomas A.; Tchernov, Alexander Perez; Skums, Pavel; Gankin, Yuriy (December 2022, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Public health intervention to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic significantly differed by country since the SARS-CoV-2 spread varied regionally in time and in scale. Since vaccinations were not available until the end of 2020 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained the only strategies to mitigate the pandemic spread at that time. Belarus in Europe is one of a few countries with a high Human Development Index where no lockdowns have ever been implemented and only limited NPIs have taken place for a period of time. Therefore, the Belarusian case was evaluated and compared in terms of the mortality burden. Since the COVID-19 mortality was low, the excess overall mortality was studied for Belarus. Since no overall mortality data have been reported past June 2020 the analysis was complemented by the study of Google Trends funeral-related search queries up until August 2021. Depending on the model, the Belarusian mortality for June of 2020 was 29 to 39% higher than otherwise expected with the corresponding estimated excess death was from 2953 to 3690 while the reported COVID-19 mortality for June 2020 was only 157 cases. The Belarusian excess mortality for June 2020 was higher than for all neighboring countries with an excess of 5% for Poland, 5% for Ukraine, 8% for Russia, 11% for Lithuania and 11% for Latvia. The relationship between Google Trends and mortality time series was studied using Granger’s test and the results were statistically significant. The results for Google Trends searches did vary by key phrase with the largest excess of 138% for April 2020 and 148% for September 2020 was observed for a key phrase “coffin”, while the largest excess of 218% for January 2021 was observed for “funeral services”. In summary, there are indications of the excess overall mortality in Belarus, which is larger than the reported COVID-19-related mortality. 

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2. COVID‐19 Fueled an Elevated Number of Human‐Caused Ignitions in the Western United States During the 2020 Wildfire Season

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005744  

   Jorge, Adam L; Abatzoglou, John T; Fleishman, Erica; Williams, Emily L; Rupp, David E; Jenkins, Jeffrey S; Sadegh, Mojtaba; Kolden, Crystal A; Short, Karen C (February 2025, Earth's Future)

   Abstract The area burned in the western United States during the 2020 fire season was the greatest in the modern era. Here we show that the number of human‐caused fires in 2020 also was elevated, nearly 20% higher than the 1992–2019 average. Although anomalously dry conditions enabled ignitions to spread and contributed to record area burned, these conditions alone do not explain the surge in the number of human‐caused ignitions. We argue that behavioral shifts aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID‐19 altered human‐environment interactions to favor increased ignitions. For example, the number of recreation‐caused wildfires during summer was 36% greater than the 1992–2019 average; this increase was likely a function of increased outdoor recreational activity in response to social distancing measures. We hypothesize that the combination of anomalously dry conditions and COVID‐19 social disruptions contributed to widespread increases in human‐caused ignitions, adding complexity to fire management efforts during the 2020 western US fire season. Knowledge of how social behavior changes indirectly contributed to the increased number of ignitions in the 2020 wildfire season can help inform resource management in an increasingly flammable world. 

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3. Investigating the Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Trace Gases Using Ground-Based MAX-DOAS Observations in Nanjing, China

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12233939  

   Javed, Zeeshan; Wang, Yuhang; Xie, Mingjie; Tanvir, Aimon; Rehman, Abdul; Ji, Xiangguang; Xing, Chengzhi; Shakoor, Awais; Liu, Cheng (December 2020, Remote Sensing)

   null (Ed.)

   The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns all over the world have had various impacts on atmospheric quality. This study aimed to investigate the impact of the lockdown on the air quality of Nanjing, China. The off-axis measurements from state-of-the-art remote-sensing Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscope (MAX-DOAS) were used to observe the trace gases, i.e., Formaldehyde (HCHO), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), and Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), along with the in-situ time series of NO2, SO2 and Ozone (O3). The total dataset covers the span of five months, from 1 December 2019, to 10 May 2020, which comprises of four phases, i.e., the pre lockdown phase (1 December 2019, to 23 January 2020), Phase-1 lockdown (24 January 2020, to 26 February 2020), Phase-2 lockdown (27 February 2020, to 31 March 2020), and post lockdown (1 April 2020, to 10 May 2020). The observed results clearly showed that the concentrations of selected pollutants were lower along with improved air quality during the lockdown periods (Phase-1 and Phase-2) with only the exception of O3, which showed an increasing trend during lockdown. The study concluded that limited anthropogenic activities during the spring festival and lockdown phases improved air quality with a significant reduction of selected trace gases, i.e., NO2 59%, HCHO 38%, and SO2 33%. We also compared our results with 2019 data for available gases. Our results imply that the air pollutants concentration reduction in 2019 during Phase-2 was insignificant, which was due to the business as usual conditions after the Spring Festival (Phase-1) in 2019. In contrast, a significant contamination reduction was observed during Phase-2 in 2020 with the enforcement of a Level-II response in lockdown conditions i.e., the easing of the lockdown situation in some sectors during a specific interval of time. The observed ratio of HCHO to NO2 showed that tropospheric ozone production involved Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) limited scenarios. 

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4. Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 Post Caldera‐Forming Eruption Have Been Anticipated?

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099270  

   Segall, Paul; Anderson, Kyle; Wang, Taiyi_A (August 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract In 2018 Kı̄lauea volcano erupted a decade's worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kı̄lauea re‐erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ∼20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ∼17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ∼1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11–12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of Global Positioning System data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40%–88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption. 

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5. Cotton Response to Foliar Potassium Application in South Texas Dryland

   https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14102422  

   Kommineni, Varshith; Bhandari, Ammar B; Schuster, Greta; Nelson, Shad D (October 2024, Agronomy)

   Potassium (K) deficiency is common in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)-growing areas. This study aims to investigate the effects of different rates of foliar K fertilizer application on three cotton varieties: NG 5711 B3XF (V1), PHY 480 W3FE (V2), and FM 1953GLTP (V3). Potassium fertilizer was dissolved in water and was foliar-applied at 34, 50, and 67 kg ha−1. Cotton plant height (CH) and canopy width (CW) were monitored throughout the growing season. The results showed that foliar K fertilizer application significantly impacted the CH and CW in dry years. Although insignificant, the cotton lint yield increased by 15% and 20% with 34 and 50 kg ha−1 in 2020 and by 9% and 7% with 50 and 67 kg ha−1 in 2021, indicating the potential for improved lint yield with foliar K application in rainfed production systems. Similarly, variety V3 had significantly greater lint and seed yields than V1 in 2020. The average lint yield among the varieties was 32%, and the seed yield was 27% greater in 2020 than in 2021. The cotton fiber color grade was significantly greater at 50 kg ha−1 in 2020 and 67 kg ha−1 in 2021. Cotton variety significantly affected color grade, uniformity, staple length, Col, RD, and Col-b contents in 2020 and 2021. The results suggest that foliar K application can enhance cotton production in rainfed production systems. However, more research is required to quantify varietal and foliar K application rates for improved lint yield and quality. 

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