skip to main content


Title: Revealing Critical Characteristics of Mobility Patterns in New York City During the Onset of COVID-19 Pandemic
New York has become one of the worst-affected COVID-19 hotspots and a pandemic epicenter due to the ongoing crisis. This paper identifies the impact of the pandemic and the effectiveness of government policies on human mobility by analyzing multiple datasets available at both macro and micro levels for New York City. Using data sources related to population density, aggregated population mobility, public rail transit use, vehicle use, hotspot and non-hotspot movement patterns, and human activity agglomeration, we analyzed the inter-borough and intra-borough movement for New York City by aggregating the data at the borough level. We also assessed the internodal population movement amongst hotspot and non-hotspot points of interest for the month of March and April 2020. Results indicate a drop of about 80% in people’s mobility in the city, beginning in mid-March. The movement to and from Manhattan showed the most disruption for both public transit and road traffic. The city saw its first case on March 1, 2020, but disruptions in mobility can be seen only after the second week of March when the shelter in place orders was put in effect. Owing to people working from home and adhering to stay-at-home orders, Manhattan saw the largest disruption to both inter- and intra-borough movement. But the risk of spread of infection in Manhattan turned out to be high because of higher hotspot-linked movements. The stay-at-home restrictions also led to an increased population density in Brooklyn and Queens as people were not commuting to Manhattan. Insights obtained from this study would help policymakers better understand human behavior and their response to the news and governmental policies.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2026814
NSF-PAR ID:
10319984
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Built Environment
Volume:
7
ISSN:
2297-3362
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. null (Ed.)
    Abstract The objective of this study is to examine the transmission risk of COVID-19 based on cross-county population co-location data from Facebook. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States has imposed a major threat to public health, the real economy, and human well-being. With the absence of effective vaccines, the preventive actions of social distancing, travel reduction and stay-at-home orders are recognized as essential non-pharmacologic approaches to control the infection and spatial spread of COVID-19. Prior studies demonstrated that human movement and mobility drove the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 in China. Little is known, however, about the patterns and effects of co-location reduction on cross-county transmission risk of COVID-19. This study utilizes Facebook co-location data for all counties in the United States from March to early May 2020 for conducting spatial network analysis where nodes represent counties and edge weights are associated with the co-location probability of populations of the counties. The analysis examines the synchronicity and time lag between travel reduction and pandemic growth trajectory to evaluate the efficacy of social distancing in ceasing the population co-location probabilities, and subsequently the growth in weekly new cases across counties. The results show that the mitigation effects of co-location reduction appear in the growth of weekly new confirmed cases with one week of delay. The analysis categorizes counties based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and examines co-location patterns within and across groups. Significant segregation is found among different county groups. The results suggest that within-group co-location probabilities (e.g., co-location probabilities among counties with high numbers of cases) remain stable, and social distancing policies primarily resulted in reduced cross-group co-location probabilities (due to travel reduction from counties with large number of cases to counties with low numbers of cases). These findings could have important practical implications for local governments to inform their intervention measures for monitoring and reducing the spread of COVID-19, as well as for adoption in future pandemics. Public policy, economic forecasting, and epidemic modeling need to account for population co-location patterns in evaluating transmission risk of COVID-19 across counties. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns at different geographic scales is crucial for assessing the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as stay-at-home orders) during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this data descriptor, we introduce a regularly-updated multiscale dynamic human mobility flow dataset across the United States, with data starting from March 1st, 2020. By analysing millions of anonymous mobile phone users’ visits to various places provided by SafeGraph, the daily and weekly dynamic origin-to-destination (O-D) population flows are computed, aggregated, and inferred at three geographic scales: census tract, county, and state. There is high correlation between our mobility flow dataset and openly available data sources, which shows the reliability of the produced data. Such a high spatiotemporal resolution human mobility flow dataset at different geographic scales over time may help monitor epidemic spreading dynamics, inform public health policy, and deepen our understanding of human behaviour changes under the unprecedented public health crisis. This up-to-date O-D flow open data can support many other social sensing and transportation applications.

     
    more » « less
  3. Wu, Joseph T. (Ed.)
    Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R t <1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country. 
    more » « less
  4. Background

    Stay-at-home orders were one of the controversial interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. The stay-at-home orders, implemented in 51 states and territories between March 7 and June 30, 2020, impacted the lives of individuals and communities and accelerated the heavy usage of web-based social networking sites. Twitter sentiment analysis can provide valuable insight into public health emergency response measures and allow for better formulation and timing of future public health measures to be released in response to future public health emergencies.

    Objective

    This study evaluated how stay-at-home orders affect Twitter sentiment in the United States. Furthermore, this study aimed to understand the feedback on stay-at-home orders from groups with different circumstances and backgrounds. In addition, we particularly focused on vulnerable groups, including older people groups with underlying medical conditions, small and medium enterprises, and low-income groups.

    Methods

    We constructed a multiperiod difference-in-differences regression model based on the Twitter sentiment geographical index quantified from 7.4 billion geo-tagged tweets data to analyze the dynamics of sentiment feedback on stay-at-home orders across the United States. In addition, we used moderated effects analysis to assess differential feedback from vulnerable groups.

    Results

    We combed through the implementation of stay-at-home orders, Twitter sentiment geographical index, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths in 51 US states and territories. We identified trend changes in public sentiment before and after the stay-at-home orders. Regression results showed that stay-at-home orders generated a positive response, contributing to a recovery in Twitter sentiment. However, vulnerable groups faced greater shocks and hardships during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, economic and demographic characteristics had a significant moderating effect.

    Conclusions

    This study showed a clear positive shift in public opinion about COVID-19, with this positive impact occurring primarily after stay-at-home orders. However, this positive sentiment is time-limited, with 14 days later allowing people to be more influenced by the status quo and trends, so feedback on the stay-at-home orders is no longer positively significant. In particular, negative sentiment is more likely to be generated in states with a large proportion of vulnerable groups, and the policy plays a limited role. The pandemic hit older people, those with underlying diseases, and small and medium enterprises directly but hurt states with cross-cutting economic situations and more complex demographics over time. Based on large-scale Twitter data, this sociological perspective allows us to monitor the evolution of public opinion more directly, assess the impact of social events on public opinion, and understand the heterogeneity in the face of pandemic shocks.

     
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Background Encounters with rats in urban areas increase risk of human exposure to rat-associated zoonotic pathogens and act as a stressor associated with psychological distress. The frequency and nature of human-rat encounters may be altered by social distancing policies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, restaurant closures may reduce food availability for rats and promote rat activity in nearby residential areas, thus increasing public health risks during a period of public health crisis. In this study, we aimed to identify factors associated with increased perceived exposure to rats during a stay-at-home order, describe residents’ encounters with rats relevant to their health and well-being, and identify factors associated with increased use of rodent control. Methods Urban residents in Chicago, a large city with growing concerns about rats and health disparities, completed an online questionnaire including fixed response and open-ended questions during the spring 2020 stay-at-home order. Analyses included ordinal multivariate regression, spatial analysis, and thematic analysis for open-ended responses. Results Overall, 21% of respondents ( n  = 835) reported an increase in rat sightings around their homes during the stay-at-home order and increased rat sightings was positively associated with proximity to restaurants, low-rise apartment buildings, and rat feces in the home ( p  ≤ 0.01). Many respondents described feeling unsafe using their patio or yard, and afraid of rats entering their home or spreading disease. Greater engagement with rodent control was associated with property ownership, information about rat control, and areas with lower incomes ( p  ≤ 0.01). Conclusions More frequent rat encounters may be an unanticipated public health concern during periods of social distancing, especially in restaurant-dense areas or in low-rise apartment buildings. Rat presence may also limit residents’ ability to enjoy nearby outdoor spaces, which otherwise might buffer stress experienced during a stay-at-home order. Proactive rat control may be needed to mitigate rat-associated health risks during future stay-at-home orders. 
    more » « less