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1. Online Sampling of Temporal Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3442202  

   Ahmed, Nesreen K.; Duffield, Nick; Rossi, Ryan A. (August 2021, ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data)

   Temporal networks representing a stream of timestamped edges are seemingly ubiquitous in the real world. However, the massive size and continuous nature of these networks make them fundamentally challenging to analyze and leverage for descriptive and predictive modeling tasks. In this work, we propose a general framework for temporal network sampling with unbiased estimation. We develop online, single-pass sampling algorithms, and unbiased estimators for temporal network sampling. The proposed algorithms enable fast, accurate, and memory-efficient statistical estimation of temporal network patterns and properties. In addition, we propose a temporally decaying sampling algorithm with unbiased estimators for studying networks that evolve in continuous time, where the strength of links is a function of time, and the motif patterns are temporally weighted. In contrast to the prior notion of a △ t -temporal motif, the proposed formulation and algorithms for counting temporally weighted motifs are useful for forecasting tasks in networks such as predicting future links, or a future time-series variable of nodes and links. Finally, extensive experiments on a variety of temporal networks from different domains demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. A detailed ablation study is provided to understand the impact of the various components of the proposed framework. 

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2. A Modern Gauss–Markov Theorem

   https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19255  

   Hansen, Bruce E. (January 2022, Econometrica)

   This paper presents finite‐sample efficiency bounds for the core econometric problem of estimation of linear regression coefficients. We show that the classical Gauss–Markov theorem can be restated omitting the unnatural restriction to linear estimators, without adding any extra conditions. Our results are lower bounds on the variances of unbiased estimators. These lower bounds correspond to the variances of the the least squares estimator and the generalized least squares estimator, depending on the assumption on the error covariances. These results show that we can drop the label “linear estimator” from the pedagogy of the Gauss–Markov theorem. Instead of referring to these estimators as BLUE, they can legitimately be called BUE (best unbiased estimators). 

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3. Debiasing Functions of Private Statistics in Postprocessing

   https://doi.org/10.4230/LIPIcs.FORC.2025.17  

   Calmon, Flavio; Du, Elbert; Dwork, Cynthia; Finley, Brian; Franguridi, Grigory (January 2025, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik)

   Bun, Mark (Ed.)

   Given a differentially private unbiased estimate q̃ = q(D) +ν of a statistic q(D), we wish to obtain unbiased estimates of functions of q(D), such as 1/q(D), solely through post-processing of q̃, with no further access to the confidential dataset D. To this end, we adapt the deconvolution method used for unbiased estimation in the statistical literature, deriving unbiased estimators for a broad family of twice-differentiable functions - those that are tempered distributions - when the privacy-preserving noise ν is drawn from the Laplace distribution (Dwork et al., 2006). We further extend this technique to functions other than tempered distributions, deriving approximately optimal estimators that are unbiased for values in a user-specified interval (possibly extending to ± ∞). We use these results to derive an unbiased estimator for private means when the size n of the dataset is not publicly known. In a numerical application, we find that a mechanism that uses our estimator to return an unbiased sample size and mean outperforms a mechanism that instead uses the previously known unbiased privacy mechanism for such means (Kamath et al., 2023). We also apply our estimators to develop unbiased transformation mechanisms for per-record differential privacy, a privacy concept in which the privacy guarantee is a public function of a record’s value (Seeman et al., 2024). Our mechanisms provide stronger privacy guarantees than those in prior work (Finley et al., 2024) by using Laplace, rather than Gaussian, noise. Finally, using a different approach, we go beyond Laplace noise by deriving unbiased estimators for polynomials under the weak condition that the noise distribution has sufficiently many moments. 

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4. Making Steppingstones out of Stumbling Blocks: A Bayesian Model Evidence Estimator with Application to Groundwater Transport Model Selection

   https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081579  

   Elshall, Ahmed S.; Ye, Ming (August 2019, Water)

   Elshall, Ahmed; Ye, Ming (Ed.)

   Bayesian model evidence (BME) is a measure of the average fit of a model to observation data given all the parameter values that the model can assume. By accounting for the trade-off between goodness-of-fit and model complexity, BME is used for model selection and model averaging purposes. For strict Bayesian computation, the theoretically unbiased Monte Carlo based numerical estimators are preferred over semi-analytical solutions. This study examines five BME numerical estimators and asks how accurate estimation of the BME is important for penalizing model complexity. The limiting cases for numerical BME estimators are the prior sampling arithmetic mean estimator (AM) and the posterior sampling harmonic mean (HM) estimator, which are straightforward to implement, yet they result in underestimation and overestimation, respectively. We also consider the path sampling methods of thermodynamic integration (TI) and steppingstone sampling (SS) that sample multiple intermediate distributions that link the prior and the posterior. Although TI and SS are theoretically unbiased estimators, they could have a bias in practice arising from numerical implementation. For example, sampling errors of some intermediate distributions can introduce bias. We propose a variant of SS, namely the multiple one-steppingstone sampling (MOSS) that is less sensitive to sampling errors. We evaluate these five estimators using a groundwater transport model selection problem. SS and MOSS give the least biased BME estimation at an efficient computational cost. If the estimated BME has a bias that covariates with the true BME, this would not be a problem because we are interested in BME ratios and not their absolute values. On the contrary, the results show that BME estimation bias can be a function of model complexity. Thus, biased BME estimation results in inaccurate penalization of more complex models, which changes the model ranking. This was less observed with SS and MOSS as with the three other methods. 

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5. Unbiased smoothing using particle independent Metropolis–Hastings

   Middleton, L.; Deligiannidis, G.; Doucet, A.; Jacob, P. E. (April 2019, AISTATS)

   We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These methods provide consistent but biased estimators when run for a finite time. We propose a simple way of coupling two MCMC chains built using Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings (PIMH) to produce unbiased smoothing estimators. Unbiased estimators are appealing in the context of parallel computing, and facilitate the construction of confidence intervals. The proposed scheme only requires access to off-the-shelf Particle Filters (PF) and is thus easier to implement than recently proposed unbiased smoothers. The approach is demonstrated on a Lévy-driven stochastic volatility model and a stochastic kinetic model. 

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