International environmental initiatives, such as the Bonn Challenge and the UN Decade on Restoration, have prompted countries to put the management and restoration of forest landscapes at the center of their land use and climate policies. To support these goals, many governments are promoting forest landscape restoration and management through financial forestry incentives, a form of payment for ecosystem services. Since 1996, Guatemala has implemented a series of forestry incentives that promote active forest landscape restoration and management on private and communal lands. These programs have been widely hailed as a success with nearly 600 000 ha enrolled since 1998. However, there has been no systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these programs on preserving and restoring Guatemalan forests. This study evaluates the impacts of over 16 000 individual PES projects funded through two incentive programs using a synthetic control counterfactual. Overall, a program for smallholders resulted in lower rates of forest loss, while a program for industrial timber owners led to greater gains in forest cover. Across policies, we found dramatically higher forest cover increases from restoration projects (15% forest cover increase) compared to plantation and agroforestry projects (3%–6% increase in forest cover). Projects that protected natural forest also showed a 6% reduction in forest loss. We found forest cover increases to be under 10% of total enrolled area, although positive local spillovers suggest this is an underestimate. Restoration projects show the most promise at promoting forest landscape restoration, but these benefits need to be weighed against priorities like resilience and rural development, which may be better served by other projects.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10339178
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Climate
- Volume:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2624-9553
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
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Our first objective is to identify and characterize agent functional types (AFTs) of family forest owners in the northeastern United States using a set of contingent behaviour questions contained in a mail survey. We establish AFTs as a form of dimension reduction, effectively casting landowners into a typology in which each type (AFT) has distinct probabilities of tree harvesting in response to forest insects. Our analysis identifies three functional types of landowners: ‘Cutters’ (46% of respondents; high intent to harvest trees impacted by invasive forest insects), ‘Responsive Cutters’ (42% of respondents; intent sensitive to insect impact severity), and ‘Non‐cutters’ (12% of respondents; low intent to cut).
Our second objective is to model AFT membership to predict the distribution of AFTs across the landscape. Predictors are chosen from a set of survey, geographic and demographic features. Our best AFT‐prediction model has three predictor variables: parcel size (hectares of forest), geographical region, and town‐level forested fraction. Application of the model provides a high‐resolution probability distribution of AFTs across the landscape.
By coupling human and insect behaviour, our results allow for holistic assessments of how invasive forest insects disturb forests, inclusive of the management response to these pests.
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Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. -
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Abstract Climate change is altering disturbance regimes and recovery rates of forests globally. The future of these forests will depend on how climate change interacts with management activities. Forest managers are in critical need of strategies to manage the effects of climate change.
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