Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this article, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: (1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference, and to better capture the temporal uncertainties within tasks, cST-ML performs as a rolling window within each task; (2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic-related features; (3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models especially when obvious traffic dynamics and temporal uncertainties are presented.
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Multi-Agent-Based Traffic Prediction and Traffic Classification for Autonomic Network Management Systems for Future Networks
Recently, a multi-agent based network automation architecture has been proposed. The architecture is named multi-agent based network automation of the network management system (MANA-NMS). The architectural framework introduced atomized network functions (ANFs). ANFs should be autonomous, atomic, and intelligent agents. Such agents should be implemented as an independent decision element, using machine/deep learning (ML/DL) as an internal cognitive and reasoning part. Using these atomic and intelligent agents as a building block, a MANA-NMS can be composed using the appropriate functions. As a continuation toward implementation of the architecture MANA-NMS, this paper presents a network traffic prediction agent (NTPA) and a network traffic classification agent (NTCA) for a network traffic management system. First, an NTPA is designed and implemented using DL algorithms, i.e., long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), and convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms as a reasoning and cognitive part of the agent. Similarly, an NTCA is designed using decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbors (K-NN), support vector machine (SVM), and naive Bayes (NB) as a cognitive component in the agent design. We then measure the NTPA prediction accuracy, training latency, prediction latency, and computational resource consumption. The results indicate that the LSTM-based NTPA outperforms compared to GRU, MLP, and CNN-based NTPA in terms of prediction accuracy, and prediction latency. We also evaluate the accuracy of the classifier, training latency, classification latency, and computational resource consumption of NTCA using the ML models. The performance evaluation shows that the DT-based NTCA performs the best.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1757207
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10347522
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Future Internet
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1999-5903
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 230
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this paper, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: 1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference; 2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic related features; 3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14080230
