Abstract The physical processes of heat exchange between lakes and the surrounding atmosphere are important in simulating and predicting terrestrial surface energy balance. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are the dominant physical process controlling ice growth and decay on the lake surface, as well as having influence on regional climate. While one-dimensional lake models have been used in simulating environmental changes in ice dynamics and water temperature, understanding the seasonal to daily cycles of lake surface energy balance and its relationship to lake thermal properties, atmospheric conditions, and how those are represented in models is still an open area of research. We evaluated a pair of one-dimensional lake models, Freshwater Lake (FLake) and the General Lake Model (GLM), to compare modeled latent and sensible heat fluxes against observed data collected by an eddy covariance tower during a 1-yr period in 2017, using Lake Mendota in Madison, Wisconsin, as our study site. We hypothesized transitional periods of ice cover as a leading source of model uncertainty, and we instead found that the models failed to simulate accurate values for large positive heat fluxes that occurred from late August into late December. Our results ultimately showed that one-dimensional models are effective inmore »
This content will become publicly available on October 1, 2023
Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir’s stratification and ice cover to climate warming
Abstract Water temperature, ice cover, and lake stratification are important physical properties of lakes and reservoirs that control mixing as well as bio-geo-chemical processes and thus influence the water quality. We used an ensemble of vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models driven with regional climate projections to calculate water temperature, stratification, and ice cover under the A1B emission scenario for the German drinking water reservoir Lichtenberg. We used an analysis of variance method to estimate the contributions of the considered sources of uncertainty on the ensemble output. For all simulated variables, epistemic uncertainty, which is related to the model structure, is the dominant source throughout the simulation period. Nonetheless, the calculated trends are coherent among the five models and in line with historical observations. The ensemble predicts an increase in surface water temperature of 0.34 K per decade, a lengthening of the summer stratification of 3.2 days per decade, as well as decreased probabilities of the occurrence of ice cover and winter inverse stratification by 2100. These expected changes are likely to influence the water quality of the reservoir. Similar trends are to be expected in other reservoirs and lakes in comparable regions.
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10354283
- Journal Name:
- Aquatic Sciences
- Volume:
- 84
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1015-1621
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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