skip to main content

Title: Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Embedding for Joint Crowd Flow and Transition Predictions: A Wi-Fi-based Mobility Case Study
Crowd mobility prediction, in particular, forecasting flows at and transitions across different locations, is essential for crowd analytics and management in spacious environments featured with large gathering. We propose GAEFT, a novel crowd mobility analytics system based on the multi-task graph attention neural network to forecast crowd flows (inflows/outflows) and transitions. Specifically, we leverage the collective and sanitized campus Wi-Fi association data provided by our university information technology service and conduct a relatable case study. Our comprehensive data analysis reveals the important challenges of sparsity and skewness, as well as the complex spatio-temporal variations within the crowd mobility data. Therefore, we design a novel spatio-temporal clustering method to group Wi-Fi access points (APs) with similar transition features, and obtain more regular mobility features for model inputs. We then propose an attention-based graph embedding design to capture the correlations among the crowd flows and transitions, and jointly predict the AP-level flows as well as transitions across buildings and clusters through a multi-task formulation. Extensive experimental studies using more than 28 million association records collected during 2020-2021 academic year validate the excellent accuracy of GAEFT in forecasting dynamic and complex crowd mobility.
Authors:
; ; ;
Award ID(s):
2118102
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10356956
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the ACM on Interactive, Mobile, Wearable and Ubiquitous Technologies
Volume:
5
Issue:
4
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
1 to 24
ISSN:
2474-9567
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. In this paper, we propose MetaMobi, a novel spatio-temporal multi-dots connectivity-aware modeling and Meta model update approach for crowd Mobility learning. MetaMobi analyzes real-world Wi-Fi association data collected from our campus wireless infrastructure, with the goal towards enabling a smart connected campus. Specifically, MetaMobi aims at addressing the following two major challenges with existing crowd mobility sensing system designs: (a) how to handle the spatially, temporally, and contextually varying features in large-scale human crowd mobility distributions; and (b) how to adapt to the impacts of such crowd mobility patterns as well as the dynamic changes in crowd sensing infrastructures. To handle the first challenge, we design a novel multi-dots connectivity-aware learning approach, which jointly learns the crowd flow time series of multiple buildings with fusion of spatial graph connectivities and temporal attention mechanisms. Furthermore, to overcome the adaptivity issues due to changes in the crowd sensing infrastructures (e.g., installation of new ac- cess points), we further design a novel meta model update approach with Bernoulli dropout, which mitigates the over- fitting behaviors of the model given few-shot distributions of new crowd mobility datasets. Extensive experimental evaluations based on the real-world campus wireless dataset (including over 76 million Wi-Fi association andmore »disassociation records) demonstrate the accuracy, effectiveness, and adaptivity of MetaMobi in forecasting the campus crowd flows, with 30% higher accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art approaches.« less
  2. Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID- 19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers on the use of GNNs to forecast COVID-19 incidence dynamics and our methods are competitive to existing methods. We show that the spatial and temporal dynamic mobility graph leveraged by the graph neural network enables better long-term forecasting performance compared to baselines.
  3. Due to the potentially significant benefits for society, forecasting spatio-temporal societal events is currently attracting considerable attention from researchers. Beyond merely predicting the occurrence of future events, practitioners are now looking for information about specific subtypes of future events in order to allocate appropriate amounts and types of resources to manage such events and any associated social risks. However, forecasting event subtypes is far more complex than merely extending binary prediction to cover multiple classes, as 1) different locations require different models to handle their characteristic event subtype patterns due to spatial heterogeneity; 2) historically, many locations have only experienced a incomplete set of event subtypes, thus limiting the local model’s ability to predict previously “unseen” subtypes; and 3) the subtle discrepancy among different event subtypes requires more discriminative and profound representations of societal events. In order to address all these challenges concurrently, we propose a Spatial Incomplete Multi-task Deep leArning (SIMDA) framework that is capable of effectively forecasting the subtypes of future events. The new framework formulates spatial locations into tasks to handle spatial heterogeneity in event subtypes, and learns a joint deep representation of subtypes across tasks. Furthermore, based on the “first law of geography”, spatiallyclosed tasks sharemore »similar event subtype patterns such that adjacent tasks can share knowledge with each other effectively. Optimizing the proposed model amounts to a new nonconvex and strongly-coupled problem, we propose a new algorithm based on Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) that can decompose the complex problem into subproblems that can be solved efficiently. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.« less
  4. Brain large-scale dynamics is constrained by the heterogeneity of intrinsic anatomical substrate. Little is known how the spatiotemporal dynamics adapt for the heterogeneous structural connectivity (SC). Modern neuroimaging modalities make it possible to study the intrinsic brain activity at the scale of seconds to minutes. Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) and functional MRI reveals the large-scale SC across different brain regions. Electrophysiological methods (i.e. MEG/EEG) provide direct measures of neural activity and exhibits complex neurobiological temporal dynamics which could not be solved by fMRI. However, most of existing multimodal analytical methods collapse the brain measurements either in space or time domain and fail to capture the spatio-temporal circuit dynamics. In this paper, we propose a novel spatio-temporal graph Transformer model to integrate the structural and functional connectivity in both spatial and temporal domain. The proposed method learns the heterogeneous node and graph representation via contrastive learning and multi-head attention based graph Transformer using multimodal brain data (i.e. fMRI, MRI, MEG and behavior performance). The proposed contrastive graph Transformer representation model incorporates the heterogeneity map constrained by T1-to-T2-weighted (T1w/T2w) to improve the model fit to structurefunction interactions. The experimental results with multimodal resting state brain measurements demonstrate the proposed method couldmore »highlight the local properties of large-scale brain spatio-temporal dynamics and capture the dependence strength between functional connectivity and behaviors. In summary, the proposed method enables the complex brain dynamics explanation for different modal variants.« less
  5. As a decisive part in the success of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), spatio-temporal predictive modeling for crowd movements is a challenging task particularly considering scenarios where societal events drive mobility behavior deviated from the normality. While tremendous progress has been made to model high-level spatio-temporal regularities with deep learning, most, if not all of the existing methods are neither aware of the dynamic interactions among multiple transport modes nor adaptive to unprecedented volatility brought by potential societal events. In this paper, we are therefore motivated to improve the canonical spatio-temporal network (ST-Net) from two perspectives: (1) design a heterogeneous mobility information network (HMIN) to explicitly represent intermodality in multimodal mobility; (2) propose a memory-augmented dynamic filter generator (MDFG) to generate sequence-specific parameters in an on-the-fly fashion for various scenarios. The enhanced event-aware spatio-temporal network, namely EAST-Net, is evaluated on several real-world datasets with a wide variety and coverage of societal events. Both quantitative and qualitative experimental results verify the superiority of our approach compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. Code and data are published on https://github.com/underdoc-wang/EAST-Net.