Climate change is altering biogeochemical, metabolic, and ecological functions in lakes across the globe. Historically, mountain lakes in temperate regions have been unproductive because of brief ice‐free seasons, a snowmelt‐driven hydrograph, cold temperatures, and steep topography with low vegetation and soil cover. We tested the relative importance of winter and summer weather, watershed characteristics, and water chemistry as drivers of phytoplankton dynamics. Using boosted regression tree models for 28 mountain lakes in Colorado, we examined regional, intraseasonal, and interannual drivers of variability in chlorophyll
Globally, phytoplankton abundance is increasing in lakes as a result of climate change and land‐use change. The relative importance of climate and land‐use drivers has been examined primarily for mesotrophic and eutrophic lakes. However, oligotrophic lakes show different sensitivity to climate and land‐use drivers than mesotrophic and eutrophic lakes, necessitating further exploration of the relative contribution of the two drivers of change to increased phytoplankton abundance. Here, we investigated how air temperature (a driver related to climate change) and nutrient load (a driver related to land‐use and climate change) interact to alter water quality in oligotrophic Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire, USA. We used long‐term data and the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic General Lake Model (GLM) coupled with Aquatic EcoDyanmics (AED) modules to simulate water quality. Over the 31‐year simulation, summer median chlorophyll‐
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10360079
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 56
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract a as a proxy for lake phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of the previous winter, as others have found. However, even in years with average SWE, summer precipitation extremes and warming enhanced phytoplankton biomass. Peak seasonal phytoplankton biomass coincided with the warmest water temperatures and lowest nitrogen‐to‐phosphorus ratios. Although links between snowpack, lake temperature, nutrients, and organic‐matter dynamics are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of change in high‐elevation lakes, our results highlight the additional influence of summer conditions on lake productivity in response to ongoing changes in climate. Continued changes in the timing, type, and magnitude of precipitation in combination with other global‐change drivers (e.g., nutrient deposition) will affect production in mountain lakes, potentially shifting these historically oligotrophic lakes toward new ecosystem states. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these drivers and pattern at multiple scales will allow us to anticipate ecological consequences of global change better. -
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Abstract Laboratory studies have revealed that
Daphnia species can evolve to tolerate toxic cyanobacteria in the diet. Specifically,Daphnia from eutrophic lakes where cyanobacteria are common tend to have higher growth rates and survival when fed toxic cyanobacteria than populations from oligotrophic environments with low abundance of cyanobacteria.We conducted an in‐lake mesocosm (i.e. limnocorral) experiment during the autumn of 2009 to assess the effects of nutrient enrichment on clonal evolution in
Daphnia pulicaria . As nutrient enrichment often favours grazing‐resistant cyanobacteria, we hypothesised that fertilisation would influence the genotypic composition ofD. pulicaria that vary in tolerance to cyanobacteria. Mesocosms were fertilised to manipulate phytoplankton and cyanobacterial abundance and concentrations of a cyanobacterial toxin (microcystin). Thus, half of the mesocosms were high‐nutrient and half were low‐nutrient. We then stocked half of the mesocosms with a mixture of six genetically‐distinctD. pulicaria genotypes (three genotypes from oligotrophic lakes and three from eutrophic lakes) leaving half of the mesocosmsDaphnia ‐free to assess grazing effects, using a fully factorial design.When compared to the low nutrient treatment, high nutrient mesocosms had nearly five‐fold higher chlorophyll
a concentrations, eight‐fold higher cyanobacterial dry biomass, and three‐fold higher microcystin levels at the start of the experiment. In contrast, low nutrient mesocosms had phytoplankton concentrations typical of mesotrophic lakes.Fertilisation strongly affected
Daphnia genetic diversity in the mesocosms. FinalDaphnia genotype diversity in the mesocosms with low‐cyanobacteria (richness = 5.83, Shannon–Weiner index = 1.55, evenness = 0.88) was similar to the initial stocked diversity (richness = 5.50, Shannon–Weiner index = 1.48, evenness = 0.87). In contrast, final diversity in fertilised mesocosms with high cyanobacteria was greatly reduced (richness = 2, Shannon–Weiner index = 0.17), with oneDaphnia genotype that originated from the most‐eutrophic lake being highly dominant (evenness = 0.25). Thus, eutrophication mediated strong clonal selection of a cyanobacteria‐tolerantDaphnia genotype over just 10 weeks.By the end of the experiment,
Daphnia significantly reduced phytoplankton biomass in the high‐nutrient, but not in the low‐nutrient treatment. This difference in effect size was largely driven by the five‐fold higher initial phytoplankton biomass in the high‐nutrient treatment. Thus, the ability ofDaphnia to reduce phytoplankton biomass in eutrophic lakes may be driven more so by the abundance of planktivorous fishes, as opposed to the prevalence of cyanobacteria and their associated toxins. -
Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment. As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.more » « less
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We conducted a macroscale study of 2,210 shallow lakes (mean depth ≤ 3m or a maximum depth ≤ 5m) in the Upper Midwestern and Northeastern U.S. We asked: What are the patterns and drivers of shallow lake total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a (CHLa), and TP–CHLa relationships at the macroscale, how do these differ from those for 4,360 non-shallow lakes, and do results differ by hydrologic connectivity class? To answer this question, we assembled the LAGOS-NE Shallow Lakes dataset described herein, a dataset derived from existing LAGOS-NE, LAGOS-DEPTH, and LAGOS-CLIMATE datasets. Response data variables were the median of available summer (e.g., 15 June to 15 September) values of total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (CHLa). Predictor variables were assembled at two spatial scales for incorporation into hierarchical models. At the local or lake-specific scale (including the individual lake, its inter-lake watershed [iws] or corresponding HU12 watershed), variables included those representing land use/cover, hydrology, climate, morphometry, and acid deposition. At the regional scale (e.g., HU4 watershed), variables included a smaller set of predictor variables for hydrology and land use/cover. The dataset also includes the unique identifier assigned by LAGOS-NE(lagoslakeid); the latitude and longitude of the study lakes; their maximum and mean depths along with a depth classification of Shallow or non-Shallow; connectivity class (i.e., whether a lake was classified as connected (with inlets and outlets) or unconnected (lacking inlets); and the zone id for the HU4 to which each lake belongs. Along with the database, we provide the R scripts for the hierarchical models predicting TP or CHLa (TPorCHL_predictive_model.R), and the TP—CHLa relationship (TP_CHL_CSI_Model.R) for depth and connectivity subsets of the study lakes.more » « less
