As the number of detected gravitational wave sources increases with increased sensitivity of the gravitational wave observatories, observing strongly lensed pairs of events will become a real possibility. Lensed gravitational wave (GW) events will have very accurately measured time delays and magnification ratios. Suppose we identify the lens system corresponding to a GW event in the electromagnetic domain and also measure the redshifts of the lens and the host galaxy; in that case, we can use the GW event to constrain important astrophysical parameters of the lens system. As most lensing events have image separations that are significantly smaller than the GW event localization uncertainties, we must develop diagnostics that will aid in the robust identification of such lensed events. We define a new statistic based on the joint probability of lensing observables that can be used to discriminate lensed pairs of events from the unlensed ones. To this end, we carry out simulations of lensed GW events to infer the distribution of the relative time delays and relative magnifications subdivided by the type of lensed images. We compare this distribution to a similar one obtained for random unlensed event pairs. Our statistic can improve the search pipelines’ existing ranking approach to down-select event pairs for joint parameter estimates. The distributions we obtain can further be used to define more informative priors in joint parameter estimation analyses for candidate lensed events.
We present
- Award ID(s):
- 1912649
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10362223
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 925
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 58
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 58"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
ABSTRACT -
null (Ed.)ABSTRACT Joint multimessenger observations with gravitational waves and electromagnetic (EM) data offer new insights into the astrophysical studies of compact objects. The third Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observing run began on 2019 April 1; during the 11 months of observation, there have been 14 compact binary systems candidates for which at least one component is potentially a neutron star. Although intensive follow-up campaigns involving tens of ground and space-based observatories searched for counterparts, no EM counterpart has been detected. Following on a previous study of the first six months of the campaign, we present in this paper the next five months of the campaign from 2019 October to 2020 March. We highlight two neutron star–black hole candidates (S191205ah and S200105ae), two binary neutron star candidates (S191213g and S200213t), and a binary merger with a possible neutron star and a ‘MassGap’ component, S200115j. Assuming that the gravitational-wave (GW) candidates are of astrophysical origin and their location was covered by optical telescopes, we derive possible constraints on the matter ejected during the events based on the non-detection of counterparts. We find that the follow-up observations during the second half of the third observing run did not meet the necessary sensitivity to constrain the source properties of the potential GW candidate. Consequently, we suggest that different strategies have to be used to allow a better usage of the available telescope time. We examine different choices for follow-up surveys to optimize sky localization coverage versus observational depth to understand the likelihood of counterpart detection.more » « less
-
more » « less
ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.
-
more » « less
When strong gravitational lenses are to be used as an astrophysical or cosmological probe, models of their mass distributions are often needed. We present a new, time-efficient automation code for the uniform modeling of strongly lensed quasars with
GLEE , a lens-modeling software for multiband data. By using the observed positions of the lensed quasars and the spatially extended surface brightness distribution of the host galaxy of the lensed quasar, we obtain a model of the mass distribution of the lens galaxy. We applied this uniform modeling pipeline to a sample of nine strongly lensed quasars for which images were obtained with the Wide Field Camera 3 of theHubble Space Telescope. The models show well-reconstructed light components and a good alignment between mass and light centroids in most cases. We find that the automated modeling code significantly reduces the input time during the modeling process for the user. The time for preparing the required input files is reduced by a factor of 3 from ~3 h to about one hour. The active input time during the modeling process for the user is reduced by a factor of 10 from ~ 10 h to about one hour per lens system. This automated uniform modeling pipeline can efficiently produce uniform models of extensive lens-system samples that can be used for further cosmological analysis. A blind test that compared our results with those of an independent automated modeling pipeline based on the modeling softwareLenstronomy revealed important lessons. Quantities such as Einstein radius, astrometry, mass flattening, and position angle are generally robustly determined. Other quantities, such as the radial slope of the mass density profile and predicted time delays, depend crucially on the quality of the data and on the accuracy with which the point spread function is reconstructed. Better data and/or a more detailed analysis are necessary to elevate our automated models to cosmography grade. Nevertheless, our pipeline enables the quick selection of lenses for follow-up and further modeling, which significantly speeds up the construction of cosmography-grade models. This important step forward will help us to take advantage of the increase in the number of lenses that is expected in the coming decade, which is an increase of several orders of magnitude. -
more » « less
Abstract Gravitational-wave (GW) radiation from a coalescing compact binary is a standard siren, as the luminosity distance of each event can be directly measured from the amplitude of the signal. One possibility to constrain cosmology using the GW siren is to perform statistical inference on a population of binary black hole (BBH) events. In essence, this statistical method can be viewed as follows. We can modify the shape of the distribution of observed BBH events by changing the cosmological parameters until it eventually matches the distribution constructed from an astrophysical population model, thereby allowing us to determine the cosmological parameters. In this work, we derive the Cramér–Rao bound for both cosmological parameters and those governing the astrophysical population model from this statistical dark siren method by examining the Fisher information contained in the event distribution. Our study provides analytical insights and enables fast yet accurate estimations of the statistical accuracy of dark siren cosmology. Furthermore, we consider the bias in cosmology due to unmodeled substructures in the merger rate and mass distribution. We find that a 1% deviation in the astrophysical model can lead to a more than 1% error in the Hubble constant. This could limit the accuracy of dark siren cosmology when there are more than 104BBH events detected.
