We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine responses of 12 ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in precipitation. Ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO2, warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water‐use efficiency with elevated CO2and higher fertility with warming compensate for responses to drought. Response to elevated CO2, warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors: (1) changes in total ecosystem N and P, (2) changes in N and P distribution between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO2and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The contributions of these four attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil to vegetation dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grasslands, the C gain is also associated with increased soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, C gains resulted from N accumulation. Because of differences in N versus P cycle openness and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N and P attribution factors do not always parallel one another. Differences among ecosystems in C‐nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. We suggest that future studies quantify the openness of the N and P cycles and changes in the distribution of C, N, and P among ecosystem components, which currently limit understanding of nutrient effects on C sequestration and responses to elevated CO2and climate change.
Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme‐mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial‐ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C‐N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12‐year CO2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO2fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C‐N‐associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO2concentration. Our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem‐level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10363062
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1935-1950
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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