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Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO2flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2(pCO2products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2‐driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO2‐forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2dominates the ocean CO2sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.
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Alternate Histories: Synthetic Large Ensembles of Sea‐Air CO 2 Flux
Abstract We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea‐air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from four observation‐based products over 1985–2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO2flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the rank of the observed trends within the distribution of statistically modeled synthetic trends during these periods. Over the decade 1990–1999, three of four observation‐based products exhibit small negative trends in globally integrated sea‐air CO2flux (i.e., enhanced ocean CO2absorption with time) that are within one standard deviation of the mean in their respective synthetic ensembles. Over the decade 2000–2009, however, three products show large negative trends in globally integrated sea‐air CO2flux that have a low rate of occurrence in their synthetic ensembles. The largest positive trends in global and Southern Ocean flux over 1990–1999 and the largest negative trends over 2000–2009 fall nearly two standard deviations away from the mean in their ensembles. Our approach provides a new perspective on the important role of internal variability in sea‐air CO2flux trends, and furthers understanding of the role of internal and external processes in driving observed sea‐air CO2flux variability.
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- PAR ID:
- 10368768
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0886-6236
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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