An official website of the United States government
Abstract Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences.
more »
« less
Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change
Abstract Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified “bright spots,” where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present‐day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., “bright spots”) and lower coral cover (i.e., “dark spots”) than regionally expected. In addition, using 4‐km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical‐cyclone frequencies, and human‐population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1829393
- PAR ID:
- 10372423
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 15
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 4509-4522
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Coral abundance continues to decline on tropical reefs around the world, and this trend suggests that coral reefs may not persist beyond the current century. In contrast, this study describes the near-complete mortality of corals on the outer reef (10 m and 17 m depth) of the north shore of Mo’orea, French Polynesia, from 2005 to 2010, followed by unprecedented recovery from 2011 to 2017. Intense corallivory and a cyclone drove coral cover from 33–48% to <3% by 2010, but over the following seven years, recovery occurred through rapid population growth (up to 12% cover y−1) to 25–74% cover by 2017. The thirteen-year, U-shape trajectory of coral cover over time created by the loss and replacement of millions of corals through sexual reproduction underscores the potential for beneficial genetic responses to environmental conditions for at least one genus,Pocillopora. The high ecological resilience of this coral community appears to have been enhanced by variation among genera in the susceptibility to declining cover, and the capacity for population growth (i.e., response diversity). These results suggest that the outer coral communities of Mo’orea may be poised for genetic changes that could affect their capacity to persistence.more » « less
-
Climate change is radically altering coral reef ecosystems, mainly through increasingly frequent and severe bleaching events. Yet, some reefs have exhibited higher thermal tolerance after bleaching severely the first time. To understand changes in thermal tolerance in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), we compiled four decades of temperature, coral cover, coral bleaching, and mortality data, including three mass bleaching events during the 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 El Niño heatwaves. Higher heat resistance in later bleaching events was detected in the dominant framework-building genus, Pocillopora, while other coral taxa exhibited similar susceptibility across events. Genetic analyses of Pocillopora spp . colonies and their algal symbionts (2014 to 2016) revealed that one of two Pocillopora lineages present in the region ( Pocillopora “ type 1”) increased its association with thermotolerant algal symbionts ( Durusdinium glynnii ) during the 2015 to 2016 heat stress event. This lineage experienced lower bleaching and mortality compared with Pocillopora “type 3”, which did not acquire D. glynnii . Under projected thermal stress, ETP reefs may be able to preserve high coral cover through the 2060s or later, mainly composed of Pocillopora colonies that associate with D. glynnii . However, although the low-diversity, high-cover reefs of the ETP could illustrate a potential functional state for some future reefs, this state may only be temporary unless global greenhouse gas emissions and resultant global warming are curtailed.more » « less
-
Abstract Nutrient pollution is altering coastal ecosystems worldwide. On coral reefs, excess nutrients can favor the production of algae at the expense of reef‐building corals, yet the role of nutrients in driving community changes such as shifts from coral to macroalgae is not well understood. Here we investigate the potential role of anthropogenic nutrient loading in driving recent coral‐to‐macroalgae phase shifts on reefs in the lagoons surrounding the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia. We use nitrogen (N) tissue content and stable isotopes (δ15N) in an abundant macroalga (Turbinaria ornata) together with empirical models of nutrient discharge to describe spatial and temporal patterns of nutrient enrichment in the lagoons. We then employ time series data to test whether recent increases in macroalgae are associated with nutrients. Our results revealed that patterns of N enrichment were linked to several factors, including rainfall, wave‐driven circulation, and distance from anthropogenic nutrient sources, especially human sewage. Reefs near large watersheds, where inputs of N from sewage and agriculture are high, have been consistently enriched in N for at least the last decade. In many of these areas, corals have decreased and macroalgae have increased, while reefs with lower levels of N input have maintained high cover of coral and low cover of macroalgae. Importantly, these patchy phase shifts to macroalgae have occurred despite substantial island‐wide increases in the density and biomass of herbivorous fishes over the time period. Together, these results indicate that nutrient loading may be an important driver of coral‐to‐macroalgae phase shifts in the lagoons of Moorea even though the reefs harbor an abundant and diverse herbivore assemblage. These results emphasize the important role that bottom‐up factors can play in driving coral‐to‐macroalgae phase shifts and underscore the critical importance of watershed management for reducing inputs of nutrients and other land‐based pollutants to coral reef ecosystems.more » « less
-
Abstract Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.more » « less
