skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Uncertainty Analysis of Business Interruption Losses in the Philippines Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
In this study, we utilize an input–output (I–O) model to perform an ex-post analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic workforce disruptions in the Philippines. Unlike most disasters that debilitate physical infrastructure systems, the impact of disease pandemics like COVID-19 is mostly concentrated on the workforce. Workforce availability was adversely affected by lockdowns as well as by actual illness. The approach in this paper is to use Philippine I–O data for multiple years and generate Dirichlet probability distributions for the Leontief requirements matrix (i.e., the normalized sectoral transactions matrix) to address uncertainties in the parameters. Then, we estimated the workforce dependency ratio based on a literature survey and then computed the resilience index in each economic sector. For example, sectors that depend heavily on the physical presence of their workforce (e.g., construction, agriculture, manufacturing) incur more opportunity losses compared to sectors where workforce can telework (e.g., online retail, education, business process outsourcing). Our study estimated the 50th percentile economic losses in the range of PhP 3.3 trillion (with telework) to PhP 4.8 trillion (without telework), which is consistent with independently published reports. The study provides insights into the direct and indirect economic impacts of workforce disruptions in emerging economies and will contribute to the general domain of disaster risk management.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1832635
PAR ID:
10389388
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Economies
Volume:
10
Issue:
8
ISSN:
2227-7099
Page Range / eLocation ID:
202
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; (, Risk Analysis)
    Abstract Critical infrastructures are ubiquitous and their interdependencies have become more complex leading to their uncertain behaviors in the aftermath of disasters. The article develops an integrated economic input–output model that incorporates household‐level survey data from Hurricane Sandy, which made its landfall in 2012. In this survey, 427 respondents who were living in the state of New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy were used in the study. The integration of their responses allowed us to show the probability and duration of various types of critical infrastructure failures due to a catastrophic hurricane event and estimate the economic losses across different sectors. The percentage of disruption and recovery period for various infrastructure systems were extracted from the survey, which were then utilized in the economic input–output model comprising of 71 economic sectors. Sectors were then ranked according to: (i) inoperability, the percentage in which a sector is disrupted relative to its ideal level, and (ii) economic loss, the monetary worth of business interruption caused by the disaster. With the combined infrastructure disruptions in the state of New Jersey, the model estimated an economic loss of $36 billion, which is consistent with published estimates. Results from this article can provide insights for future disaster preparedness and resilience planning. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, American Behavioral Scientist)
    COVID-19 resulted in health and logistical challenges for many sectors of the American economy, including the trucking industry. This study examined how the pandemic impacted the trucking industry, focused on the pandemic’s impacts on company operations, health, and stress of trucking industry employees. Data were collected from three sources: surveys, focus groups, and social media posts. Individuals at multiple organizational levels of trucking companies (i.e., supervisors, upper-level management, and drivers) completed an online survey and participated in online focus groups. Data from focus groups were coded using a thematic analysis approach. Publicly available social media posts from Twitter were analyzed using a sentiment analysis framework to assess changes in public sentiment about the trucking industry pre- and during-COVID-19. Two themes emerged from the focus groups: (1) trucking company business strategies and adaptations and (2) truck driver experiences and workplace safety. Participants reported supply chain disruptions and new consumer buying trends as having larger industry-wide impacts. Company adaptability emerged due to freight variability, leading organizations to pivot business models and create solutions to reduce operational costs. Companies responded to COVID-19 by accommodating employees’ concerns and implementing safety measures. Truck drivers noted an increase in positive public perception of truck drivers, but job quality factors worsened due to closed amenities and decreased social interaction. Social media sentiment analysis also illustrated an increase in positive public sentiment towards the trucking industry during COVID-19. The pandemic resulted in multi-level economic, health, and social impacts on the trucking industry, which included economic impacts on companies and economic, social and health impacts on employees within the industry levels. Further research can expand on this study to provide an understanding of the long-term impacts of the pandemic on the trucking industry companies within the industry and segments of the trucking industry workforce. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, medRxiv)
    This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-o s between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as Agriculture and Construction, but the ones with high valued jobs such as Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; (, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice)
    With work arrangements experiencing dramatic changes over the past three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the possibility that altered work arrangements may persist well into the future, the implications of teleworking on activity-travel behavior are potentially profound. This paper aims to substantially add to the body of knowledge about the present and future of telework in the wake of the pandemic through a rigorous analysis of telework arrangements between two distinct time periods. The paper focuses on three key aspects of telework, including whether to telework or not, frequency of telework, and location of telework. Behavioral data for this study is derived from a workplace location choice survey conducted across Texas in February-March 2022, which included a recall component to obtain workplace location choice information in the pre-pandemic period. The evolution of telework arrangements between the pre-and after-pandemic periods is explored through a joint model system estimated using a joint multivariate methodology. Results show that, After COVID, the population of workers is generally inclined toward a hybrid work arrangement, with an overall tendency to engage in a higher frequency of teleworking than Before COVID. Finally, teleworkers have a higher propensity to work only from home as opposed to working only from a third workplace or from a combination of home and a third workplace. Overall, our results indicate that telework arrangements may remain at an elevated level into the future, with home serving as the dominant telework location. These findings suggest that transportation demand forecasting models need to be updated to reflect higher levels of teleworking, as well as the heterogeneity across individuals in teleworking adoption, frequency, and location. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Scientific Reports)
    Abstract This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of the lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as the Agriculture sector and the Construction sector, but the ones with high valued jobs such as the Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email