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1. A moment in the sun: solar nowcasting from multispectral satellite data using self-supervised learning

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3538637.3538854  

   Bansal, Akansha Singh ; Bansal, Trapit ; Irwin, David ( June 2022 , Proceedings of the Thirteenth ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems (e-Energy))

   Solar energy is now the cheapest form of electricity in history. Unfortunately, significantly increasing the electric grid's fraction of solar energy remains challenging due to its variability, which makes balancing electricity's supply and demand more difficult. While thermal generators' ramp rate---the maximum rate at which they can change their energy generation---is finite, solar energy's ramp rate is essentially infinite. Thus, accurate near-term solar forecasting, or nowcasting, is important to provide advance warnings to adjust thermal generator output in response to variations in solar generation to ensure a balanced supply and demand. To address the problem, this paper develops a general model for solar nowcasting from abundant and readily available multispectral satellite data using self-supervised learning. Specifically, we develop deep auto-regressive models using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory networks (LSTM) that are globally trained across multiple locations to predict raw future observations of the spatio-temporal spectral data collected by the recently launched GOES-R series of satellites. Our model estimates a location's near-term future solar irradiance based on satellite observations, which we feed to a regression model trained on smaller site-specific solar data to provide near-term solar photovoltaic (PV) forecasts that account for site-specific characteristics. We evaluate our approach for different coverage areas and forecast horizons across 25 solar sites and show that it yields errors close to that of a model using ground-truth observations. 

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2. Probabilistic Neural Network to Quantify Uncertainty of Wind Power Estimation

   https://doi.org/10.1109/DCAS53974.2022.9845651  

   Karami, Farzad ; Kehtarnavaz, Nasser ; Rotea, Mario ( June 2022 , 2022 IEEE 15th Dallas Circuit And System Conference (DCAS))

   Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate sustainable energy. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the performance of a wind farm. Neural networks have been used for power curve estimation. However, they do not produce a confidence measure for their output, unless computationally prohibitive Bayesian methods are used. In this paper, a probabilistic neural network with Monte Carlo dropout is considered to quantify the model or epistemic uncertainty of the power curve estimation. This approach offers a minimal increase in computational complexity and thus evaluation time. Furthermore, by adding a probabilistic loss function, the noise or aleatoric uncertainty in the data is estimated. The developed network captures both model and noise uncertainty which are found to be useful tools in assessing performance. Also, the developed network is compared with the existing ones across a public domain dataset showing superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. The results obtained indicate that the developed network provides the quantification of uncertainty while maintaining accurate power estimation. 

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3. Improving deep learning-based protein distance prediction in CASP14

   https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btab355  

   Guo, Zhiye ; Wu, Tianqi ; Liu, Jian ; Hou, Jie ; Cheng, Jianlin ( May 2021 , Bioinformatics)

   Martelli, Pier Luigi (Ed.)

   Abstract Motivation Accurate prediction of residue-residue distances is important for protein structure prediction. We developed several protein distance predictors based on a deep learning distance prediction method and blindly tested them in the 14th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14). The prediction method uses deep residual neural networks with the channel-wise attention mechanism to classify the distance between every two residues into multiple distance intervals. The input features for the deep learning method include co-evolutionary features as well as other sequence-based features derived from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). Three alignment methods are used with multiple protein sequence/profile databases to generate MSAs for input feature generation. Based on different configurations and training strategies of the deep learning method, five MULTICOM distance predictors were created to participate in the CASP14 experiment. Results Benchmarked on 37 hard CASP14 domains, the best performing MULTICOM predictor is ranked 5th out of 30 automated CASP14 distance prediction servers in terms of precision of top L/5 long-range contact predictions (i.e. classifying distances between two residues into two categories: in contact (< 8 Angstrom) and not in contact otherwise) and performs better than the best CASP13 distance prediction method. The best performing MULTICOM predictor is also ranked 6th among automated server predictors in classifying inter-residue distances into 10 distance intervals defined by CASP14 according to the precision of distance classification. The results show that the quality and depth of MSAs depend on alignment methods and sequence databases and have a significant impact on the accuracy of distance prediction. Using larger training datasets and multiple complementary features improves prediction accuracy. However, the number of effective sequences in MSAs is only a weak indicator of the quality of MSAs and the accuracy of predicted distance maps. In contrast, there is a strong correlation between the accuracy of contact/distance predictions and the average probability of the predicted contacts, which can therefore be more effectively used to estimate the confidence of distance predictions and select predicted distance maps. Availability The software package, source code, and data of DeepDist2 are freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/deepdist and https://zenodo.org/record/4712084#.YIIM13VKhQM. 

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4. Forecasting Groundwater Table in a Flood Prone Coastal City with Long Short-term Memory and Recurrent Neural Networks

   https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051098  

   Bowes, Benjamin D. ; Sadler, Jeffrey M. ; Morsy, Mohamed M. ; Behl, Madhur ; Goodall, Jonathan L. ( May 2019 , Water)

   Many coastal cities are facing frequent flooding from storm events that are made worse by sea level rise and climate change. The groundwater table level in these low relief coastal cities is an important, but often overlooked, factor in the recurrent flooding these locations face. Infiltration of stormwater and water intrusion due to tidal forcing can cause already shallow groundwater tables to quickly rise toward the land surface. This decreases available storage which increases runoff, stormwater system loads, and flooding. Groundwater table forecasts, which could help inform the modeling and management of coastal flooding, are generally unavailable. This study explores two machine learning models, Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) networks and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), to model and forecast groundwater table response to storm events in the flood prone coastal city of Norfolk, Virginia. To determine the effect of training data type on model accuracy, two types of datasets (i) the continuous time series and (ii) a dataset of only storm events, created from observed groundwater table, rainfall, and sea level data from 2010–2018 are used to train and test the models. Additionally, a real-time groundwater table forecasting scenario was carried out to compare the models’ abilities to predict groundwater table levels given forecast rainfall and sea level as input data. When modeling the groundwater table with observed data, LSTM networks were found to have more predictive skill than RNNs (root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.09 m versus 0.14 m, respectively). The real-time forecast scenario showed that models trained only on storm event data outperformed models trained on the continuous time series data (RMSE of 0.07 m versus 0.66 m, respectively) and that LSTM outperformed RNN models. Because models trained with the continuous time series data had much higher RMSE values, they were not suitable for predicting the groundwater table in the real-time scenario when using forecast input data. These results demonstrate the first use of LSTM networks to create hourly forecasts of groundwater table in a coastal city and show they are well suited for creating operational forecasts in real-time. As groundwater table levels increase due to sea level rise, forecasts of groundwater table will become an increasingly valuable part of coastal flood modeling and management. 

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5. Hybrid macro/micro level backpropagation for training deep spiking neural networks

   Jin, Yingyezhe ; Zhang, Wenrui ; Li, Peng ( December 2018 , Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are positioned to enable spatio-temporal information processing and ultra-low power event-driven neuromorphic hardware. However, SNNs are yet to reach the same performances of conventional deep artificial neural networks (ANNs), a long-standing challenge due to complex dynamics and non-differentiable spike events encountered in training. The existing SNN error backpropagation (BP) methods are limited in terms of scalability, lack of proper handling of spiking discontinuities, and/or mismatch between the rate coded loss function and computed gradient. We present a hybrid macro/micro level backpropagation (HM2-BP) algorithm for training multi-layer SNNs. The temporal effects are precisely captured by the proposed spike-train level post-synaptic potential (S-PSP) at the microscopic level. The rate-coded errors are defined at the macroscopic level, computed and back-propagated across both macroscopic and microscopic levels. Different from existing BP methods, HM2-BP directly computes the gradient of the rate-coded loss function w.r.t tunable parameters. We evaluate the proposed HM2-BP algorithm by training deep fully connected and convolutional SNNs based on the static MNIST [14] and dynamic neuromorphic N-MNIST [26]. HM2-BP achieves an accuracy level of 99:49% and 98:88% for MNIST and N-MNIST, respectively, outperforming the best reported performances obtained from the existing SNN BP algorithms. Furthermore, the HM2-BP produces the highest accuracies based on SNNs for the EMNIST [3] dataset, and leads to high recognition accuracy for the 16-speaker spoken English letters of TI46 Corpus [16], a challenging spatio-temporal speech recognition benchmark for which no prior success based on SNNs was reported. It also achieves competitive performances surpassing those of conventional deep learning models when dealing with asynchronous spiking streams. 

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