skip to main content


Title: Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event
Abstract

Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
1855937 2020635
PAR ID:
10398758
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
IOP Publishing
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Volume:
18
Issue:
3
ISSN:
1748-9326
Page Range / eLocation ID:
Article No. 035005
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Agricultural management practices improve crop yields to satisfy food demand of the growing population. However, these activities can have negative consequences, including the release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to global climate change. To mitigate this global environmental problem, the management practices that contribute the most to system GHG emissions should be identified and targeted to mitigate emissions. Accordingly, we estimated the cradle-to-product GHG emissions of irrigated corn production under various farmer-selected scenarios at an experimental testing field in the semi-arid U.S. Great Plains. We applied a carbon footprint approach to quantify life cycle GHG emissions associated with pre-field (e.g., energy production, fertilizer production) and in-field (e.g., groundwater pumping, fertilizer application) activities within fourteen scenarios in the 2020 Oklahoma Testing Ag Performance Solutions (TAPS) sprinkler corn competition. We determined that 63% of the total GHG emission from corn production was associated with in- field activities and that agricultural soil emissions were the overall driving factor. Soil biochemical processes within agricultural soils were expected to contribute an average of 89 ± 18 g CO2-eq kg− 1 corn of the total 271 ± 46 g CO2-eq kg− 1 corn estimated from these systems. On-site natural gas combustion for agricultural groundwater pumping, pre-field fertilizer production, and pre-field energy production for groundwater pumping were the next most influential parameters on total GHG emissions. Diesel fuel, seed, and herbicide production had insignificant contributions to total GHG emissions from corn production. The model was most sensitive to the modeled GHG emissions from agricultural soil, which had significant uncertainty in the emission factor. Therefore, future efforts should target field measurements to better predict the contribution of direct soil emissions to total GHG emissions, particularly under different managements. In addition, identifying the optimal application rate of irrigation water and fertilizer will help to decrease GHG emissions from groundwater irrigated crops. 
    more » « less
  2. The market for on-demand food delivery (ODFD) has increased considerably, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is crucial for transportation and environmental agencies to understand how ODFD has reshaped the travel patterns of people, affecting vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) as well as pollutant emissions in the transportation system. However, the lack of public data from food delivery companies makes it challenging to quantify the impact of on-demand delivery on the real-world transportation network. In this research, we propose a comprehensive framework to quantify the VMT and emissions incurred by ODFD with three main components: (i) a daily activity generation tool, Comprehensive Econometric Micro-simulator for Daily Activity-travel Patterns, to create a simulation scenario of ODFD behaviors based on a real-world roadway network and population demographics in the City of Riverside, California; (ii) an efficient order dispatching and routing algorithm, adaptive large neighborhood search, to obtain a high quality order dispatching and routing plan; (iii) an emission evaluation model, emission factor (EMFAC), to evaluate pollutant emissions from all dining-related trips. Both short-term and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are evaluated. Experimental results show that ODFD has great potential to reduce the dining-related VMT and emissions. The total dining-related VMT in the during-pandemic case decreased by 38% and in the after-pandemic case reduced by 6% to 9%, and the corresponding environmental impacts were reduced accordingly. Meanwhile, emissions reduced significantly with more electric vehicles involved in food delivery. With 100% electric delivery fleet, the ODFD service can save 14% to 22% of emissions after the COVID-19 pandemic. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Extreme weather poses a major challenge to global food security by causing sharp drops in crop yield and supply. International crop trade can potentially alleviate such challenge by reallocating crop commodities. However, the influence of extreme weather stress and synchronous crop yield anomalies on trade linkages among countries remains unexplored. Here we use the international wheat trade network, develop two network-based covariates (i.e., difference in extreme weather stress and short-term synchrony of yield fluctuations between countries), and test specialized statistical and machine-learning methods. We find that countries with larger differences in extreme weather stress and synchronous yield variations tend to be trade partners and with higher trade volumes, even after controlling for factors conventionally implemented in international trade models (e.g., production level and trade agreement). These findings highlight the need to improve the current international trade network by considering the patterns of extreme weather stress and yield synchrony among countries.

     
    more » « less
  4. Communities are considering local food production in response to the pressing need to reduce food system greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, local food systems can vary considerably in design and operation, including controlled environment agriculture (CEA), which refers to agricultural production that takes place within an enclosed space where environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity, and light, are precisely controlled. Such systems require a considerable amount of energy and thus emissions; therefore, this study seeks to quantify these environmental impacts to determine how local CEA systems compare to alternative systems. For this study’s methods, we apply life cycle assessment methodology to quantify the cradle-to-storeshelf GHG emissions and water consumption of four lettuce production systems: local indoor plant factory, local greenhouse, local seasonal soil, and conventional centralized production in California with transportation. Using geographically specific inputs, the study estimates the environmental impact of the different production systems including geospatially resolved growth modeling, emissions intensity, and transportation distances. The results include the major finding that baseline CEA systems always have higher GHG emissions (2.6–7.7 kg CO2e kg−1) than centralized production (0.3–1.0 kg CO2e kg−1), though water consumption is significantly less owing to hydroponic efficiency. In contrast, local seasonal soil production generally has a lower GHG impact than centralized production, though water consumption varies by crop yield and local precipitation during growing seasons. Scenario analyses indicate CEA facilities would need to electrify all systems and utilize low-carbon electricity sources to have equivalent or lower GHG impacts than California centralized production plus transportation. We conclude that these results can inform consumers and policy makers that local seasonal production and conventional supply chains are more sustainable than local CEA production in near-term food-energy-water sustainability nexus decision making. 
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    The COVID-19 crisis has revealed weaknesses and placed great stress on the agri-food system in the U.S. Many believe that it could be a catalyst event that leads to structural changes to improve the food system’s resilience. We use a sample of 220 articles published in prominent national newspapers and agricultural trade journals from March to May 2020 to explore the extent to which farmer responses to COVID-19 covered in the media represent examples of resistant, adaptive, or transformative strategies. The pandemic disrupted the U.S. food system and impacted farmers by reducing access to markets, lowering commodity prices, restricting access to farmworker labor, and shifting consumer demand. Media coverage of farmer responses to these stressors were coded into three alternative pathways: (i) reactive or buffering responses, (ii) adaptive responses; and (iii) transformative responses. Most news media coverage focused on the pandemic’s disruptive impacts on the U.S. food system, related negative impacts on farmers, and short-term responses by institutional actors, including policy-makers and food supply chain industry actors. Farmer responses to pandemic stressors were mentioned less frequently than farmer impacts and responses by institutional actors. The most common examples of farmer responses highlighted in the media reflected farmer reactive and buffering behaviors, which were mentioned significantly more frequently than adaptive or transformative responses. National newspapers were more likely to cover farmer responses and present examples of adaptive and transformative strategies compared to agricultural trade journals. Our findings suggest that news media coverage in the early months of the pandemic largely characterized the event as a rapid onset ‘natural’ disaster that created severe negative impacts. Media devoted more attention to short-term policy responses designed to mitigate these impacts than to farmer responses (in general) or to discussion of the deeper structural causes of and potential solutions to the vulnerabilities revealed by the pandemic. In this way, both national newspaper and agricultural trade journal coverage seems to promote frames that reduce the likelihood of the pandemic becoming the seed of a more resilient system. 
    more » « less