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1. Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: Connections through Convection and Moisture

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0005.1  

   Lawton, Quinton A.; Majumdar, Sharanya J. (July 2023, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract Recent research has demonstrated a relationship between convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) and tropical cyclogenesis, likely due to the influence of CCKWs on the large-scale environment. However, it remains unclear which environmental factors are most important and how they connect to TC genesis processes. Using a 39-yr database of African easterly waves (AEWs) to create composites of reanalysis and satellite data, it is shown that genesis may be facilitated by CCKW-driven modifications to convection and moisture. First, stand-alone composites of genesis demonstrate the significant role of environmental preconditioning and convective aggregation. A moist static energy variance budget indicates that convective aggregation during genesis is dominated by feedbacks between convection and longwave radiation. These processes begin over two days prior to genesis, supporting previous observational work. Shifting attention to CCKWs, up to 76% of developing AEWs encounter at least one CCKW in their lifetime. An increase in genesis events following convectively active CCKW phases is found, corroborating earlier studies. A decrease in genesis events following convectively suppressed phases is also identified. Using CCKW-centered composites, we show that the convectively active CCKW phases enhance convection and moisture content in the vicinity of AEWs prior to genesis. Furthermore, enhanced convective activity is the main discriminator between AEW–CCKW interactions that result in genesis versus those that do not. This analysis suggests that CCKWs may influence genesis through environmental preconditioning and radiative–convective feedbacks, among other factors. A secondary finding is that AEW attributes as far east as central Africa may be predictive of downstream genesis. Significance StatementThe purpose of this work is to investigate how one type of atmospheric wave, known as convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs), impacts the formation (“genesis”) of tropical cyclones. Forecasting of genesis remains a significant challenge, so identifying how CCKWs influence this process could help improve forecasts and give communities greater lead times. Our results show that CCKWs could temporarily make genesis more likely by increasing atmospheric moisture content and convective activity. While not all CCKWs lead to genesis, those that do are associated with a particularly strong increase in convection. This provides a potential tool for forecasters monitoring CCKWs and TC genesis in real time and motivates follow-up work on this topic in numerical models. 

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2. Global coupled dynamics of tropical easterly waves and tropical cyclone genesis

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01014-y  

   Du, Xueqing; Chu, Jung-Eun; Jin, Fei-Fei; Cheung, Hung Ming (December 2025, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are westward-moving waves often within trade winds but occur ubiquitously in the tropics and play a significant role in the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs). They are well-known as primary precursors of TCs in the Atlantic, yet their global relationship with TCs has been less explored. This study, for the first time, presents the global distribution of TEW activity using a combined thermodynamic and dynamic framework based on 6-hourly Outgoing Longwave Radiation and curvature vorticity. We then demonstrate that TEWs play a dominant role in approximately 22–71% of global TC genesis, with their highest impacts in the North Atlantic (71%) and Western Pacific (54%). We further identify that TEWs, in their general coupling with TC genesis dynamics, act to intensify TC convection and vorticity in all TC main development regions, albeit the vorticity enhancement is relatively weaker in the North Atlantic. To understand the cross-basin differences in this general TEW-TC relationship, we further investigated background conditions for TC genesis in each basin and found an additional dry environment constraint in the Atlantic TC genesis, yet still delineating the critical role of TEWs in TC development. 

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3. Changes to tropical eastern North Pacific intraseasonal variability under global warming, implications for tropical cyclogenesis

   https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.53021  

   Bui, Hien X.; Maloney, Eric D. (April 2022, Atmósfera)

   Changes to the tropical eastern North Pacific Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) at the end of the 21st century and implications for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis are examined in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data set. Multimodel mean composite low-level wind and precipitation anomalies associated with the leading intraseasonal mode indicate that precipitation amplitude increases while wind amplitude weakens under global warming, consistent with previous studies for the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The eastern North Pacific intraseasonal precipitation/wind pattern also tends to shift southwestward in a warmer climate, associated with weaker positive precipitation anomalies near the coast of Mexico and Central America during the enhanced convection/westerly wind phase. Implications for the modulation of TC genesis by the leading intraseasonal mode are then explored using an empirical genesis potential index (GPI). In the historical simulation, GPI shows positive anomalies in the eastern North Pacific in the convectively enhanced phase of the ISO. The ISO’s modulation of GPI weakens near the coast of Mexico and Central America with warming, associated with a southward shift of GPI anomalies. Further examination of the contribution from individual environmental variables that enter the GPI shows that relative humidity and vorticity changes during ISO events weaken positive GPI anomalies near the Mexican coast with warming and make genesis more favorable to the southwest. The impact of vertical shear anomaly changes is also to favor genesis away from the coast. These results suggest a weaker modulation of TCs near the Mexican Coast by the ISO in a warmer climate. 

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4. The Relationship between Madden–Julian Oscillation Moist Convective Circulations and Tropical Cyclone Genesis

   https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070134  

   Haertel, Patrick (July 2023, Climate)

   The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale weather system that creates a 30–60 day oscillation in zonal winds and precipitation in the tropics. Its envelope of enhanced rainfall forms over the Indian Ocean and moves slowly eastward before dissipating near the Date Line. The MJO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, intensity, and landfall in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. This study examines the mechanisms by which the MJO alters TC genesis. In particular, MJO circulations are partitioned into Kelvin and Rossby waves for each of the developing, mature, and dissipating stages of the convective envelope, and locations of TC genesis are related to these circulations. Throughout the MJO’s convective life cycle, TC genesis is inhibited to the east of the convective envelope, and enhanced just west of the convective envelope. The inhibition of TC genesis to the east of the MJO is largely due to vertical motion associated with the Kelvin wave circulation, as is the enhancement of TC genesis just west of the MJO during the developing stage. During the mature and dissipating stages, the MJO’s Rossby gyres intensify, creating regions of low-level vorticity, favoring TC genesis to its west. Over the 36-year period considered here, the MJO modulation of TC genesis increases due to the intensification of the MJO’s Kelvin wave circulation. 

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5. Almost extreme waves

   https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2022.1047  

   Dyachenko, Sergey A.; Hur, Vera Mikyoung; Silantyev, Denis A. (January 2023, Journal of Fluid Mechanics)

   Numerically computed with high accuracy are periodic travelling waves at the free surface of a two-dimensional, infinitely deep, and constant vorticity flow of an incompressible inviscid fluid, under gravity, without the effects of surface tension. Of particular interest is the angle the fluid surface of an almost extreme wave makes with the horizontal. Numerically found are the following. (i) There is a boundary layer where the angle rises sharply from $$0^\circ$$ at the crest to a local maximum, which converges to $$30.3787\ldots ^\circ$$ , independently of the vorticity, as the amplitude increases towards that of the extreme wave, which displays a corner at the crest with a $$30^\circ$$ angle. (ii) There is an outer region where the angle descends to $$0^\circ$$ at the trough for negative vorticity, while it rises to a maximum, greater than $$30^\circ$$ , and then falls sharply to $$0^\circ$$ at the trough for large positive vorticity. (iii) There is a transition region where the angle oscillates about $$30^\circ$$ , resembling the Gibbs phenomenon. Numerical evidence suggests that the amplitude and frequency of the oscillations become independent of the vorticity as the wave profile approaches the extreme form. 

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