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The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive resource for the selection of data representations for machine learning-oriented models and components in solar flare prediction tasks. Major solar flares occurring in the solar corona and heliosphere can bring potential destructive consequences, posing significant risks to astronauts, space stations, electronics, communication systems, and numerous technological infrastructures. For this reason, the accurate detection of major flares is essential for mitigating these hazards and ensuring the safety of our technology-dependent society. In response, leveraging machine learning techniques for predicting solar flares has emerged as a significant application within the realm of data science, relying on sensor data collected from solar active region photospheric magnetic fields by space- and ground-based observatories. In this research, three distinct solar flare prediction strategies utilizing the photospheric magnetic field parameter-based multivariate time series dataset are evaluated, with a focus on data representation techniques. Specifically, we examine vector-based, time series-based, and graph-based approaches to identify the most effective data representation for capturing key characteristics of the dataset. The vector-based approach condenses multivariate time series into a compressed vector form, the time series representation leverages temporal patterns, and the graph-based method models interdependencies between magnetic field parameters. The results demonstrate that the vector representation approach exhibits exceptional robustness in predicting solar flares, consistently yielding strong and reliable classification outcomes by effectively encapsulating the intricate relationships within photospheric magnetic field data when coupled with appropriate downstream machine learning classifiers.
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Solar Flare Forecasting with Deep Learning-based Time Series Classifiers
Over the past two decades, machine learning and deep learning techniques for forecasting solar flares have generated great impact due to their ability to learn from a high dimensional data space. However, lack of high quality data from flaring phenomena becomes a constraining factor for such tasks. One of the methods to tackle this complex problem is utilizing trained classifiers with multivariate time series of magnetic field parameters. In this work, we compare the exceedingly popular multivariate time series classifiers applying deep learning techniques with commonly used machine learning classifiers (i.e., SVM). We intend to explore the role of data augmentation on time series oriented flare prediction techniques, specifically the deep learning-based ones. We utilize four time series data augmentation techniques and couple them with selected multivariate time series classifiers to understand how each of them affects the outcome. In the end, we show that the deep learning algorithms as well as augmentation techniques improve our classifiers performance. The resulting classifiers’ performance after augmentation outplayed the traditional flare forecasting techniques.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1931555
- PAR ID:
- 10402089
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2022 26th International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR)
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2907 to 2913
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPR56361.2022.9956097
