Labor markets can shape the impacts of global market developments and local sustainability policies on agricultural outcomes, including changes in production and land use. Yet local labor market outcomes, including agricultural employment, migration and wages, are often overlooked in integrated assessment models (IAMs). The relevance of labor markets has become more important in recent decades, with evidence of diminished labor mobility in the United States (US) and other developed countries. We use the SIMPLE-G (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment) modeling framework to investigate the impacts of a global commodity price shock and a local sustainable groundwater use policy in the US. SIMPLE-G is a multi-scale framework designed to allow for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability, using fine-scale geospatial data and parameters. We use this framework to compare the impacts of the two sets of shocks under two contrasting assumptions: perfect mobility of agricultural labor, as generally implicit in global IAMs, and relatively inelastic labor mobility (‘sticky’ agricultural labor supply response). We supplement the numerical simulations with analytical results from a stylized two-input model to provide further insights into the impacts of local and global shocks on agricultural labor, crop production and resource use. Findings illustrate the key role that labor mobility plays in shaping both local and global agricultural and environmental outcomes. In the perfect labor mobility scenario, the impact of a commodity price boom on crop production, employment and land-use is overestimated compared with the restricted labor mobility case. In the case of the groundwater sustainability policy, the perfect labor mobility scenario overestimates the reduction in crop production and employment in directly targeted grids as well as spillover effects that increase employment in other grids. For both shocks, impacts on agricultural wages are completely overlooked if we ignore rigidities in agricultural labor markets.
The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10414550
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 065007
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract This special issue is the outcome of a workshop held at Purdue University in April 2022. It comprises thematic syntheses of five overarching dimensions of the Global-to-Local-to-Global (GLG) challenge to ensuring the long-term sustainability of land and water resources. These thematic dimensions include: climate change, ecosystems and biodiversity, governance, water resources and cyberinfrastructure. In addition, there are eight applications of GLG analysis to specific land and water sustainability challenges, ranging from environmental stress in the Amazon River Basin to groundwater depletion in the United States. Based on these papers, we conclude that, without fine-scale, local analysis, interventions focusing on land and water sustainability will likely be misguided. But formulating such policies without the broader, national/global context is also problematic – both from the point of view of the global drivers of local sustainability stresses, as well as to capture unanticipated spillovers. In addition, because local and global systems are connected to – and mediated by – meso-scale processes, accounting for key meso-scale phenomena, such as labor market functioning, is critical for characterizing GLG interactions. We also conclude that there is great scope for increasing the complexity of GLG analysis in future work. However, this carries significant risks. Increased complexity can outstrip data and modeling capabilities, slow down research, make results more difficult to understand and interpret, and complicate effective communication with decision-makers and other users of the analyses. We believe that research guidance regarding appropriate complexity is a high priority in the emerging field of Global-Local-Global analysis of sustainability.
-
Local food systems, in which consumers source food from nearby farmers, offer a sustainable alternative to the modern industrial food supply system. However, scaling up local food production to meet consumer demand will require farmers to allocate more land to this purpose. This paper describes an agent-based model that represents commodity-producing Iowa farmers and their decisions about converting some of their acreage to specialty crop production for local consumption. Farmer agents’ land-use decisions are informed by messages passed to them via their social connections with other farmers in their communities and messages from agricultural extension agents. Preliminary experimentation revealed that leveraging extension agents to increase the frequency and strength of messages to farmers in support of local food production has a modest positive impact on adoption. By itself, however, this intervention is unlikely to yield significant improvements to food system sustainability.more » « less
-
Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessmentmore » « less
Abstract Assessing impacts on coupled food-water systems that may emerge from water policies, changes in economic drivers and crop productivity requires an understanding of dominant uncertainties. This paper assesses how a candidate groundwater pumping restriction and crop prices, crop yields, surface water price, electricity price, and parametric uncertainties shape economic and groundwater performance metrics from a coupled hydro-economic model (HEM) through a diagnostic global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The HEM used in this study integrates a groundwater depth response, modeled by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), into a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) agricultural production model. Results show that in addition to a groundwater pumping restriction, performance metrics are highly sensitive to prices and yields of perennial tree crops. These sensitivities become salient during dry years when there is a higher reliance on groundwater. Furthermore, results indicate that performing a GSA for two different water baseline conditions used to calibrate the production model, dry and wet, result in different sensitivity indices magnitudes and factor prioritization. Diagnostic GSA results are used to understand key factors that affect the performance of a groundwater pumping restriction policy. This research is applied to the Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District located in Kern County, California, region reliant on groundwater and vulnerable to surface water shortages.
-
more » « less
Abstract Millions of people displaced by conflicts have found refuge in water-scarce countries, where their perceived effect on water availability has shaped local water security discourses. Using an annual global data set, we explain the effects of refugee migrations on the host countries’ water stress through the food demand displaced by refugees and the water necessary to produce that food. The water footprint of refugee displacement increased by nearly 75% globally between 2005 and 2016. Although minimal in most countries, implications can be severe in countries already facing severe water stress. For example, refugees may have contributed up to 75 percentage points to water stress in Jordan. While water considerations should not, alone, determine trade and migration policy, we find that small changes to current international food supply flows and refugee resettlement procedures can potentially ease the effect of refugee displacement on water stress in water-vulnerable countries.
