Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. Many individuals, however, fail to perceive this risk, which will be exacerbated by global warming. Given that awareness of one’s physical and social vulnerability is a critical precursor to preparedness for extreme weather events, understanding Americans’ perceptions of heat risk and their geographic variability is essential for promoting adaptive behaviors during heat waves. Using a large original survey dataset of 9,217 respondents, we create and validate a model of Americans’ perceived risk to their health from extreme heat in all 50 US states, 3,142 counties, and 72,429 populated census tracts. States in warm climates (e.g., Texas, Nevada, and Hawaii) have some of the highest heat-risk perceptions, yet states in cooler climates often face greater health risks from heat. Likewise, places with older populations who have increased vulnerability to health effects of heat tend to have lower risk perceptions, putting them at even greater risk since lack of awareness is a barrier to adaptive responses. Poorer neighborhoods and those with larger minority populations generally have higher risk perceptions than wealthier neighborhoods with more white residents, consistent with vulnerability differences across these populations. Comprehensive models of extreme weather risks, exposure, and effects should take individual perceptions, which motivate behavior, into account. Understanding risk perceptions at fine spatial scales can also support targeting of communication and education initiatives to where heat adaptation efforts are most needed.
Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Heatwave Risk Perception in the United States
Abstract Extreme heat events are one of the deadliest weather-related hazards in the United States and are increasing in frequency and severity as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Further, some subpopulations may be more vulnerable than others because of social, economic, and political factors that create disparities in hazard impacts and responses. Vulnerability is also affected by risk perceptions, which can influence protective behaviors. In this study, we use national survey data to investigate the association of key sociodemographic factors with public risk perceptions of heatwaves. We find that risk perceptions are most associated with income, race/ethnicity, gender, and disability status. Age, an important predictor of heat mortality, had smaller associations with heat risk perceptions. Low-income, nonwhite, and disabled individuals tend to perceive themselves to be at greater risks from heatwaves than other subpopulations, corresponding to their elevated risk. Men have lower risk perceptions than women despite their higher mortality and morbidity from heat. This study helps to identify subpopulations in the United States who see themselves as at risk from extreme heat and can inform heat risk communication and other risk reduction practices.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10425637
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Weather, Climate, and Society
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1948-8327
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1119 to 1131
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0104.1
