skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Variability and Predictability of Basinwide and Sub-Basin Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Northwest Pacific
Abstract The variability and predictability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) during 1973–2010 at both basinwide and sub-basin scales in the northwest Pacific are investigated using a 100-member ensemble of 60-km-resolution atmospheric simulations that are forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The sub-basin regions include the South China Sea (SCS) and the four quadrants of the open ocean. The ensemble-mean results well reproduce the observed interannual-to-decadal variability of TCGF in the southeast (SE), northeast (NE), and northwest (NW) quadrants, but show limited skill in the SCS and the southwest (SW) quadrant. The skill in the SE and NE quadrants is responsible for the model’s ability to replicate the observed variability in basinwide TCGF. Above-normal TCGF is tied to enhanced relative SST (i.e., local SST minus tropical-mean SST) either locally or to the southeast of the corresponding regions in both the observations and ensemble mean for the SE, NE, and NW quadrants, but only in the ensemble mean for the SCS and the SW quadrant. These results demonstrate the strong SST control of TCGF in the SE, NE, and NW quadrants; both empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that ensembles of ∼10, 20, 35, and 15 members can capture the SST-forced TCGF variability in these three sub-basin regions and the entire basin, respectively. In the SW quadrant and the SCS, TCGF contains excessive noise, particularly in the observations, and thus shows low predictability. The variability and predictability of the large-scale atmospheric environment and synoptic-scale disturbances and their contributions to those of TCGF are also discussed.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2047721
PAR ID:
10427638
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
35
Issue:
20
ISSN:
0894-8755
Page Range / eLocation ID:
3265 to 3284
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; (, International Journal of Climatology)
    Abstract This study analyzes the effect of the location of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge on the daily variability of precipitation organization in the southeastern United States (SE US). The western side of the NASH, also known as the NASH western ridge, plays an important role in the variability of summertime precipitation in this region. In this study, the mean summertime position of the NASH western ridge was determined and used to classify each summer day during 2009–2012 into one of four quadrants. Composites of synoptic‐scale circulation and precipitation from mesoscale and isolated precipitation features (MPF and IPF) were calculated for each NASH western ridge quadrant. MPF contributed most (about 65%) of the total summertime precipitation and accounted for most of the differences between the four NASH quadrants. Domain‐averaged precipitation was highest (lowest) during NASH‐SW (NASH‐NW) when IPF (MPF) precipitation was strongest (weakest). The regionality of MPF precipitation maxima was generally associated with the location of low‐level jets and upper‐level troughs. For instance, positive MPF anomalies occurred across the SE US during NASH‐SW when the Great Plains low‐level jet turned eastward bringing moisture to fuel convection in the SE US. In contrast, IPF rain was distributed more uniformly across the SE US. Finally, this study revealed a dipole of precipitation that is controlled by the position of the NASH western ridge and its associated low‐level jets. In one extreme of the dipole NASH‐SE, periods are associated with enhanced MPF precipitation along the coast and offshore for days at a time, and suppressed MPF precipitation inland. The opposite pattern occurs during NASH‐NW when MPF precipitation is enhanced inland and suppressed along the coast and offshore. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; (, Journal of Climate)
    Abstract Regional ocean–atmospheric interactions in the summer tropical Indo–northwest Pacific region are investigated using a tropical Pacific Ocean–global atmosphere pacemaker experiment with a coupled ocean–atmospheric model (cPOGA) and a parallel atmosphere model simulation (aPOGA) forced with sea surface temperature (SST) variations from cPOGA. Whereas the ensemble mean features pronounced influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ensemble spread represents internal variability unrelated to ENSO. By comparing the aPOGA and cPOGA, this study examines the effect of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the ENSO-unrelated variability. In boreal summer, ocean–atmosphere coupling induces local positive feedback to enhance the variance and persistence of the sea level pressure and rainfall variability over the northwest Pacific and likewise induces local negative feedback to suppress the variance and persistence of the sea level pressure and rainfall variability over the north Indian Ocean. Anomalous surface heat fluxes induced by internal atmosphere variability cause SST to change, and SST anomalies feed back onto the atmosphere through atmospheric convection. The local feedback is sensitive to the background winds: positive under the mean easterlies and negative under the mean westerlies. In addition, north Indian Ocean SST anomalies reinforce the low-level anomalous circulation over the northwest Pacific through atmospheric Kelvin waves. This interbasin interaction, along with the local feedback, strengthens both the variance and persistence of atmospheric variability over the northwest Pacific. The response of the regional Indo–northwest Pacific mode to ENSO and influences on the Asian summer monsoon are discussed. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, Environmental Research Letters)
    Abstract An open question in the study of climate prediction is whether internal variability will continue to contribute to prediction skill in the coming decades, or whether predictable signals will be overwhelmed by rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing. We design a neural network that is interpretable such that its predictions can be decomposed to examine the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to future regional sea surface temperature (SST) trend predictions in the near-term climate (2020–2050). We show that there is additional prediction skill to be garnered from internal variability in the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, even in a relatively high forcing future scenario. This predictability is especially apparent in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Tropical Pacific Oceans as well as in the Southern Ocean. We further investigate how prediction skill covaries across the ocean and find three regions with distinct coherent prediction skill driven by internal variability. SST trend predictability is found to be associated with consistent patterns of decadal variability for the grid points within each region. 
    more » « less
  4. (, EOS Transactions American Geophysical Union)
    The late Mesozoic Era was a time of widespread crustal extension in eastern Asia resulting in both rift basin and metamorphic core complex formation. Two of the more recently documented examples of this extensional phase are the Ereendavaa and Buteel metamorphic core complexes (EMCC, BMCC). Both are located in northern Mongolia proximal to the Mongol Okhotsk Suture Zone (MOSZ). The MOSZ is a profound, yet enigmatic structure that formed due to closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean, a basin that separated the Siberian and North China cratons and intervening terranes of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt. Based on published work by others, the core complexes record NW-SE extension, cooling and deformation from c. 135 to 120 Ma. We present new data as part of a collaborative research project that aims to constrain the evolution of the MOSZ more broadly and its relationship to intracontinental deformation after suturing. Our methods include analysis of satellite imagery and digital elevation models with synthesis of field, (micro)structural, and geochronologic data with published maps and studies. Based on our findings, the EMCC likely extends several 10's of km to the NE. Satellite imagery and DEMs suggest large-scale corrugations along the N-flank consistent with NW-SE extension. To the SW of the EMCC, Early Cretaceous rift basins are associated with strong NE-SW oriented lineaments. We examined the BMCC along its SW mapped extent, an area for which no data were presented in prior publications; we confirmed the presence of a top-to-the-SE detachment fault. The EMCC and BMCC, like the Yagan-Onch Hayrhan MCC in southern Mongolia, have footwall rocks previously mapped as Precambrian that are, in large part, metamorphosed Paleozoic and Mesozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks. All three MCCs exhibit evidence for structural complexity, such as NE-SW trending lineations orthogonal to the NW-SE extension direction. As in S Mongolia, we hypothesize that the NE-SW lineations in the EMCC and BMCC formed during an earlier phase of shortening. The expression of the Early Cretaceous extension (rift basin vs. MCC) appears to be controlled by the inherited structure. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Climate)
    null (Ed.)
    Abstract Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model simulation of unprecedented ensemble size, we examine potential predictability of monthly anomalies under El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and back-ground internal variability. This study reveals the pronounced month-to-month evolution of both the ENSO forcing signal and internal variability. Internal variance in upper-level geopotential height decreases (∼ 10%) over the North Pacific during El Niño as the westerly jet extends eastward, allowing forced signals to account for a greater fraction of the total variability, and leading to increased potential predictability. We identify February and March of El Niño years as the most predictable months using a signal-to-noise analysis. In contrast, December, a month typically included in teleconnection studies, shows little-to-no potential predictability. We show that the seasonal evolution of SST forcing and variability leads to significant signal-to-noise relationships that can be directly linked to both upper-level and surface variable predictability for a given month. The stark changes in forced response, internal variability, and thus signal-to-noise across an ENSO season indicate that subseasonal fields should be used to diagnose potential predictability over North America associated with ENSO teleconnections. Using surface air temperature and precipitation as examples, this study provides motivation to pursue ‘windows of forecast opportunity’, in which statistical skill can be developed, tested, and leveraged to determine times and regions in which this skill may be elevated. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email