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1. Mid‐Holocene, Coral‐Based Sea Surface Temperatures in the Western Tropical Atlantic

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003571  

   Rodriguez, Luis G. ; Cohen, Anne L. ; Ramirez, Wilson ; Oppo, Delia W. ; Pourmand, Ali ; Edwards, R. Lawrence ; Alpert, Alice E. ; Mollica, Nathaniel ( July 2019 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The Holocene is considered a period of relative climatic stability, but significant proxy data‐model discrepancies exist that preclude consensus regarding the postglacial global temperature trajectory. In particular, a mid‐Holocene Climatic Optimum, ~9,000 to ~5,000 years BP, is evident in Northern Hemisphere marine sediment records, but its absence from model simulations raises key questions about the ability of the models to accurately simulate climate and seasonal biases that may be present in the proxy records. Here we present new mid‐Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) data from the western tropical Atlantic, where twentieth‐century temperature variability and amplitude of warming track the twentieth‐century global ocean. Using a new coral thermometer Sr‐U, we first developed a temporal Sr‐U SST calibration from three modern Atlantic corals and validated the calibration against Sr‐U time series from a fourth modern coral. Two fossil corals from the Enriquillo Valley, Dominican Republic, were screened for diagenesis, U‐series dated to 5,199 ± 26 and 6,427 ± 81 years BP, respectively, and analyzed for Sr/Ca and U/Ca, generating two annually resolved Sr‐U SST records, 27 and 17 years long, respectively. Average SSTs from both corals were significantly cooler than in early instrumental (1870–1920) and late instrumental (1965–2016) periods at this site, by ~0.5 and ~0.75 °C, respectively, a result inconsistent with the extended mid‐Holocene warm period inferred from sediment records. A more complete sampling of Atlantic Holocene corals can resolve this issue with confidence and address questions related to multidecadal and longer‐term variability in Holocene Atlantic climate.

    

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2. The Peculiar Trajectory of Global Warming

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033629  

   Fueglistaler, S. ; Silvers, L. G. ( February 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) over the historical period show systematic global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) variations uncorrelated with global surface temperature (known as “pattern effect”). Here, we show that a single parameter that quantifies the difference in SSTs between regions of tropical deep convection and the tropical or global average (Δ^conv) captures the time‐varying “pattern effect” in the simulations using the PCMDI/AMIPII SST recommended for CMIP6. In particular, a large positive trend in the 1980s–1990s in Δ^convexplains the change of sign to a strongly negative SWCRE feedback since the late 1970s. In these decades, the regions of deep convection warm about +50% more than the tropical average. Such an amplification is rarely observed in forced coupled atmosphere‐ocean GCM simulations, where the amplified warming is typically about +10%. During the post 2000 global warming hiatus Δ^convshows little change, and the more recent period of resumed global warming is too short to robustly detect trends. In the prescribed SST simulations, Δ^convis forced by the SST difference between warmer and colder regions. An index thereof (SST^#) evaluated for six SST reconstructions shows similar trends for the satellite era, but the difference between the pre‐ and the satellite era is substantially larger in the PCMDI/AMIPII SSTs than in the other reconstructions. Quantification of the cloud feedback depends critically on small changes in the shape of the SST probability density distribution. These sensitivities underscore how essential highly accurate, persistent, and stable global climate records are to determine the cloud feedback.

    

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3. Temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across synoptic to century-long time scales

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2022.105155  

   Danielson, Seth L. ; Hennon, Tyler D. ; Monson, Daniel H. ; Suryan, Robert M. ; Campbell, Rob W. ; Baird, Steven J. ; Holderied, Kristine ; Weingartner, Thomas J. ( September 2022 , Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography)

   Surface and subsurface moored buoy, ship-based, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets are used to investigate thermal variability of northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) nearshore, coastal, and offshore waters over synoptic to century-long time scales. NGA sea surface temperature (SST) showed a larger positive trend of 0.22 ± 0.10 °C per decade over 1970–2021 compared to 0.10 ± 0.03 °C per decade over 1900–2021. Over synoptic time scales, SST covariance between two stations is small (<10%) when separation exceeds 100 km, while stations separated by 500 km retain 50% of their co-variability for seasonal and longer fluctuations. Relative to in situ sensor data, remotely sensed SST data has limited accuracy in some NGA settings, capturing 60–70% of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, but often <25% nearshore. North Pacific and NGA leading modes of SST variability leave 25–50% of monthly variance unresolved. Analysis of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave shows that NGA coastal surface temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through 2013, but deep inner shelf waters (200–250 m) exhibited delayed warming. Offshore surface waters cooled from 2014 to 2016, while shelf waters continued to warm from the combined effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes. We find that annually averaged Sitka air temperature is a leading predictor (r2 = 0.37, p < 0.05) for following-year NGA coastal water column temperature. Our results can inform future environmental monitoring designs, assist forward-looking projections of marine conditions, and show the importance of in situ measurements for nearshore studies that require knowledge of thermal conditions over time scales of days and weeks. 

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4. Patterns and Mechanisms of Northeast Pacific Temperature Response to Pliocene Boundary Conditions

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004370  

   Brennan, Peter R. ; Bhattacharya, Tripti ; Feng, Ran ; Tierney, Jessica E. ; Jorgensen, Ellen M. ( June 2022 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Ocean‐atmosphere dynamics in the north Pacific play an important role in the global climate system and influence hydroclimate in western North America. However, changes to this region's mean climate under increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are not well understood. Here we present new alkenone‐based records of sea surface temperature (SST) from the northeast Pacific from the mid‐Piacenzian warm period (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma), an interval considered to be an analog for near‐future climate under middle‐of‐the‐road anthropogenic emissions. We compare these and other alkenone‐based SST records from the north Pacific to fully‐coupled climate model simulations to examine the impact of mid‐Pliocene CO₂and other boundary conditions on regional climate dynamics and to explore factors governing model disagreement about regional temperature patterns. Model performance varies regionally, with Community Earth System Model 1.2 (CESM 1.2) and CESM2 performing best in regions with greater warming like the California Margin, though these models underestimate the warming evidenced in our new proxy record and others from the region. Single forcing simulations reveal a strong influence for prescribed land surface changes and higher CO₂levels on coastal warming patterns along the California Margin in CESM2. Furthermore, differences in shortwave and longwave radiation and circulation between the models, likely related to changes in the atmospheric component of the model, may play a key role in the ability of models to capture regionally‐varying patterns of Pliocene warmth. Regional patterns of temperature change inferred from geochemical records could therefore help to understand the impacts of different model parameterization schemes on regional climate patterns.

    

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5. An Improved Ensemble of Land Surface Air Temperatures Since 1880 Using Revised Pair-Wise Homogenization Algorithms Accounting for Autocorrelation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0338.1  

   Chan, Duo ; Gebbie, Geoffrey ; Huybers, Peter ( April 2024 , Journal of Climate)

   Land surface air temperatures (LSAT) inferred from weather station data differ among major research groups. The estimate by NOAA’s monthly Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCNm) averages 0.02°C cooler between 1880 and 1940 than Berkeley Earth’s and 0.14°C cooler than the Climate Research Unit estimates. Such systematic offsets can arise from differences in how poorly documented changes in measurement characteristics are detected and adjusted. Building upon an existing pairwise homogenization algorithm used in generating the fourth version of NOAA’s GHCNm(V4), PHA₀, we propose two revisions to account for autocorrelation in climate variables. One version, PHA₁, makes minimal modification to PHA₀by extending the threshold used in breakpoint detection to be a function of LSAT autocorrelation. The other version, PHA₂, uses penalized likelihood to detect breakpoints through optimizing a model-selection problem globally. To facilitate efficient optimization for series with more than 1000 time steps, a multiparent genetic algorithm is proposed for PHA₂. Tests on synthetic data generated by adding breakpoints to CMIP6 simulations and realizations from a Gaussian process indicate that PHA₁and PHA₂both similarly outperform PHA₀in recovering accurate climatic trends. Applied to unhomogenized GHCNmV4, both revised algorithms detect breakpoints that correspond with available station metadata. Uncertainties are estimated by perturbing algorithmic parameters, and an ensemble is constructed by pooling 50 PHA₁- and 50 PHA₂-based members. The continental-mean warming in this new ensemble is consistent with that of Berkeley Earth, despite using different homogenization approaches. Relative to unhomogenized data, our homogenization increases the 1880–2022 trend by 0.16 [0.12, 0.19]°C century⁻¹(95% confidence interval), leading to continental-mean warming of 1.65 [1.62, 1.69]°C over 2010–22 relative to 1880–1900.

   Accurately correcting for systematic errors in observational records of land surface air temperature (LSAT) is critical for quantifying historical warming. Existing LSAT estimates are subject to systematic offsets associated with processes including changes in instrumentation and station movement. This study improves a pairwise homogenization algorithm by accounting for the fact that climate signals are correlated over time. The revised algorithms outperform the original in identifying discontinuities and recovering accurate warming trends. Applied to monthly station temperatures, the revised algorithms adjust trends in continental mean LSAT since the 1880s to be 0.16°C century⁻¹greater relative to raw data. Our estimate is most consistent with that from Berkeley Earth and indicates lesser and greater warming than estimates from NOAA and the Met Office, respectively.

    

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