An official website of the United States government
SUMMARY Elastodynamic Green’s functions are an essential ingredient in seismology as they form the connection between direct observations of seismic waves and the earthquake source. They are also fundamental to various seismological techniques including physics-based ground motion prediction and kinematic or dynamic source inversions. In regions with established 3-D models of the Earth’s elastic structure, such as southern California, 3-D Green’s functions can be computed using numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation. However, such simulations are computationally expensive, which poses challenges for real-time ground motion prediction and uncertainty quantification in source inversions. In this study, we address these challenges by using a reduced-order model (ROM) approach that enables the rapid evaluation of approximate Green’s functions. The ROM technique developed approximates three-component time-dependent surface velocity wavefields obtained from numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation. We apply our ROM approach to a 50 km $$\times$$ 40 km area in greater Los Angeles accounting for topography, site effects, 3-D subsurface velocity structure, and viscoelastic attenuation. The ROM constructed for this region enables rapid computation ($$\approx 0.0001$$ CPU hr) of complete, high-resolution (500 m spacing), 0.5 Hz surface velocity wavefields that are accurate for a shortest wavelength of 1.0 km for a single elementary moment tensor source. Using leave-one-out cross validation, we measure the accuracy of our Green’s functions for the CVM-S velocity model in both the time domain and frequency domain. Averaged across all sources, receivers, and time steps, the error in the rapid seismograms is less than 0.01 cm s−1. We demonstrate that the ROM can accurately and rapidly reproduce simulated seismograms for generalized moment tensor sources in our region, as well as kinematic sources by using a finite fault model of the 1987 $$M_\mathrm{ W}$$ 5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquake as an example. We envision that rapid, accurate Green’s functions from reduced-order modelling for complex 3-D seismic wave propagation simulations will be useful for constructing real-time ground motion synthetics and source inversions with high spatial resolution.
more »
« less
Instantaneous Physics‐Based Ground Motion Maps Using Reduced‐Order Modeling
Abstract Physics‐based simulations of earthquake ground motion are useful to complement recorded ground motions. However, the computational expense of performing numerical simulations hinders their applicability to tasks that require real‐time solutions or ensembles of solutions for different earthquake sources. To enable rapid physics‐based solutions, we present a reduced‐order modeling approach based on interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to predict peak ground velocities (PGVs). As a demonstrator, we consider PGVs from regional 3D wave propagation simulations at the location of the 2008MW5.4 Chino Hills earthquake using double‐couple sources with varying depth and focal mechanisms. These simulations resolve frequencies ≤1.0 Hz and include topography, viscoelastic attenuation, and S‐wave speeds ≥500 m/s. We evaluate the accuracy of the interpolated POD reduced‐order model (ROM) as a function of the approximation method. Comparing the radial basis function (RBF), multilayer perceptron neural network, random forest, andk‐nearest neighbor, we find that the RBF interpolation gives the lowest error (≈0.1 cm/s) when tested against an independent data set. We also find that evaluating the ROM is 107–108times faster than the wave propagation simulations. We use the ROM to generate PGV maps for 1 million different focal mechanisms, in which we identify potentially damaging ground motions and quantify correlations between focal mechanism, depth, and accuracy of the predicted PGV. Our results demonstrate that the ROM can rapidly and accurately approximate the PGV from wave propagation simulations with variable source properties, topography, and complex subsurface structure.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10440623
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2169-9313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Understanding and modeling variability of ground motion is essential for building accurate and precise ground motion prediction equations, which can net site‐specific characterization and reduced hazard levels. Here, we explore the spatial variability in peak ground velocity (PGV) at Sage Brush Flats along the San Jacinto Fault in Southern California. We use data from a dense array (0.6 × 0.6 km2, 1,108 geophones, station spacings 10–30 m) deployed in 2014 for ~1 month. These data offer an opportunity to study small‐scale variability in this region. We examine 38 earthquakes (2 ≤ ML ≤ 4.2) within 200 km of the array. Fault strands and a small basin impact the ground motions, producing PGV variations up to 22% of the mean and a 40% reduction inPandSwave near‐surface velocities. We find along‐fault rupture directivity, source, and path effects can increase PGVs by 167%. Surface PGV measurements exceed the colocated borehole station (depth at 148 m) PGV by factors of 3–10, confirming the impact on PGV from near‐surface fault structures, basins, topography, and amplifications from soft sediments. Consistently, we find high PGVs within the basin structure. A pair of colocated GaML2.6 events produce repeatable PGV values with similar spatial patterns. The average corner frequencies of these two events are 11–16 Hz, and viable measurements of stress drop can differ by 6.45 MPa. Within this small array, the PGV values are variable implying spatial extrapolation of PGV to regions of known faults and basins, even across a small area, should be done with caution.more » « less
-
Abstract The nonlinear mechanical responses of rocks and soils to seismic waves play an important role in earthquake physics, influencing ground motion from source to site. Continuous geophysical monitoring, such as ambient noise interferometry, has revealed co‐seismic wave speed reductions extending tens of kilometers from earthquake sources. However, the mechanisms governing these changes remain challenging to model, especially at regional scales. Using a nonlinear damage model constrained by laboratory experiments, we develop and apply an open‐source 3D discontinuous Galerkin method to simulate regional co‐seismic wave speed changes during the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake. We find pronounced spatial variations of co‐seismic wave speed reduction, ranging from <0.01% to >50%, particularly close to the source and within the Kathmandu Basin, while disagreement with observations remains. The most significant reduction occurs within the sedimentary basin and varies with basin depths, whereas wave speed reductions correlate with the fault slip distribution near the source. By comparing ground motions from simulations with elastic, viscoelastic, elastoplastic, and nonlinear damage rheologies, we demonstrate that the nonlinear damage model effectively captures low‐frequency ground motion amplification due to strain‐dependent wave speed reductions in soft sediments. We verify the accuracy of our approach through comparisons with analytical solutions and assess its scalability on high‐performance computing systems. The model shows near‐linear strong and weak scaling up to 2,048 nodes, enabling efficient large‐scale simulations. Our findings provide a physics‐based framework to quantify nonlinear earthquake effects and emphasize the importance of damage‐induced wave speed variations for seismic hazard assessment and ground motion predictions.more » « less
-
SUMMARY We have simulated 0–5 Hz deterministic wave propagation for a suite of 17 models of the 2014 Mw 5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake with the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model Version S4.26-M01 using a finite-fault source. Strong motion data at 259 sites within a 148 km × 140 km area are used to validate our simulations. Our simulations quantify the effects of statistical distributions of small-scale crustal heterogeneities (SSHs), frequency-dependent attenuation Q(f), surface topography and near-surface low-velocity material (via a 1-D approximation) on the resulting ground motion synthetics. The shear wave quality factor QS(f) is parametrized as QS, 0 and QS, 0fγ for frequencies less than and higher than 1 Hz, respectively. We find the most favourable fit to data for models using ratios of QS, 0 to shear wave velocity VS of 0.075–1.0 and γ values less than 0.6, with the best-fitting amplitude drop-off for the higher frequencies obtained for γ values of 0.2–0.4. Models including topography and a realistic near-surface weathering layer tend to increase peak velocities at mountain peaks and ridges, with a corresponding decrease behind the peaks and ridges in the direction of wave propagation. We find a clear negative correlation between the effects on peak ground velocity amplification and duration lengthening, suggesting that topography redistributes seismic energy from the large-amplitude first arrivals to the adjacent coda waves. A weathering layer with realistic near-surface low velocities is found to enhance the amplification at mountain peaks and ridges, and may partly explain the underprediction of the effects of topography on ground motions found in models. Our models including topography tend to improve the fit to data, as compared to models with a flat free surface, while our distributions of SSHs with constraints from borehole data fail to significantly improve the fit. Accuracy of the velocity model, particularly the near-surface low velocities, as well as the source description, controls the resolution with which the anelastic attenuation can be determined. Our results demonstrate that it is feasible to use fully deterministic physics-based simulations to estimate ground motions for seismic hazard analysis up to 5 Hz. Here, the effects of, and trade-offs with, near-surface low-velocity material, topography, SSHs and Q(f) become increasingly important as frequencies increase towards 5 Hz, and should be included in the calculations. Future improvement in community velocity models, wider access to computational resources, more efficient numerical codes and guidance from this study are bound to further constrain the ground motion models, leading to more accurate seismic hazard analysis.more » « less
-
The Gordon Bell-winning AWP-ODC application continues to push the boundaries of earthquake simulation by leveraging the enhanced performance of MVAPICH on both CPU and GPU based architectures. This presentation highlights the recent improvements to the code and its application to broadband deterministic 3D wave propagation simulations of earthquake ground motions, incorporating high-resolution surface topography and detailed underground structures. The results of these simulations provide critical insights into the potential impacts of major earthquakes, contributing to more effective disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the presentation will address the scientific and technical challenges encountered during the process and discuss the implications for future large-scale seismic studies on Exascale computing systems.more » « less
