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Abstract We investigate the timing and relative influence of VLF in the chorus frequency range observed by the DEMETER spacecraft and ULF wave activity from ground stations on daily changes in electron flux (0.23 to over 2.9 MeV) observed by the HEO‐3 spacecraft. At eachL‐shell, we use multiple regression to investigate the effects of each wave type and each daily lag independent of the others. We find that reduction and enhancement of electrons occur at different timescales. Chorus power spectral density and ULF wave power are associated with immediate electron decreases on the same day but with flux enhancement 1–2 days later. ULF is nearly always more influential than chorus on both increases and decreases of flux, although chorus is often a significant factor. There was virtually no difference in correlations of ULF Pc3, Pc4, or Pc5 with electron flux. A synergistic interaction between chorus and ULF waves means that enhancement is most effective when both waves are present, pointing to a two‐step process where local acceleration by chorus waves first energizes electrons which are then brought to even higher energies by inward radial diffusion due to ULF waves. However, decreases in flux due to these waves act additively. Chorus and ULF waves combined are most effective at describing changes in electron flux at >1.5 MeV. At lowerL(2–3), correlations between ULF and VLF (likely hiss) with electron flux were low. The most successful models, overL = 4–6, explained up to 47.1% of the variation in the data.
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Comparison of Multiple and Logistic Regression Analyses of Relativistic Electron Flux Enhancement at Geosynchronous Orbit Following Storms
Abstract Many factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1651263
- PAR ID:
- 10443954
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 124
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 10246-10256
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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