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This study employs a pseudo–global warming approach to investigate precipitation changes from a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 14 May 2018 over the eastern United States. An Appalachian-Mountain-crossing MCS is simulated for historical, mid-twenty-first century (2045–54), and late-twenty-first century (2090–99) climate scenarios. For experiments using ensemble-mean perturbations in atmospheric, soil, and oceanic variables derived from 34 general circulation models, MCS precipitation diminishes by 25%in the midcentury and 65%in the late century. Experiments testing the sensitivity to these variables separately reveal that atmospheric variables primarily drive precipitation changes. Additional sensitivity experiments quantify MCS responses to temperature, moisture, and wind perturbations separately, with the magnitude of perturbations stratified as low, moderate, or high. Experiments highlight the dominant though contrasting roles of the thermodynamic variables. In midcentury, temperature increases lead to reductions in rainfall rates by up to 74.3%, while increased moisture raises rainfall rates by 75.1%. In the late century, the MCS fails to initiate for temperature perturbations of all magnitudes. Rainfall rate and precipitation area substantially increase with larger moisture perturbations, while the frequency of heavy (95th percentile) and extreme (99th percentile) precipitation increases more than 100%, with minimal changes in precipitation rate. Finally, ensemble-mean perturbations are added to all variables, except for temperature or moisture, to which either a low or high perturbation is added. MCSs are robust when low-temperature or high-moisture perturbations are included, though they fail to initiate for low-moisture and high-temperature perturbations, highlighting the challenges in projecting future MCS behavior.
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The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a substantial source of precipitation in the eastern U.S. and may be sensitive to regional climatic change. We use a suite of convection-permitting climate simulations to examine possible changes in MCS precipitation. Specifically, annual and regional totals of MCS and non-MCS precipitation generated during a retrospective simulation are compared to end-of-21st-century simulations based on intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios. Both scenarios produce more MCS precipitation and less non-MCS precipitation, thus significantly increasing the proportion of precipitation associated with MCSs across the U.S.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1637225
- PAR ID:
- 10474032
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature.com
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2397-3722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00481-5
