Coupled global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to reproduce the observed sea‐surface temperature (SST) trend pattern since the 1980s. The model‐observation discrepancies may arise in part from the lack of realistic Antarctic ice‐sheet meltwater input in GCMs. Here we employ two sets of CESM1‐CAM5 simulations forced by anomalous Antarctic meltwater fluxes over 1980–2013 and through the 21st century. Both show a reduced global warming rate and an SST trend pattern that better resembles observations. The meltwater drives surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and the tropical southeast Pacific, in turn increasing low‐cloud cover and driving radiative feedbacks to become more stabilizing (corresponding to a lower effective climate sensitivity). These feedback changes can contribute as substantially as ocean heat uptake efficiency changes in reducing the global warming rate. Accurately projecting historical and future warming thus requires improved representation of Antarctic meltwater and its impacts.
Southern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015 have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's grounded ice and ice shelves. However, climate models have largely been unable to reproduce this behavior. Here we examine the contribution of observed wind variability and Antarctic meltwater to Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice. The free‐running, CMIP6‐class GISS‐E2.1‐G climate model can simulate regional cooling and neutral sea ice trends due to internal variability, but they are unlikely. Constraining the model to observed winds and meltwater fluxes from 1990 through 2021 gives SST variability and trends consistent with observations. Meltwater and winds contribute a similar amount to the SST trend, and winds contribute more to the sea ice trend than meltwater. However, while the constrained model captures much of the observed sea ice variability, it only partially captures the post‐2015 sea ice reduction.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2233016
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10482495
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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