Attention:The NSF Public Access Repository (PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 16 until 12:00 AM ET on Friday 17 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Seasonal Dependence of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Associated with ENSO and Its Interaction with the Annual Cycle
The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is one of the prominent atmospheric circulation modes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and its seasonal to interannual predictability is suggested to originate from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intriguingly, the PNA teleconnection pattern exhibits variance at near-annual frequencies, which is related to a rapid phase reversal of the PNA pattern during ENSO years, whereas the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are evolving much slower in time. This distinct seasonal feature of the PNA pattern can be explained by an amplitude modulation of the interannual ENSO signal by the annual cycle (i.e., the ENSO combination mode). The ENSO-related seasonal phase transition of the PNA pattern is reproduced well in an atmospheric general circulation model when both the background SST annual cycle and ENSO SST anomalies are prescribed. In contrast, this characteristic seasonal evolution of the PNA pattern is absent when the tropical Pacific background SST annual cycle is not considered in the modeling experiments. The background SST annual cycle in the tropical Pacific modulates the ENSO-associated tropical Pacific convection response, leading to a rapid enhancement of convection anomalies in winter. The enhanced convection results in a fast establishment of the large-scale PNA teleconnection during ENSO years. The dynamics of this ENSO–annual cycle interaction fills an important gap in our understanding of the seasonally modulated PNA teleconnection pattern during ENSO years.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2141728 2219257
PAR ID:
10497230
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
American Meteorological Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
36
Issue:
20
ISSN:
0894-8755
Page Range / eLocation ID:
7061 to 7072
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO. 
    more » « less
  2. null (Ed.)
    Remote influences of ENSO are known to vary with different phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Here, observational and reanalysis data from 1920 to 2014 are analyzed to present a global synthesis of the IPO’s modulation on ENSO teleconnections, followed by a modeling investigation. Regressions of surface air temperature T, precipitation P, and atmospheric circulations upon IPO and ENSO indices reveal substantial differences between ENSO and IPO teleconnections to regional T and P in terms of spatial pattern, magnitude, and seasonality. The IPO’s modulation on ENSO teleconnections asymmetrically varies with both IPO and ENSO phases. For a given ENSO phase, IPO’s modulations are not symmetric between its two phases; for a given IPO SST anomaly, its influence depends on whether it is superimposed on El Niño, La Niña, or neutral ENSO. The IPO modulations are linked to the atmospheric response to tropical SST anomalies, manifested in the local Hadley circulation and the local Walker circulation at low latitudes and the Rossby wave train in the extratropics, including the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. A set of numerical experiments using CAM5 forced with different combinations of the IPO- and ENSO-related SSTs further shows that the asymmetric modulation arises from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation, so that the atmospheric circulation response to the same IPO-induced SST departure is larger during a warm rather than a cold ENSO phase, and the response to a warm IPO state is larger than that to a cold IPO state. The asymmetry depends primarily on the tropical Pacific mean state and tropical SST anomalies and secondarily on extratropical SST anomalies. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Significant winter [December–February (DJF)] precipitation over southern China (SC) is one of the key features of the East Asian winter monsoon, accounting for nearly 20% of annual precipitation in the area. While oceanic drivers of its interannual variability are extensively studied, the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), contributing approximately 30%–40% of the climatological wintertime precipitation in SC, remains unclear. Additionally, how seasonal forecast models capture the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations on winter precipitation through ARs requires further investigation using objective metrics. This study identifies a tropical SST pattern involving El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean dipole, and the SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP), whose coevolving structure rapidly develops from the preceding summer to winter. This anomalous SST configuration generates a hemispheric-scale circulation pattern from the tropics to the subtropics, which enhances vertical wind shear and meridional moisture transport over SC, favoring increased AR intrusion into the region. Consequently, significant precipitation anomalies occur particularly near SC along 20°–30°N, explaining over 50% of the interannual DJF precipitation variability. These ENSO-driven precipitation changes, mediated by AR activity, are reasonably predicted by two operational seasonal forecast systems, suggesting that ENSO and its interaction with WNP SST anomalies serve as the primary sources of forecast skill for winter ARs and SC precipitation. Furthermore, a screening scheme based on the observed SST and circulation states during October and November preceding the target winter is developed to determine the years in which the dynamical model forecast skill for SC DJF precipitation is higher than in other winters. Significance StatementA coupling pattern between atmospheric rivers (ARs), accounting for one-third of December–February (DJF) precipitation in climatology, and large-scale circulation plays a critical role in shaping the winter (DJF) precipitation variability in southern China (SC). This mode, characterized by a low pressure anomaly over central China and more active ARs steered into the region, explains at least 50% of the region’s total DJF precipitation variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), along with related sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific, acts as the primary driver of this large-scale circulation–AR coupling. As this ENSO-driven process is reasonably well captured by current seasonal forecast systems, this process could be the main source enabling an improved seasonal forecast of SC winter precipitation. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern has been linked both to tropical phenomena, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and to internal extratropical processes, including interactions with the zonally varying basic state and synoptic eddies. Many questions remain, however, concerning how these various relationships act, both separately and together, to yield observed PNA variability. Using linear inverse modeling (LIM), this study finds that the development and amplification of PNA anomalies largely results from the interference of modes strongly coupled to sea surface temperatures (SST), such as ENSO, and modes internal to the atmosphere, including the MJO. These SST-coupled and “internal atmospheric” modes form subspaces that are not orthogonal, and PNA growth is shown to occur via non-normal interactions. An internal atmospheric space LIM is developed to examine growth beyond this interference by removing the SST-coupled modes, effectively removing ENSO and retaining MJO variability. Optimal PNA growth in the internal atmospheric space LIM is driven by MJO heating, particularly over the Indian Ocean, and a retrograding northeast Pacific streamfunction anomaly. Additionally, the individual contributions of tropical heating and the extratropical circulation on PNA growth are investigated. The non-normal PNA growth is an important result, demonstrating the difficulty in partitioning PNA variance into contributions from different phenomena. This cautionary result is likely applicable to many geophysical phenomena and should be considered in attribution studies. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) has long been associated with extra‐tropical air‐sea coupling processes, which are thought to influence the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we show that the PMM on seasonal to interannual timescales is closely associated with a newly proposed tropical mode known as the ENSO Combination mode (C‐mode), which arises from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle in the deep tropics. The PMM exhibits a remarkable resemblance with the C‐mode in atmospheric patterns, spectral characteristics, and local impacts. Based on a simple Hasselmann‐type model, we further demonstrate that the C‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies can effectively drive PMM‐like sea surface temperature anomalies. As the C‐mode captures seasonally modulated ENSO characteristics, the seasonal‐to‐interannual PMM variability could naturally establish a connection with ENSO, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the observed relationship between PMM and ENSO. 
    more » « less