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ABSTRACT Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution n(z). Due to the challenge of running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in the high-dimensional parameter spaces in which the n(z) uncertainties may be parametrized, it is common practice to simplify the n(z) parametrization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed n(z) resampled from the n(z) uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the n(z) uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalogue, and find that these methods recover statistically consistent error bars for the cosmological parameter constraints for predicted HSC three-year analysis, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for data sets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey data set (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over n(z) uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may modify the 1σ uncertainties on Ωm–S8 constraints by ∼4 per cent, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.
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Lyapunov Conditions for Differentiability of Markov Chain Expectations
We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The derivatives and their continuity of the performance measures w.r.t. the parameters play important roles, for example, in numerical optimization of the performance measures, and quantification of the uncertainties in the performance measures when there are uncertainties in the parameters from the statistical estimation procedures. In this paper, we establish conditions that guarantee the smoothness of various types of intractable performance measures—such as the stationary and random horizon discounted performance measures—of general state space Markov chains and provide probabilistic representations for the derivatives. Funding: C.-H. Rhee is supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant CMMI-2146530].
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- Award ID(s):
- 2146530
- PAR ID:
- 10500378
- Publisher / Repository:
- IINFORMS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Mathematics of Operations Research
- ISSN:
- 0364-765X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2022.1328
