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1. Physics-Guided Recurrent Graph Model for Predicting Flow and Temperature in River Networks

   Jia, X.; Zwart, J.; Sadler, J.: Appling; Oliver, S.; Markstrom, S.; Willard, J.; Xu, S.; Steinbach, M.; Read, J.; Kumar, V. (April 2021, Proceedings of the 2021 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining)

   Demeniconi, Carlotta; Davidson, Ian (Ed.)

   This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines machine learning models and physics-based models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent graph network model to capture the interactions among multiple segments in the river network. Then we transfer knowledge from physics-based models to guide the learning of the machine learning model. We also propose a new loss function that balances the performance over different river segments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in predicting temperature and streamflow in a subset of the Delaware River Basin. In particular, the proposed method has brought a 33%/14% accuracy improvement over the state-of-the-art physics-based model and 24%/14% over traditional machine learning models (e.g., LSTM) in temperature/streamflow prediction using very sparse (0.1%) training data. The proposed method has also been shown to produce better performance when generalized to different seasons or river segments with different streamflow ranges. 

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2. Multi-Scale Graph Learning for Anti-Sparse Downscaling

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v39i27.35014  

   Fan, Yingda; Yu, Runlong; Barclay, Janet R; Appling, Alison P; Sun, Yiming; Xie, Yiqun; Jia, Xiaowei (April 2025, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   Water temperature can vary substantially even across short distances within the same sub-watershed. Accurate prediction of stream water temperature at fine spatial resolutions (i.e., fine scales, ≤ 1 km) enables precise interventions to maintain water quality and protect aquatic habitats. Although spatiotemporal models have made substantial progress in spatially coarse time series modeling, challenges persist in predicting at fine spatial scales due to the lack of data at that scale. To address the problem of insufficient fine-scale data, we propose a Multi-Scale Graph Learning (MSGL) method. This method employs a multi-task learning framework where coarse-scale graph learning, bolstered by larger datasets, simultaneously enhances fine-scale graph learning. Although existing multi-scale or multi-resolution methods integrate data from different spatial scales, they often overlook the spatial correspondences across graph structures at various scales. To address this, our MSGL introduces an additional learning task, cross-scale interpolation learning, which leverages the hydrological connectedness of stream locations across coarse- and fine-scale graphs to establish cross-scale connections, thereby enhancing overall model performance. Furthermore, we have broken free from the mindset that multi-scale learning is limited to synchronous training by proposing an Asynchronous Multi-Scale Graph Learning method (ASYNC-MSGL). Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method for anti-sparse downscaling of daily stream temperatures in the Delaware River Basin, USA, highlighting its potential utility for water resources monitoring and management. 

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3. Physics-Guided Fair Graph Sampling for Water Temperature Prediction in River Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v39i27.35025  

   He, Erhu; Kutscher, Declan; Xie, Yiqun; Zwart, Jacob; Jiang, Zhe; Yao, Huaxiu; Jia, Xiaowei (April 2025, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   This work introduces a novel graph neural networks (GNNs)-based method to predict stream water temperature and reduce model bias across locations of different income and education levels. Traditional physics-based models often have limited accuracy because they are necessarily approximations of reality. Recently, there has been an increasing interest of using GNNs in modeling complex water dynamics in stream networks. Despite their promise in improving the accuracy, GNNs can bring additional model bias through the aggregation process, where node features are updated by aggregating neighboring nodes. The bias can be especially pronounced when nodes with similar sensitive attributes are frequently connected. We introduce a new method that leverages physical knowledge to represent the node influence in GNNs, and then utilizes physics-based influence to refine the selection and weights over the neighbors. The objective is to facilitate equitable treatment over different sensitive groups in the graph aggregation, which helps reduce spatial bias over locations, especially for those in underprivileged groups. The results on the Delaware River Basin demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in preserving equitable performance across locations in different sensitive groups. 

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4. Large Graph Property Prediction via Graph Segment Training

   Cao, Kaidi; Phothilimthana, Phitchaya Mangpo; Abu-El-Haija, Sami; Zelle, Dustin; Zhou, Yanqi; Mendis, Charith; Leskovec, Jure; Perozzi, Bryan (December 2023, Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Learning to predict properties of a large graph is challenging because each prediction requires the knowledge of an entire graph, while the amount of memory available during training is bounded. Here we propose Graph Segment Training (GST), a general framework that utilizes a divide-and-conquer approach to allow learning large graph property prediction with a constant memory footprint. GST first divides a large graph into segments and then backpropagates through only a few segments sampled per training iteration. We refine the GST paradigm by introducing a historical embedding table to efficiently obtain embeddings for segments not sampled for backpropagation. To mitigate the staleness of historical embeddings, we design two novel techniques. First, we finetune the prediction head to fix the input distribution shift. Second, we introduce Stale Embedding Dropout to drop some stale embeddings during training to reduce bias. We evaluate our complete method GST+EFD (with all the techniques together) on two large graph property prediction benchmarks: MalNet and TpuGraphs. Our experiments show that GST+EFD is both memory-efficient and fast, while offering a slight boost on test accuracy over a typical full graph training regime. 

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5. A spatial–temporal graph deep learning model for urban flood nowcasting leveraging heterogeneous community features

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32548-x  

   Farahmand, Hamed; Xu, Yuanchang; Mostafavi, Ali (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Flood nowcasting refers to near-future prediction of flood status as an extreme weather event unfolds to enhance situational awareness. The objective of this study was to adopt and test a novel structured deep-learning model for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial–temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold: first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features (e.g., rainfall intensity and water elevation) and human-sensed data (e.g., residents’ flood reports and fluctuations of human activity) on flood nowcasting. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus to the most influential features that vary dynamically and influence the flood nowcasting. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the study area and 2017 Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Three categories of features are used for nowcasting the extent of flood inundation in different census tracts: (i) static features that capture spatial characteristics of various locations and influence their flood status similarity, (ii) physics-based dynamic features that capture changes in hydrodynamic variables, and (iii) heterogeneous human-sensed dynamic features that capture various aspects of residents’ activities that can provide information regarding flood status. Results indicate that the ASTGCN model provides superior performance for nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census-tract level, with precision 0.808 and recall 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with other state-of-the-art models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting. Given the results of the comparisons of the models, the proposed modeling framework has the potential to be more investigated when more data of historical events are available in order to develop a predictive tool to provide community responders with an enhanced prediction of the flood inundation during urban flood. 

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