Populations declining toward extinction can persist via genetic adaptation in a process called evolutionary rescue. Predicting evolutionary rescue has applications ranging from conservation biology to medicine, but requires understanding and integrating the multiple effects of a stressful environmental change on population processes. Here we derive a simple expression for how generation time, a key determinant of the rate of evolution, varies with population size during evolutionary rescue. Change in generation time is quantitatively predicted by comparing how intraspecific competition and the source of maladaptation each affect the rates of births and deaths in the population. Depending on the difference between two parameters quantifying these effects, the model predicts that populations may experience substantial changes in their rate of adaptation in both positive and negative directions, or adapt consistently despite severe stress. These predictions were then tested by comparison to the results of individual-based simulations of evolutionary rescue, which validated that the tolerable rate of environmental change varied considerably as described by analytical results. We discuss how these results inform efforts to understand wildlife disease and adaptation to climate change, evolution in managed populations and treatment resistance in pathogens.
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Disease‐smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation
Climate change is a well‐documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate‐change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease‐smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.
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- PAR ID:
- 10509700
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1540-9295
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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