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1. Bayesian inference and uncertainty propagation using efficient fractional-order viscoelastic models for dielectric elastomers

   https://doi.org/10.1177/1045389X20969847  

   Miles, Paul_R; Pash, Graham_T; Smith, Ralph_C; Oates, William_S (November 2020, Journal of Intelligent Material Systems and Structures)

   Dielectric elastomers are employed for a wide variety of adaptive structures. Many of these soft elastomers exhibit significant rate-dependencies in their response. Accurately quantifying this viscoelastic behavior is non-trivial and in many cases a nonlinear modeling framework is required. Fractional-order operators have been applied to modeling viscoelastic behavior for many years, and recent research has shown fractional-order methods to be effective for nonlinear frameworks. This implementation can become computationally expensive to achieve an accurate approximation of the fractional-order derivative. Accurate estimation of the elastomer’s viscoelastic behavior to quantify parameter uncertainty motivates the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Since MCMC is a sampling based method, requiring many model evaluations, efficient estimation of the fractional derivative operator is crucial. In this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of using quadrature techniques to approximate the Riemann–Liouville definition for fractional derivatives in the context of estimating the uncertainty of a nonlinear viscoelastic model. We also demonstrate the use of parameter subset selection techniques to isolate parameters that are identifiable in the sense that they are uniquely determined by measured data. For those identifiable parameters, we employ Bayesian inference to compute posterior distributions for parameters. Finally, we propagate parameter uncertainties through the models to compute prediction intervals for quantities of interest. 

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2. Algebraic identifiability of partial differential equation models

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/ada510  

   Byrne, Helen M; Harrington, Heather A; Ovchinnikov, Alexey; Pogudin, Gleb; Rahkooy, Hamid; Soto, Pedro (January 2025, Nonlinearity)

   Differential equation models are crucial to scientific processes across many disciplines, and the values of model parameters are important for analyzing the behaviour of solutions. Identifying these values is known as a parameter estimation, a type of inverse problem, which has applications in areas that include industry, finance and biomedicine. A parameter is called globally identifiable if its value can be uniquely determined from the input and output functions. Checking the global identifiability of model parameters is a useful tool when exploring the well-posedness of a given model. This problem has been intensively studied for ordinary differential equation models, where theory, several efficient algorithms and software packages have been developed. A comprehensive theory for PDEs has hitherto not been developed due to the complexity of initial and boundary conditions. Here, we provide theory and algorithms, based on differential algebra, for testing identifiability of polynomial PDE models. We showcase this approach on PDE models arising in the sciences. 

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3. Parameter-robust multiphysics algorithms for Biot model with application in brain edema simulation

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2020.04.027  

   Ju, Guoliang; Cai, Mingchao; Li, Jingzhi; Tian, Jing (November 2020, Mathematics and computers in simulation)

   In this paper, we develop parameter-robust numerical algorithms for Biot model and apply the algorithms in brain edema simulations. By introducing an intermediate variable, we derive a multiphysics reformulation of the Biot model. Based on the reformulation, the Biot model is viewed as a generalized Stokes subproblem combining with a reaction–diffusion subproblem. Solving the two subproblems together or separately leads to a coupled or a decoupled algorithm. We conduct extensive numerical experiments to show that the two algorithms are robust with respect to the key physical parameters. The algorithms are applied to study the brain swelling caused by abnormal accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid in injured areas. The effects of the key physical parameters on brain swelling are carefully investigated. It is observed that the permeability has the biggest influence on intracranial pressure (ICP) and tissue deformation; the Young’s modulus and the Poisson ratio do not affect the maximum value of ICP too much but have big influence on the tissue deformation and the developing speed of brain swelling. 

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4. Geometrically Motivated Reparameterization for Identifiability Analysis in Power Systems Models

   https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2018.8600617  

   Transtrum, Mark K.; Francis, Benjamin L.; Youn, Clifford C.; Saric, Andrija T.; Stankovic, Aleksander M. (September 2018, 2018 North American Power Symposium (NAPS))

   This paper describes a geometric approach to parameter identifiability analysis in models of power systems dynamics. When a model of a power system is to be compared with measurements taken at discrete times, it can be interpreted as a mapping from parameter space into a data or prediction space. Generically, model mappings can be interpreted as manifolds with dimensionality equal to the number of structurally identifiable parameters. Empirically it is observed that model mappings often correspond to bounded manifolds. We propose a new definition of practical identifiability based the topological definition of a manifold with boundary. In many ways, our proposed definition extends the properties of structural identifiability. We construct numerical approximations to geodesics on the model manifold and use the results, combined with insights derived from the mathematical form of the equations, to identify combinations of practically identifiable and unidentifiable parameters. We give several examples of application to dynamic power systems models. 

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5. Joint Estimation of the Arrival Rate and Customer Taste Coefficients From Censored Transactional Data

   https://doi.org/10.1177/10591478251327753  

   Wang, X; Xu, W (March 2025, Production and Operations Management)

   This work aims to jointly estimate the arrival rate of customers to a market and the nested logit model that forecasts hierarchical customer choices from an assortment of products. The estimation is based on censored transactional data, where lost sales are not recorded. The goal is to determine the arrival rate, customer taste coefficients, and nest dissimilarity parameters that maximize the likelihood of the observed data. The problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood estimation model that addresses two prevailing challenges in the existing literature: Estimating demand fromdata with unobservable lost salesand capturingcustomer taste heterogeneity arising from hierarchical choices. However, the model is intractable to solve or analyze due to the nonconcavity of the likelihood function in both taste coefficients and dissimilarity parameters. We characterize conditions under which the model parameters are identifiable. Our results reveal that the parameter identification is influenced by thediversity of products and nests. We also develop a sequential minorization-maximization algorithm to solve the problem, by which the problem boils down to solving a series of convex optimization models with simple structures. Then, we show the convergence of the algorithm by leveraging the structural properties of these models. We evaluate the performance of the algorithm by comparing it with widely used benchmarks, using both synthetic and real data. Our findings show that the algorithm consistently outperforms the benchmarks in maximizing in-sample likelihood and ranks among the top two in out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Moreover, our algorithm is particularly effective in estimating nested logit models with low dissimilarity parameters, yielding higher profitability compared to the benchmarks. 

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