An official website of the United States government
Coastal populations are facing increasing environmental stress from coastal hazards including sea level rise, increasing tidal ranges, and storm surges from hurricanes. The East and Gulf Coasts of the United States (U.S.) are projected to face high rates of sea level rise and include many of the U.S.’s largest urban populations. This study proposes modelling land-use change and coastal change between 1996-2019 to project the impacts of intensifying coastal hazards on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast populations and to estimate how coastal populations are growing or retreating from high-risk areas. The primary objective is to develop a multifaceted spatial-temporal (MuST) framework to model coastal change through land-use projections and thorough analysis of the indicators of coastal urban growth or retreat. While urban growth models exist, one that presents an interdisciplinary evaluation of potential growth and retreat due to geographic factors and coastal hazards has not been released. This study proposes modelling urban growth using geospatial metrics including topographic slope, topographic elevation, distance to existing urban areas, distance to existing roads, and distance to the coast. The model will also use historic hurricane data, including storm track and footprint for named storms between 1996-2019 and the associated flood claims data from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to account for existing impacts from coastal storms. Additionally, climate change data including sea level rise projections and future tidal ranges will be incorporated to project the impacts of future coastal hazards on urban expansion over the next 30 years (2020-2050). The basis of the urban growth model compares land-use change between 1996-2019 to complete a geospatial analysis of both the areas shifting from rural (agricultural, forest, wetlands) to urban, indicating growth and population data from 2000-2020, to evaluate coastal retreat or abandonment over the next 30 years.
more »
« less
Crafting effective oversight for the long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel on sites at risk of climate and coastal hazards
Despite a documented push to expand nuclear energy in the U.S., the status quo of indefinite in-situ nuclear waste storage is uncertain and increasingly threatened by climate and coastal hazards. Findings from Humboldt Bay, California, one of the nation’s most vulnerable nuclear storage sites, informed recommendations for managing emergent climate and coastal hazards. The existing legislative framework was not designed to address climate and nuclear waste interactions, but more effective oversight leveraging existing federal, state, local, and Tribal government authorities could adapt spent nuclear fuel management to a climate-changed world. More effective oversight requires updated regulations and site-specific risk assessments as well as enhanced coordination across jurisdictions, disciplines, and publics to increase legitimacy, trust, accountability, and creativity in light of failed solutions to a multi-decadal issue.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2103713
- PAR ID:
- 10521733
- Publisher / Repository:
- Frontiers
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Climate
- Volume:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2624-9553
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Managing and adapting to climate change in urban areas will become increasingly important as urban populations grow, especially because unique features of cities amplify climate change impacts. High impervious cover exacerbates impacts of climate warming through urban heat island effects and of heavy rainfall by magnifying runoff and flooding. Concentration of human settlements along rivers and coastal zones increases exposure of people and infrastructure to climate change hazards, often disproportionately affecting those who are least prepared. Nature-based strategies (NBS), which use living organisms, soils and sediments, and/or landscape features to reduce climate change hazards, hold promise as being more flexible, multi-functional and adaptable to an uncertain and non-stationary climate future than traditional approaches. Nevertheless, future research should address the effectiveness of NBS for reducing climate change impacts and whether they can be implemented at scales appropriate to climate change hazards and impacts. Further, there is a need for accurate and comprehensive cost–benefit analyses that consider disservices and co-benefits, relative to grey alternatives, and how costs and benefits are distributed across different communities. NBS are most likely to be effective and fair when they match the scale of the challenge, are implemented with input from diverse voices and are appropriate to specific social, cultural, ecological and technological contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.more » « less
-
Wind-generated waves are dominant drivers of coastal dynamics and vulnerability, which have considerable impacts on littoral ecosystems and socioeconomic activities. It is therefore paramount to improve coastal hazards predictions through the better understanding of connections between wave activity and climate variability. In the Pacific, the dominant climate mode is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has known a renaissance of scientific interest leading to great theoretical advances in the past decade. Yet studies on ENSO’s coastal impacts still rely on the oversimplified picture of the canonical dipole across the Pacific. Here, we consider the full ENSO variety to delineate its essential teleconnection pathways to tropical and extratropical storminess. These robust seasonally modulated relationships allow us to develop a mathematical model of coastal wave modulation essentially driven by ENSO’s complex temporal and spatial behavior. Accounting for this nonlinear climate control on Pan-Pacific wave activity leads to a much better characterization of waves’ seasonal to interannual variability (+25% in explained variance) and intensity of extremes (+60% for strong ENSO events), therefore paving the way for significantly more accurate forecasts than formerly possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal hazards.more » « less
-
In the context of climate change, the term resilience was popularized by the field of ecology to describe how ecological systems respond to stress and has since been adopted and significantly adapted by various fields, including psychology, policy, urban planning, and engineering. The exact meaning of resilience has blurred over time. In the context of coastal hazards, “resilience” is a holistic idea that relates long and short-term physical hazards with societal and biological impacts and mitigation measures. However, applying this idea to community-based mitigation planning remains challenging due to: (1) the diverse meanings, perspectives, and applications of the term, (2) the tendency of the term to defer to the status quo, thereby neglecting the voices of historically marginalized populations, and (3) the non-participatory and quantitative nature of resilience studies, often depending on cost-benefit analyses. In this paper, an interdisciplinary team of researchers and practitioners develops and proposes a new conceptual model for coastal resilience that offers to help address these aforementioned challenges by focusing on meaningful community engagement. The goal of this paper is to introduce the pitfalls of existing interpretations of coastal resilience, describe the team-based approach applied to develop this framework, and provide a theoretical path forward that addresses the current challenges in describing coastal resilience. This new framework (a) integrates relevant factors of coastal resilience including hazards, exposure, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation and preparedness to qualitatively explore a community’s perception and state of resilience which (b) transcends existing models and (c) can be interpreted through a variety of perspectives. This model can be applied to document and assess locally differential understandings of coastal resilience and to engage communities in reflections of their individual and collective sense of resilience.more » « less
-
Abstract Artificial Intelligence applications are rapidly expanding across weather, climate, and natural hazards. AI can be used to assist with forecasting weather and climate risks, including forecasting both the chance that a hazard will occur and the negative impacts from it, which means AI can help protect lives, property, and livelihoods on a global scale in our changing climate. To ensure that we are achieving this goal, the AI must be developed to be trustworthy, which is a complex and multifaceted undertaking. We present our work from the NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), where we are taking a convergence research approach. Our work deeply integrates across AI, environmental, and risk communication sciences. This involves collaboration with professional end-users to investigate how they assess the trustworthiness and usefulness of AI methods for forecasting natural hazards. In turn, we use this knowledge to develop AI that is more trustworthy. We discuss how and why end-users may trust or distrust AI methods for multiple natural hazards, including winter weather, tropical cyclones, severe storms, and coastal oceanography.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1356724
