Context.Predicting geomagnetic events starts with an understanding of the Sun-Earth chain phenomena in which (interplanetary) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) play an important role in bringing about intense geomagnetic storms. It is not always straightforward to determine the solar source of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) detected at 1 au. Aims.The aim of this study is to test by a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation the chain of a series of CME events detected from L1 back to the Sun in order to determine the relationship between remote and in situ CMEs. Methods.We analysed both remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements of a well-defined magnetic cloud (MC) detected at L1 occurring on 28 June 2013. The MHD modelling is provided by the 3D MHD European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) simulation model. Results.After computing the background solar wind, we tested the trajectories of six CMEs occurring in a time window of five days before a well-defined MC at L1 that may act as the candidate of the MC. We modelled each CME using the cone model. The test involving all the CMEs indicated that the main driver of the well-defined, long-duration MC was a slow CME. For the corresponding MC, we retrieved the arrival time and the observed proton density. Conclusions.EUHFORIA confirms the results obtained in the George Mason data catalogue concerning this chain of events. However, their proposed solar source of the CME is disputable. The slow CME at the origin of the MC could have its solar source in a small, emerging region at the border of a filament channel at latitude and longitude equal to +14 degrees.
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The spheroid CME model in EUHFORIA
Predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation and impact in the heliosphere, in either research or operational settings, are usually performed by employing magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. Within such simulations, the CME ejecta is often described as a hydrodynamic pulse that lacks an internal magnetic field and is characterized by a spherical geometry – leading to the so-called cone CME model. White-light observations of CMEs in the corona, however, reveal that the morphology of these structures resembles more closely that of a croissant, i.e., exhibiting an elongated cross-section of their front. It follows that, in space weather forecasts, the assumption of a spherical geometry may result in erroneous predictions of CME impacts in the heliosphere in terms of hit/miss and arrival time/speed, especially in the case of flank encounters. A spheroid CME model is expected to provide a more accurate description of the elongated morphology that is often observed in CMEs. In this paper, we describe the implementation and initial validation of the spheroid CME model within the MHD EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code. We perform EUHFORIA simulations of an idealized CME as well as a “real” event to compare the spheroidal model with the traditional cone one. We show how the initial ejecta geometry can lead to substantially different estimates in terms of CME impact, arrival time/speed, and geoeffectiveness, especially with increasing distance to the CME nose.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1854790
- PAR ID:
- 10523469
- Publisher / Repository:
- J. Space Weather Space Clim.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
- Volume:
- 14
- ISSN:
- 2115-7251
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 13
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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