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1. Connectivity, reproduction number, and mobility interact to determine communities’ epidemiological superspreader potential in a metapopulation network

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008674  

   Lieberthal, Brandon; Gardner, Allison M. (March 2021, PLOS Computational Biology)

   Althouse, Benjamin Muir (Ed.)

   Disease epidemic outbreaks on human metapopulation networks are often driven by a small number of superspreader nodes, which are primarily responsible for spreading the disease throughout the network. Superspreader nodes typically are characterized either by their locations within the network, by their degree of connectivity and centrality, or by their habitat suitability for the disease, described by their reproduction number ( R ). Here we introduce a model that considers simultaneously the effects of network properties and R on superspreaders, as opposed to previous research which considered each factor separately. This type of model is applicable to diseases for which habitat suitability varies by climate or land cover, and for direct transmitted diseases for which population density and mitigation practices influences R . We present analytical models that quantify the superspreader capacity of a population node by two measures: probability-dependent superspreader capacity, the expected number of neighboring nodes to which the node in consideration will randomly spread the disease per epidemic generation, and time-dependent superspreader capacity, the rate at which the node spreads the disease to each of its neighbors. We validate our analytical models with a Monte Carlo analysis of repeated stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) simulations on randomly generated human population networks, and we use a random forest statistical model to relate superspreader risk to connectivity, R , centrality, clustering, and diffusion. We demonstrate that either degree of connectivity or R above a certain threshold are sufficient conditions for a node to have a moderate superspreader risk factor, but both are necessary for a node to have a high-risk factor. The statistical model presented in this article can be used to predict the location of superspreader events in future epidemics, and to predict the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that seek to reduce the value of R , alter host movements, or both. 

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2. Stability and Robustness Analysis of Epidemic Networks with Multiple Time-Delays

   https://doi.org/10.23919/ACC53348.2022.9867254  

   Darabi, Atefe; Siami, Milad (January 2022, 2022 American Control Conference (ACC))

   Several sources of delay in an epidemic network might negatively affect the stability and robustness of the entire network. In this paper, a multi-delayed Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model is applied on a metapopulation network, where the epidemic delays are categorized into local and global delays. While local delays result from intra-population lags such as symptom development duration or recovery period, global delays stem from inter-population lags, e.g., transition duration between subpopulations. The theoretical results for a network of subpopulations with identical linear SIS dynamics and different types of time-delay show that depending on the type of time-delay in the network, different eigenvalues of the underlying graph should be evaluated to obtain the feasible regions of stability. The delay-dependent stability of such epidemic networks has been analytically derived, which eliminates potentially expensive computations required by current algorithms. The effect of time-delay on the H2 norm-based performance of a class of epidemic networks with additive noise inputs and multiple delays is studied and the closed form of their performance measure is derived using the solution of delayed Lyapunov equations. As a case study, the theoretical findings are implemented on a network of United States’ busiest airports. 

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3. Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/ac3fc3  

   Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I; Deng, Shengfeng; Serrao, Shannon R; Priyanka; Childs, Lauren M; Täuber, Uwe C (December 2021, Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical)

   Abstract We employ individual-based Monte Carlo computer simulations of a stochastic SEIR model variant on a two-dimensional Newman–Watts small-world network to investigate the control of epidemic outbreaks through periodic testing and isolation of infectious individuals, and subsequent quarantine of their immediate contacts. Using disease parameters informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate the effects of various crucial mitigation features on the epidemic spreading: fraction of the infectious population that is identifiable through the tests; testing frequency; time delay between testing and isolation of positively tested individuals; and the further time delay until quarantining their contacts as well as the quarantine duration. We thus determine the required ranges for these intervention parameters to yield effective control of the disease through both considerable delaying the epidemic peak and massively reducing the total number of sustained infections. 

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4. Cattle transport network predicts endemic and epidemic foot-and-mouth disease risk on farms in Turkey

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010354  

   Herrera-Diestra, José L.; Tildesley, Michael; Shea, Katriona; Ferrari, Matthew J. (August 2022, PLOS Computational Biology)

   Hill, Alison L. (Ed.)

   The structure of contact networks affects the likelihood of disease spread at the population scale and the risk of infection at any given node. Though this has been well characterized for both theoretical and empirical networks for the spread of epidemics on completely susceptible networks, the long-term impact of network structure on risk of infection with an endemic pathogen, where nodes can be infected more than once, has been less well characterized. Here, we analyze detailed records of the transportation of cattle among farms in Turkey to characterize the global and local attributes of the directed—weighted shipments network between 2007-2012. We then study the correlations between network properties and the likelihood of infection with, or exposure to, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) over the same time period using recorded outbreaks. The shipments network shows a complex combination of features (local and global) that have not been previously reported in other networks of shipments; i.e. small-worldness, scale-freeness, modular structure, among others. We find that nodes that were either infected or at high risk of infection with FMD (within one link from an infected farm) had disproportionately higher degree, were more central (eigenvector centrality and coreness), and were more likely to be net recipients of shipments compared to those that were always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. High in-degree (i.e. many shipments received) was the best univariate predictor of infection. Low in-coreness (i.e. peripheral nodes) was the best univariate predictor of nodes always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. These results are robust across the three different serotypes of FMD observed in Turkey and during periods of low-endemic prevalence and high-prevalence outbreaks. 

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5. A Low-Dimensional Network Model for an SIS Epidemic: Analysis of the Super Compact Pairwise Model

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00907-2  

   Corcoran, Carl; Hastings, Alan (July 2021, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Network-based models of epidemic spread have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Despite a rich foundation of such models, few low-dimensional systems for modeling SIS-type diseases have been proposed that manage to capture the complex dynamics induced by the network structure. We analyze one recently introduced model and derive important epidemiological quantities for the system. We derive the epidemic threshold and analyze the bifurcation that occurs, and we use asymptotic techniques to derive an approximation for the endemic equilibrium when it exists. We consider the sensitivity of this approximation to network parameters, and the implications for disease control measures are found to be in line with the results of existing studies. 

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