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1. An assessment of early 20th century Antarctic pressure reconstructions using historical observations

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6718  

   Fogt, Ryan L.; Belak, Connor P.; Jones, Julie M.; Slivinski, Laura C.; Compo, Gilbert P. (July 2020, International Journal of Climatology)

   Abstract While gridded seasonal pressure reconstructions poleward of 60°S extending back to 1905 have been recently completed, their skill has not been assessed prior to 1958. To provide a more thorough evaluation of the skill and performance in the early 20th century, these reconstructions are compared to other gridded datasets, historical data from early Antarctic expeditions, ship records, and temporary bases. Overall, the comparison confirms that the reconstruction uncertainty of 2–4 hPa (evaluated after 1979) over the Southern Ocean is a valid estimate of the reconstruction error in the early 20th century. Over the interior and near the coast of Antarctica, direct comparisons with historical data are challenged by elevation‐based reductions to sea level pressure. In a few cases, a simple linear adjustment of the reconstruction to sea level matches the historical data well, but in other cases, the differences remain greater than 10 hPa. Despite these large errors, comparisons with continuous multi‐season observations demonstrate that aspects of the interannual variability are often still captured, suggesting that the reconstructions have skill representing variations on this timescale, even if it is difficult to determine how well they capture the mean pressure at these higher elevations. Additional comparisons with various 20th‐century reanalysis products demonstrate the value of assimilating the historical observations in these datasets, which acts to substantially reduce the reanalysis ensemble spread, and bring the reanalysis ensemble mean within the reconstruction and observational uncertainty. 

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2. Southern Hemisphere Pressure Relationships during the 20th Century—Implications for Climate Reconstructions and Model Evaluation

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9100413  

   Clark, Logan; Fogt, Ryan (October 2019, Geosciences)

   The relationship between Southern Hemisphere middle and high-latitude regions has made it possible to generate observationally-based Antarctic pressure reconstructions throughout the 20th century, even though routinely collected observations for this continent only began around 1957. While nearly all reconstructions inherently assume stability in these relationships through time and in the absence of direct observations, this stationarity constraint can be fully tested in a model setting. Seasonal pressure reconstructions based on the principal component regression (PCR) method spanning 1905–2013 are done entirely within the framework of the Community Atmospheric version 5 (CAM5) model in this study in order to evaluate this assumption, test the robustness of the PCR procedure for Antarctic pressure reconstructions and to evaluate the CAM5 model. Notably, the CAM5 reconstructions outperformed the observationally-based reconstruction in every season except the austral summer. Other tests indicate that relationships between Antarctic pressure and pressure across the Southern Hemisphere remain stable throughout the 20th century in CAM5. In contrast, 20th century reanalyses all display marked changes in mid-to-high latitude pressure relationships in the early 20th century. Overall, comparisons indicate both the CAM5 model and the pressure reconstructions evaluated here are reliable estimates of Antarctic pressure throughout the 20th century, with the largest differences between the two resulting from differences in the underlying reconstruction predictor networks and not from changes in the model experiments. 

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3. Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37643-1  

   King, Jonathan; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Allen, Kathryn; Vance, Tessa; Hessl, Amy (December 2023, Nature Communications)

   Abstract The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM’s importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends over the Common Era, which may be linked to variability in SAM teleconnections and the influence of specific proxies. Here, we use data assimilation with a multi-model prior to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between the SAM and the proxy records and allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We do find the modern positive trend falls outside the 2 σ range of the prior 2000 years at multidecadal time scales, supporting the inference that the SAM’s positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change. 

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4. Anthropogenic Impacts on Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide Since the 19th Century Inferred From Polar Firn Air and Ice Core Measurements

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033074  

   Aydin, M.; Britten, G. L.; Montzka, S. A.; Buizert, C.; Primeau, F.; Petrenko, V.; Battle, M. B.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Patterson, J.; Hmiel, B.; et al (August 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract Carbonyl sulfide (COS) was measured in firn air collected during seven different field campaigns carried out at four different sites in Greenland and Antarctica between 2001 and 2015. A Bayesian probabilistic statistical model is used to conduct multisite inversions and to reconstruct separate atmospheric histories for Greenland and Antarctica. The firn air inversions cover most of the 20th century over Greenland and extend back to the 19th century over Antarctica. The derived atmospheric histories are consistent with independent surface air time series data from the corresponding sites and the Antarctic ice core COS records during periods of overlap. Atmospheric COS levels began to increase over preindustrial levels starting in the 19th century, and the increase continued for much of the 20th century. Atmospheric COS peaked at higher than present‐day levels around 1975 CE over Greenland and around 1987 CE over Antarctica. An atmosphere/surface ocean box model is used to investigate the possible causes of observed variability. The results suggest that changes in the magnitude and location of anthropogenic sources have had a strong influence on the observed atmospheric COS variability. 

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5. Expedition 382 Scientific Prospectus: Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.382.2018  

   Weber, M.E.; Raymo, M.E.; Peck, V.L.; Williams, T. (May 2018, Scientific prospectus)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 382, Iceberg Alley and South Falkland Slope Ice and Ocean Dynamics, will investigate the long-term climate history of Antarctica, seeking to understand how polar ice sheets responded to changes in atmospheric CO2 in the past and how ice sheet evolution influenced global sea level. We will drill six sites in the Scotia Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, providing the first deep drilling in this region of the Southern Ocean. We expect to recover >600 m of late Neogene sediment that will be used to reconstruct the past history and variability in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Expedition 382 expects to deliver the first spatially and temporally integrated record of iceberg flux from “Iceberg Alley,” the main pathway by which icebergs are calved from the margin of the AIS and travel equatorward into warmer waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In particular, we will characterize the magnitude of iceberg flux during key times of AIS evolution: • The middle Miocene glacial intensification of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pliocene warm interval, • The late Pliocene glacial expansion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, • The mid-Pleistocene transition, and • The “warm interglacials” and glacial terminations of the last 800 ky. We will use the geochemical provenance of iceberg-rafted detritus and other glacially eroded material to determine regional sources of AIS mass loss in this region, address interhemispheric phasing of ice sheet growth and decay, study the distribution and history of land-based versus marine-based ice sheets around the continent over time, and explore the links between AIS variability and global sea level. By comparing north–south variations across the Scotia Sea, Expedition 382 will also deliver critical information on how climate changes in the Southern Ocean affect ocean circulation through the Drake Passage, meridional overturning in the region, water-mass production, CO2 transfer by wind-induced upwelling, sea ice variability, bottom water outflow from the Weddell Sea, Antarctic weathering inputs, and changes in oceanic and atmospheric fronts in the vicinity of the ACC. Comparing changes in dust proxy records between the Scotia Sea and Antarctic ice cores will also provide a detailed reconstruction of changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies on millennial and orbital timescales for the last 800 ky. Extending the ocean dust record beyond the last 800 ky will help to evaluate climate-dust couplings since the Pliocene, the potential role of dust in iron fertilization and atmospheric CO2 drawdown during glacials, and whether dust input to Antarctica played a role in the mid-Pleistocene transition. The principal scientific objective of the South Falkland Slope sites to the north is to reconstruct and understand how ocean circulation and intermediate water formation responds to changes in climate with a special focus on the connectivity between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The South Falkland Slope Drift, a contourite drift on the Falkland margin deposited between 400 and 2000 m water depth, is ideally situated to monitor millennial- to orbital-scale variability in the export of Antarctic Intermediate Water beneath the Subantarctic Front over at least the last 2 My. We anticipate that these sites will yield a wide array of paleoceanographic records that can be used to interpret past changes in the density structure of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and track the migration of the Subantarctic Front. We expect the cored sediments to capture the following significant climate episodes: • The most recent warm interglacials of the late Pleistocene; • The mid-Pleistocene transition, when δ18O records shifted from dominantly 41 to 100 ky periodicity; and possibly • Mid-Pliocene warm intervals, often invoked as the best analog for possible future climate change. 

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