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1. Event-Aware Multimodal Mobility Nowcasting

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i4.20342  

   Wang, Zhaonan; Jiang, Renhe; Xue, Hao; Salim, Flora D.; Song, Xuan; Shibasaki, Ryosuke (June 2022, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   As a decisive part in the success of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), spatio-temporal predictive modeling for crowd movements is a challenging task particularly considering scenarios where societal events drive mobility behavior deviated from the normality. While tremendous progress has been made to model high-level spatio-temporal regularities with deep learning, most, if not all of the existing methods are neither aware of the dynamic interactions among multiple transport modes nor adaptive to unprecedented volatility brought by potential societal events. In this paper, we are therefore motivated to improve the canonical spatio-temporal network (ST-Net) from two perspectives: (1) design a heterogeneous mobility information network (HMIN) to explicitly represent intermodality in multimodal mobility; (2) propose a memory-augmented dynamic filter generator (MDFG) to generate sequence-specific parameters in an on-the-fly fashion for various scenarios. The enhanced event-aware spatio-temporal network, namely EAST-Net, is evaluated on several real-world datasets with a wide variety and coverage of societal events. Both quantitative and qualitative experimental results verify the superiority of our approach compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. Code and data are published on https://github.com/underdoc-wang/EAST-Net. 

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2. Towards Dynamic Crowd Mobility Learning and Meta Model Updates for A Smart Connected Campus

   Yang, X.; He, S.; Tabatabaie, M.; Wang, B. (October 2022, International Conference on Embedded Wireless Systems and Networks EWSN)

   In this paper, we propose MetaMobi, a novel spatio-temporal multi-dots connectivity-aware modeling and Meta model update approach for crowd Mobility learning. MetaMobi analyzes real-world Wi-Fi association data collected from our campus wireless infrastructure, with the goal towards enabling a smart connected campus. Specifically, MetaMobi aims at addressing the following two major challenges with existing crowd mobility sensing system designs: (a) how to handle the spatially, temporally, and contextually varying features in large-scale human crowd mobility distributions; and (b) how to adapt to the impacts of such crowd mobility patterns as well as the dynamic changes in crowd sensing infrastructures. To handle the first challenge, we design a novel multi-dots connectivity-aware learning approach, which jointly learns the crowd flow time series of multiple buildings with fusion of spatial graph connectivities and temporal attention mechanisms. Furthermore, to overcome the adaptivity issues due to changes in the crowd sensing infrastructures (e.g., installation of new ac- cess points), we further design a novel meta model update approach with Bernoulli dropout, which mitigates the over- fitting behaviors of the model given few-shot distributions of new crowd mobility datasets. Extensive experimental evaluations based on the real-world campus wireless dataset (including over 76 million Wi-Fi association and disassociation records) demonstrate the accuracy, effectiveness, and adaptivity of MetaMobi in forecasting the campus crowd flows, with 30% higher accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. 

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3. Using Mobility Data to Understand and Forecast COVID19 Dynamics

   Wang, L; Ben, X; Adiga, A; Tendulkar, A; Venkatramanan, S; Vullikanti, A; Aggarwal, G; Talekar, A; Chen, J; Lewis, B; et al (December 2020, medRxiv)

   null (Ed.)

   Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID- 19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers on the use of GNNs to forecast COVID-19 incidence dynamics and our methods are competitive to existing methods. We show that the spatial and temporal dynamic mobility graph leveraged by the graph neural network enables better long-term forecasting performance compared to baselines. 

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4. COVID-GAN: Estimating Human Mobility Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic through Spatio-Temporal Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3397536.3422261  

   Bao, Han; Zhou, Xun; Zhang, Yingxue; Li, Yanhua; Xie, Yiqun (November 2020, Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems)

   null (Ed.)

   The COVID-19 pandemic has posed grand challenges to policy makers, raising major social conflicts between public health and economic resilience. Policies such as closure or reopen of businesses are made based on scientific projections of infection risks obtained from infection dynamics models. While most parameters in infection dynamics models can be set using domain knowledge of COVID-19, a key parameter - human mobility - is often challenging to estimate due to complex social contexts and limited training data under escalating COVID-19 conditions. To address these challenges, we formulate the problem as a spatio-temporal data generation problem and propose COVID-GAN, a spatio-temporal Conditional Generative Adversarial Network, to estimate mobility (e.g., changes in POI visits) under various real-world conditions (e.g., COVID-19 severity, local policy interventions) integrated from multiple data sources. We also introduce a domain-constraint correction layer in the generator of COVID-GAN to reduce the difficulty of learning. Experiments using urban mobility data derived from cell phone records and census data show that COVID-GAN can well approximate real-world human mobility responses, and that the proposed domain-constraint based correction can greatly improve solution quality. 

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5. CASTNet: A Context-Aware, Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Motion Prediction Ensemble for Autonomous Driving

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3648622  

   Mortlock, Trier; Malawade, Arnav; Tsujio, Kohei; Al_Faruque, Mohammad (April 2024, ACM Transactions on Cyber-Physical Systems)

   Autonomous vehicles are cyber-physical systems that combine embedded computing and deep learning with physical systems to perceive the world, predict future states, and safely control the vehicle through changing environments. The ability of an autonomous vehicle to accurately predict the motion of other road users across a wide range of diverse scenarios is critical for both motion planning and safety. However, existing motion prediction methods do not explicitly model contextual information about the environment, which can cause significant variations in performance across diverse driving scenarios. To address this limitation, we proposeCASTNet: a dynamic, context-aware approach for motion prediction that (i) identifies the current driving context using a spatio-temporal model, (ii) adapts an ensemble of motion prediction models to fit the current context, and (iii) applies novel trajectory fusion methods to combine predictions output by the ensemble. This approach enables CASTNet to improve robustness by minimizing motion prediction error across diverse driving scenarios. CASTNet is highly modular and can be used with various existing image processing backbones and motion predictors. We demonstrate how CASTNet can improve both CNN-based and graph-learning-based motion prediction approaches and conduct ablation studies on the performance, latency, and model size for various ensemble architecture choices. In addition, we propose and evaluate several attention-based spatio-temporal models for context identification and ensemble selection. We also propose a modular trajectory fusion algorithm that effectively filters, clusters, and fuses the predicted trajectories output by the ensemble. On the nuScenes dataset, our approach demonstrates more robust and consistent performance across diverse, real-world driving contexts than state-of-the-art techniques. 

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