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Abstract This paper investigates temporal correlations in human driving behavior using real-world driving to improve speed forecasting accuracy. These correlations can point to a measurement weighting function with two parameters: a forgetting factor for past speed measurements that the vehicle itself drove with, and a discount factor for the speeds of vehicles ahead based on information from vehicle-to-vehicle communication. The developed weighting approach is applied to a vehicle speed predictor using polynomial regression, a prediction method well-known in the literature. The performance of the developed approach is then assessed in both real-world and simulated traffic scenarios for accuracy and robustness. The new weighting method is applied to an ecological adaptive cruise control system, and its influence is analyzed on the prediction accuracy and the performance of the ecological adaptive cruise control in an electric vehicle powertrain model. The results show that the new prediction method improves energy saving from the eco-driving by up to 4.7% compared to a baseline least-square-based polynomial regression. This is a 10% improvement over the constant speed/acceleration model, a conventional speed predictor.
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CASTNet: A Context-Aware, Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Motion Prediction Ensemble for Autonomous Driving
Autonomous vehicles are cyber-physical systems that combine embedded computing and deep learning with physical systems to perceive the world, predict future states, and safely control the vehicle through changing environments. The ability of an autonomous vehicle to accurately predict the motion of other road users across a wide range of diverse scenarios is critical for both motion planning and safety. However, existing motion prediction methods do not explicitly model contextual information about the environment, which can cause significant variations in performance across diverse driving scenarios. To address this limitation, we proposeCASTNet: a dynamic, context-aware approach for motion prediction that (i) identifies the current driving context using a spatio-temporal model, (ii) adapts an ensemble of motion prediction models to fit the current context, and (iii) applies novel trajectory fusion methods to combine predictions output by the ensemble. This approach enables CASTNet to improve robustness by minimizing motion prediction error across diverse driving scenarios. CASTNet is highly modular and can be used with various existing image processing backbones and motion predictors. We demonstrate how CASTNet can improve both CNN-based and graph-learning-based motion prediction approaches and conduct ablation studies on the performance, latency, and model size for various ensemble architecture choices. In addition, we propose and evaluate several attention-based spatio-temporal models for context identification and ensemble selection. We also propose a modular trajectory fusion algorithm that effectively filters, clusters, and fuses the predicted trajectories output by the ensemble. On the nuScenes dataset, our approach demonstrates more robust and consistent performance across diverse, real-world driving contexts than state-of-the-art techniques.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2140154
- PAR ID:
- 10562577
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACM
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM Transactions on Cyber-Physical Systems
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2378-962X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 20
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3648622
