skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Reimagining Earth in the Earth System
Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2224439 2044818 2103539 2217817
PAR ID:
10548032
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Periodicals LLC
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Volume:
16
Issue:
8
ISSN:
1942-2466
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. null (Ed.)
    Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance atthe top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain ofthe Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat isdistributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warmingocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and lossof grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society.This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concertedinternational effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents anupdated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimatesof heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gainover the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ,which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2.Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reportedfor the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods inthe upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 %(5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting ofgrounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Ourresults also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEIamounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization ofclimate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the ParisAgreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero toachieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in theatmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heatradiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energybalance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that thescientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how wellthe world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, andwe call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based onbest available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertaintiesin the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance ofthe current global climate observing system, its extension into areas ofgaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework forconcerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory aspresented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOIhttps://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2(von Schuckmann et al., 2020). 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat hasaccumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land,the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Reportby Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results inunprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverseimpacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory providesa measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifyinghow much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat isstored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulateheat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to aheating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority,about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 %on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for meltingthe cryosphere. Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to0.76±0.2 W m−2. The Earth energy imbalance is the mostfundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and thepublic can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task ofbringing anthropogenic climate change under control. Moreover, thisindicator is highly complementary to other established ones like global meansurface temperature as it represents a robust measure of the rate of climatechange and its future commitment. We call for an implementation of theEarth energy imbalance into the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based onbest available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated fromvon Schuckmann et al. (2020), is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinarycollaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concertedinternational efforts for climate change monitoring and community-basedrecommendations and we also call for urgently needed actions for enablingcontinuity, archiving, rescuing, and calibrating efforts to assure improvedand long-term monitoring capacity of the global climate observing system. The data for the Earth heat inventory are publicly available, and more details are provided in Table 4. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future. 
    more » « less
  4. Buchan, Alison (Ed.)
    ABSTRACT Climate change jeopardizes human health, global biodiversity, and sustainability of the biosphere. To make reliable predictions about climate change, scientists use Earth system models (ESMs) that integrate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring on land, the oceans, and the atmosphere. Although critical for catalyzing coupled biogeochemical processes, microorganisms have traditionally been left out of ESMs. Here, we generate a “top 10” list of priorities, opportunities, and challenges for the explicit integration of microorganisms into ESMs. We discuss the need for coarse-graining microbial information into functionally relevant categories, as well as the capacity for microorganisms to rapidly evolve in response to climate-change drivers. Microbiologists are uniquely positioned to collect novel and valuable information necessary for next-generation ESMs, but this requires data harmonization and transdisciplinary collaboration to effectively guide adaptation strategies and mitigation policy. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Idealized models can reveal insights into Earth’s climate system by reducing its complexities. However, their potential is undermined by the scarcity of fully coupled idealized models with components comparable to contemporary, comprehensive Earth System Models. To fill this gap, we compare and contrast the climates of two idealized planets which build on the Simpler Models initiative of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Using the fully coupled CESM, the Aqua configuration is ocean‐covered except for two polar land caps, and the Ridge configuration has an additional pole‐to‐pole grid‐cell‐wide continent. Contrary to most sea surface temperature profiles assumed for atmosphere‐only aquaplanet experiments with the thermal maximum on the equator, the coupled Aqua configuration is characterized by a global cold belt of wind‐driven equatorial upwelling, analogous to the eastern Pacific cold tongue. The presence of the meridional boundary on Ridge introduces zonal asymmetry in thermal and circulation features, similar to the contrast between western and eastern Pacific. This zonal asymmetry leads to a distinct climate state from Aqua, cooled by ∼2°C via the radiative feedback of clouds and water vapor. The meridional boundary of Ridge is also crucial for producing a more Earth‐like climate state compared to Aqua, including features of atmospheric and ocean circulation, the seasonal cycle of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the meridional heat transport. The mean climates of these two basic configurations provide a baseline for exploring other idealized ocean geometries, and their application for investigating various features and scale interactions in the coupled climate system. 
    more » « less