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With rising global temperatures, urban environments are increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. While most UHI research has focused on large metropolitan areas around the world, relatively smaller-sized cities (with a population 100 000–300 000) remain understudied despite their growing exposure to extreme heat and meteorological significance. In particular, urban heat advection (UHA), the transport of heat by mean winds, remains a key but underexplored mechanism in most modeling frameworks. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential tools for simulating urban hydrometeorological conditions, yet most prior evaluations have focused on retrospective reanalysis products rather than forecasts. In this study, we assess the performance of a widely used operational weather forecast model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), as a representative example of current NWP systems. We investigate its ability to predict spatial and temporal patterns of urban heat and UHA within and around Lubbock, Texas, a small-sized city located in a semi-arid environment in the southwestern US. Using data collected between 1 September 2023, and 31 August 2024 from the Urban Heat Island Experiment in Lubbock, Texas (U-HEAT) network and five West Texas Mesonet stations, we compare 18 h forecasts against in situ observations. HRRR forecasts exhibit a consistent nighttime cold bias at both urban and rural sites, a daytime warm bias at rural locations, and a pervasive dry bias across all seasons. The model also systematically overestimates near-surface wind speeds, further limiting its ability to accurately predict UHA. Although HRRR captures the expected slower nocturnal cooling in urban areas, it does not well capture advective heat transport under most wind regimes. Our findings reveal both systematic biases and urban representation limitations in current high-resolution NWP forecasts. Our forecast–observation comparisons underscore the need for improved urban parameterizations and evaluation frameworks focused on forecast skill, with important implications for heat-risk warning systems and forecasting in small and mid-sized cities.
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Digitizing cities for urban weather: representing realistic cities for weather and climate simulations using computer graphics and artificial intelligence
Abstract Due to their importance in weather and climate assessments, there is significant interest to represent cities in numerical prediction models. However, getting high resolution multi-faceted data about a city has been a challenge. Further, even when the data were available the integration into a model is even more of a challenge due to the parametric needs, and the data volumes. Further, even if this is achieved, the cities themselves continually evolve rendering the data obsolete, thus necessitating a fast and repeatable data capture mechanism. We have shown that by using AI/graphics community advances we can create a seamless opportunity for high resolution models. Instead of assuming every physical and behavioral detail is sensed, a generative and procedural approach seeks to computationally infer a fully detailed 3D fit-for-purpose model of an urban space. We present a perspective building on recent success results of this generative approach applied to urban design and planning at different scales, for different components of the urban landscape, and related applications. The opportunities now possible with such a generative model for urban modeling open a wide range of opportunities as this becomes mainstream.
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- PAR ID:
- 10552802
- Publisher / Repository:
- Computational Urban Science
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Computational Urban Science
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2730-6852
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s43762-023-00111-z
