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Accurate long-term electricity load forecasting is critical for energy planning, infrastructure development, and risk management, especially under increasing uncertainty from climate and economic shifts. This study proposes a multi-resolution probabilistic load forecasting framework that leverages temporal hierarchies to generate coherent forecasts at hourly, daily, monthly, and yearly levels. The model integrates climate and economic indicators and employs tailored forecasting techniques at each resolution, including XGBoost and ARIMAX. Initially incoherent forecasts across time scales are reconciled using advanced methods such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Weighted Least Squares with Series Variance Scaling (WLS_V), and Structural Scaling (WLS_S) to ensure consistency. Using historical data from Alberta, Canada, the proposed approach improves the accuracy of deterministic forecasts and enhances the reliability of probabilistic forecasts, particularly when using the OLS reconciliation method. These results highlight the value of temporal hierarchy structures in producing high-resolution long-horizon load forecasts, providing actionable insights for utilities and policymakers involved in long-term energy planning and system optimization.
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This content will become publicly available on February 15, 2026
How electricity utility practitioners in the United States approach power system resilience
This study explores the understanding and practice of resilience among electrical utilities in the United States, focusing on how practitioners in the utility sector conceptualize and apply resilience in their work. As electricity becomes increasingly central to modern life, powering critical infrastructure and essential services, the resilience of power systems has gained prominence in energy policy and planning. However, there is a lack of standardized definitions and approaches to resilience in both academia and practice, particularly from an energy service perspective. The research employs a qualitative approach, utilizing semi-structured interviews with experts (practitioners) from transmission and distribution utilities in the United States to examine their definitions, understanding, and applications of resilience. By adopting a grounded approach, the study aims to identify key themes and concepts that practitioners associate with power system resilience. The findings outline that there is no clear definition of resilience amongst utility practitioners, and resilience and reliability are often used interchangeably/synonymously as there are no fixed indicators for resilience amongst practitioners. At present, unlike reliability, utilities are not including resilience as a term in their long-term resource planning, and neither are reporting resilience-based indicators to any of the government agencies. The findings contribute to the ongoing dialogue on energy resilience and offer a foundation for developing more comprehensive and context-specific approaches to building resilient energy systems that prioritize critical services and vulnerable populations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2121875
- PAR ID:
- 10575461
- Publisher / Repository:
- Future Energy
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Future Energy
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2832-0328
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 19 to 29
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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