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Abstract Anthropogenic global warming and deforestation are significant drivers of the global biodiversity crisis. Ectothermic and viviparous animals are especially vulnerable since high environmental temperatures can impair embryonic development, but we lack knowledge about these effects upon Neotropical organisms. Here, we estimate how much of the current area with suitable habitats overlaps with protected areas and model the combined effects of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of the viviparous Neotropical lizardNotomabuya frenata(Scincidae). This species ranges in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. We use environmental and physiological variables (locomotor performance and hours of activity) to predict suitable present and future areas, considering different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. The most critical predictors of habitat suitability were isothermality (i.e., the ratio between mean diurnal temperature range and annual temperature range), precipitation during winter, and hours of activity under lower thermal extremes. Still, our models predict a contraction of suitable habitats in all future scenarios and the displacement of these areas towards eastern South America. In addition, protected areas are not enough to ensure suitable habitats for this species. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of tropical and viviparous ectotherms and suggest that even widely distributed species, such asN. frenata, may have their conservation compromised shortly due to the low representativeness of their suitable habitats in protected areas combined with the synergistic effects of climate change and deforestation. We stress the need for decision‐makers to consider the impact of range shifts in creating protected areas and managing endangered species.
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Niche Distribution Pattern of Rüppell's Vulture ( Gyps rueppellii ) and Conservation Implication in Kenya
Rüppell's vultures are critically endangered, primarily due to anthropogenic activities such as habitat degradation, climate change, and intentional and unintentional poisoning, which have led to the loss of nesting and breeding sites. To aid in the conservation and protection of these species, habitat evaluation and niche mapping are crucial. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a valuable tool in conservation planning, providing insights into the ecological requirements of species under conservation concerns. This study employed an ensembling modeling approach to assess the habitat suitability and distribution of Rüppell's vultures across Kenya. We utilized four algorithms; Gradient Boosting Machine, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, and Random Forest. Data on Rüppell's vultures were sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, while key environmental variables influencing the species' distribution were obtained from WorldClim. The resultant species distribution map was overlaid with a conservation area map to evaluate the overlap between suitable habitats and existing protected areas. Our analysis identified suitable habitats in regions such as the Masai Mara Game Reserve, Mount Kenya National Park, Nairobi National Park, Tsavo East National Park, and Hell's Gate National Park, with the majority of these habitats located outside protected areas, except those within Hell's Gate National Park. Precipitation and elevation emerged as the primary environmental predictors of the distribution of Rüppell's vultures. Based on these findings, we recommend establishing vulture sanctuaries in suitable habitats and hotspots to enhance the conservation of Rüppell's vultures outside the protected areas.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2027654
- PAR ID:
- 10592101
- Publisher / Repository:
- PubMed Central
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2045-7758
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e70371
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- critically endangered species habitat suitability, Rüppell's vultures species distribution modeling
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70371
