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Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States–Canada) over the past century (1928–2022) and climate projections (2030–2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem–based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.
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This content will become publicly available on April 15, 2026
Energy Regulatory and Industrial Complex (ERIC): A New Framework
Climate change agreements force us to explore interconnected social, economic, and energy related transitions needed to combat the effects of anthropogenic activities on the Earth's climate. To help us understand what brought us to where we are today and guide us in our decision-making for tomorrow, we introduce the Energy Regulatory Industrial Complex model (ERIC). ERIC illustrates the transformation of energy from energy sources through to energy services, as in energy flow diagrams, but adds the emissions greenhouse gases from those transformations. ERIC includes the creation of wealth enabled by energy services, innovation that supports advances in science and technology, and activities that maintain and sustain existing systems. Policies and geo-politics can influence each decision and investment stream. At its core, ERIC relies on a firm foundation of education. Using data from the United States and India, we show how ERIC can be used to pinpoint the vulnerabilities and places for interventions in transitioning to a clean energy future.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2426624
- PAR ID:
- 10648835
- Publisher / Repository:
- Indian Ecological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Indian journal of ecology
- Edition / Version:
- 52
- Volume:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0304-5250
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 241-249
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Climate change Education Energy flow diagram Energy systems Energy transition
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: 1.0MB Other: pdf
- Size(s):
- 1.0MB
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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