The critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces significant anthropogenic mortality. Recent climatic shifts in traditional habitats have caused abrupt changes in right whale distributions, challenging traditional conservation strategies. Tools that can help anticipate new areas where E. glacialis might forage could inform proactive management. In this study, we trained boosted regression tree algorithms with fine-resolution modeled environmental covariates to build prey copepod (Calanus) species-specific models of historical and future distributions of E. glacialis foraging habitat on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to the Labrador Shelf. We determined foraging suitability using E. glacialis foraging thresholds for Calanus spp. adjusted by a bathymetry-dependent bioenergetic correction factor based on known foraging behavior constraints. Models were then projected to 2046–2065 and 2066–2085 modeled climatologies for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the goal of identifying potential shifts in foraging habitat. The models had generally high performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.9) and indicated ocean bottom conditions and bathymetry as important covariates. Historical (1990–2015) projections aligned with known areas of high foraging habitat suitability as well as potential suitable areas on the Labrador Shelf. Future projections suggested that the suitability of potential foraging habitat would decrease in parts of the Gulf of Maine and southwestern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, while potential habitat would be maintained or improved on the western Scotian Shelf, in the Bay of Fundy, on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves, and at some locations along the continental shelf breaks. Overall, suitable habitat is projected to decline. Directing some survey efforts toward emerging potential foraging habitats can enable conservation management to anticipate the type of distribution shifts that have led to high mortality in the past.
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Why did foraging, horticulture and pastoralism persist after the Neolithic transition? The oasis theory of agricultural intensification
Despite the global spread of intensive agriculture, many populations retained foraging or mixed subsistence strategies until well into the twentieth century. Understanding why has been a longstanding puzzle. One explanation, called the marginal habitat hypothesis, is that foraging persisted because foragers tended to live in marginal habitats generally not suited to agriculture. However, recent empirical studies have not supported this view. The alternative but untested oasis hypothesis of agricultural intensification claims that intensive agriculture developed in areas with low biodiversity and a reliable water source not reliant on local rainfall. We test both the marginal habitat and oasis hypotheses using a cross-cultural sample drawn from the 'Ethnographic atlas' (Murdock 1967Ethnology6, 109–236). Our analyses provide support for both hypotheses. We found that intensive agriculture was unlikely in areas with high rainfall. Further, high biodiversity, including pathogens associated with high rainfall, appears to have limited the development of intensive agriculture. Our analyses of African societies show that tsetse flies, elephants and malaria are negatively associated with intensive agriculture, but only the effect of tsetse flies reached significance. Our results suggest that in certain ecologies intensive agriculture may be difficult or impossible to develop but that generally lower rainfall and biodiversity is favourable for its emergence. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of inequality’.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2020156
- PAR ID:
- 10652383
- Publisher / Repository:
- royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rstb
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 378
- Issue:
- 1883
- ISSN:
- 0962-8436
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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