Abstract The stratospheric influence on summertime high surface ozone ( ) events is examined using a twenty-year simulation from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. We find that transported from the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to the surface variability where background surface exceeds the 95thpercentile, especially over western U.S. Maximum covariance analysis is applied to anomalies paired with stratospheric tracer anomalies to identify the stratospheric intrusion and the underlying dynamical mechanism. The first leading mode corresponds to deep stratospheric intrusions in the western and northern tier of the U.S., and intensified northeasterlies in the mid-to-lower troposphere along the west coast, which also facilitate the transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean. The second leading mode corresponds to deep intrusions over the Intermountain Regions. Both modes are associated with eastward propagating baroclinic systems, which are amplified near the end of the North Pacific storm tracks, leading to strong descents over the western U.S.
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Human influence on climate detectable in the late 19th century
The physics of the heat-trapping properties of CO were established in the mid-19th century, as fossil fuel burning rapidly increased atmospheric CO levels. To date, however, research has not probed when climate change could have been detected if scientists in the 19th century had the current models and observing network. We consider this question in a thought experiment with state-of-the-art climate models. We assume that the capability to make accurate measurements of atmospheric temperature changes existed in 1860, and then apply a standard “fingerprint” method to determine the time at which a human-caused climate change signal was first detectable. Pronounced cooling of the mid- to upper stratosphere, mainly driven by anthropogenic increases in carbon dioxide, would have been identifiable with high confidence by approximately 1885, before the advent of gas-powered cars. These results arise from the favorable signal-to-noise characteristics of the mid- to upper stratosphere, where the signal of human-caused cooling is large and the pattern of this cooling differs markedly from patterns of intrinsic variability. Even if our monitoring capability in 1860 had not been global, and high-quality stratospheric temperature measurements existed for Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes only, it still would have been feasible to detect human-caused stratospheric cooling by 1894, only 34 y after the assumed start of climate monitoring. Our study provides strong evidence that a discernible human influence on atmospheric temperature has likely existed for over 130 y.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2116186
- PAR ID:
- 10654005
- Publisher / Repository:
- PNAS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 122
- Issue:
- 25
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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