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Abstract The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.
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This content will become publicly available on August 15, 2026
Connecting inequalities in land ownership and groundwater access: the case of California’s Central Valley
Understanding inequality in groundwater access and cropland ownership is critical for assessing the sustainability and equity of agricultural systems, especially in regions facing climatic and socioeconomic patterns such as drought and cropland consolidation. These two forms of access are deeply interconnected: for instance, cropland ownership often determines who can access and control groundwater. Due to data challenges, however, few studies have quantified groundwater access inequality in the same ways that land ownership has been quantified. Similarly, the regional scale of most analyses to date limits our understanding of factors that shape and modify these interconnections. Our study aims to address this gap by constructing a novel geospatial dataset by matching groundwater wells with cropland parcels across California’s Central Valley. We quantify the magnitude and spatial patterns of groundwater and cropland inequality and examine how it scales with land ownership, crop types, and surface water access. Our results indicate substantial inequality in both groundwater access and land ownership, with the top decile of well owners possessing 46.4% of the region’s total well capacity. These well owners are more likely to allocate groundwater to high-revenue, water-intensive perennials such as almonds and walnuts. Furthermore, large landholders tend to have far more wells, deeper and higher-capacity wells, and greater access to surface water resources. However, we observe consistently wider inequality in land ownership than water access, and larger landowners possess less well depth and capacity per hectare. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of California’s historical lack of regulation on groundwater, particularly with respect to inequality in open access vs private property resources. We also consider possible lessons for future groundwater regulation and distribution mechanisms for groundwater rights under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.
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- PAR ID:
- 10655693
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 094026
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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