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In the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Shifting seas: understanding deep-time human impacts on marine ecosystems’. 

Abstract The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions. 

Abstract. Accurate representation of aerosol optical properties is essential for the modeling and remote sensing of atmospheric aerosols. Although aerosol optical properties are strongly dependent upon the aerosol size distribution, the use of detailed aerosol microphysics schemes in global atmospheric models is inhibited by associated computational demands. Computationally efficient parameterizations for aerosol size are needed. Inthis study, airborne measurements over the United States (DISCOVER-AQ) andSouth Korea (KORUS-AQ) are interpreted with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to investigate the variation in aerosol size when organicmatter (OM) and sulfate–nitrate–ammonium (SNA) are the dominant aerosol components. The airborne measurements exhibit a strong correlation (r=0.83) between dry aerosol size and the sum of OM and SNA mass concentration (MSNAOM). A global microphysical simulation(GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) indicates that MSNAOM and theratio between the two components (OM/SNA) are the major indicators for SNA and OM dry aerosol size. A parameterization of the dry effective radius (Reff) for SNA and OM aerosol is designed to represent the airborne measurements (R2=0.74; slope = 1.00) and the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS simulation (R2=0.72; slope = 0.81). When applied in the GEOS-Chem high-performance model, this parameterization improves the agreement between the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the ground-measured AOD from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET; R2 from 0.68 to 0.73 and slope from 0.75 to 0.96). Thus, this parameterization offers a computationally efficient method to represent aerosol size dynamically. 

Abstract The NOAA/NASA Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX‐AQ) experiment was a multi‐agency, inter‐disciplinary research effort to: (a) obtain detailed measurements of trace gas and aerosol emissions from wildfires and prescribed fires using aircraft, satellites and ground‐based instruments, (b) make extensive suborbital remote sensing measurements of fire dynamics, (c) assess local, regional, and global modeling of fires, and (d) strengthen connections to observables on the ground such as fuels and fuel consumption and satellite products such as burned area and fire radiative power. From Boise, ID western wildfires were studied with the NASA DC‐8 and two NOAA Twin Otter aircraft. The high‐altitude NASA ER‐2 was deployed from Palmdale, CA to observe some of these fires in conjunction with satellite overpasses and the other aircraft. Further research was conducted on three mobile laboratories and ground sites, and 17 different modeling forecast and analyses products for fire, fuels and air quality and climate implications. From Salina, KS the DC‐8 investigated 87 smaller fires in the Southeast with remote and in‐situ data collection. Sampling by all platforms was designed to measure emissions of trace gases and aerosols with multiple transects to capture the chemical transformation of these emissions and perform remote sensing observations of fire and smoke plumes under day and night conditions. The emissions were linked to fuels consumed and fire radiative power using orbital and suborbital remote sensing observations collected during overflights of the fires and smoke plumes and ground sampling of fuels. 

Abstract Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol‐cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in climate change prediction. Here, we present a machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) model that quantifies CCN from model‐simulated aerosol composition, atmospheric trace gas, and meteorological variables. Comprehensive multi‐campaign airborne measurements, covering varied physicochemical regimes in the troposphere, confirm the validity of and help probe the inner workings of this ML model: revealing for the first time that different ranges of atmospheric aerosol composition and mass correspond to distinct aerosol number size distributions. ML extracts this information, important for accurate quantification of CCN, additionally from both chemistry and meteorology. This can provide a physicochemically explainable, computationally efficient, robust ML pathway in global climate models that only resolve aerosol composition; potentially mitigating the uncertainty of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions (ERF_aci) and improving confidence in assessment of anthropogenic contributions and climate change projections.