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Solar-warmed surface waters subduct beneath Antarctica’s ice shelves as a result of wind forcing, but this process is poorly observed and its interannual variability is yet to be assessed. We observe a 50-meter-thick intrusion of warm surface water immediately beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. Temperature in the uppermost 5 meters decreases toward the ice base in near-perfect agreement with an exponential fit, consistent with the loss of heat to the overlying ice. Ekman forcing drives a heat transport into the cavity sufficient to contribute considerably to near-front melting; this transport has increased over the past four decades, driven by the increasing heat content of the ice-front polynya. Interannual variability of the heat transport is driven by zonal wind stress. These results provide a benchmark against which model performance may be assessed as we seek to reduce uncertainty around the contribution of basal melting to sea level rise. 

Abstract The mixed layer of polynyas is vital for local climate as it determines the exchange of properties and energy between ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. However, its evolution is poorly understood, as it is controlled by complex interactions among these components, yet highly undersampled, especially outside summer. Here, we present a 2-month, high vertical-resolution, full-depth hydrographic dataset from the southeastern Amundsen Sea polynya in austral autumn (from mid-February to mid-April 2014) collected by a recovered seal tag. This novel dataset quantifies the changes in upper-ocean temperature and salinity stratification in this previously unobserved season. Our seal-tag measurements reveal that the mixed layer experiences deepening, salinification, and intense heat loss through surface fluxes. Heat and salt budgets suggest a sea ice formation rate of ∼3 cm per day. We use a one-dimensional model to reproduce the mixed layer evolution and further identify key controls on its characteristics. Our experiments with a range of reduced or amplified air–sea fluxes show that heat loss to the atmosphere and related sea ice formation are the principal determinants of stratification evolution. Additionally, our modeling demonstrates that horizontal advection is required to fully explain the mixed layer evolution, underlining the importance of the ice-covered neighboring region for determining sea ice formation rates in the Amundsen Sea polynya. Our findings suggest that the potential overestimation of sea ice production by satellite-based methods, due to the absence of oceanic heat flux, could be offset by horizontal advection inhibiting mixed layer deepening and sustaining sea ice formation. 

Knowledge gaps about how the ocean melts Antarctica’s ice shelves, borne from a lack of observations, lead to large uncertainties in sea level predictions. Using high-resolution maps of the underside of Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we reveal the imprint that ice shelf basal melting leaves on the ice. Convection and intermittent warm water intrusions form widespread terraced features through slow melting in quiescent areas, while shear-driven turbulence rapidly melts smooth, eroded topographies in outflow areas, as well as enigmatic teardrop-shaped indentations that result from boundary-layer flow rotation. Full-thickness ice fractures, with bases modified by basal melting and convective processes, are observed throughout the area. This new wealth of processes, all active under a single ice shelf, must be considered to accurately predict future Antarctic ice shelf melt. 

Abstract Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d⁻¹in 2019 to 2.85 m d⁻¹by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt. 

Abstract West Antarctic ice-shelf thinning is primarily caused by ocean-driven basal melting. Here we assess ocean variability below Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) and reveal the importance of local ocean circulation and sea-ice. Measurements obtained from two sub-ice-shelf moorings, spanning January 2020 to March 2021, show warming of the ice-shelf cavity and an increase in meltwater fraction of the upper sub-ice layer. Combined with ocean modelling results, our observations suggest that meltwater from Pine Island Ice Shelf feeds into the TEIS cavity, adding to horizontal heat transport there. We propose that a weakening of the Pine Island Bay gyre caused by prolonged sea-ice cover from April 2020 to March 2021 allowed meltwater-enriched waters to enter the TEIS cavity, which increased the temperature of the upper layer. Our study highlights the sensitivity of ocean circulation beneath ice shelves to local atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean forcing in neighbouring open oceans. 

Abstract Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica 1–3 . Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland 4 , making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise the global sea level by more than half a metre 2,3,5 . The rate and extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat 3,6 , both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base 7,8 , resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates. 

Abstract Understanding the recent history of Thwaites Glacier, and the processes controlling its ongoing retreat, is key to projecting Antarctic contributions to future sea-level rise. Of particular concern is how the glacier grounding zone might evolve over coming decades where it is stabilized by sea-floor bathymetric highs. Here we use geophysical data from an autonomous underwater vehicle deployed at the Thwaites Glacier ice front, to document the ocean-floor imprint of past retreat from a sea-bed promontory. We show patterns of back-stepping sedimentary ridges formed daily by a mechanism of tidal lifting and settling at the grounding line at a time when Thwaites Glacier was more advanced than it is today. Over a duration of 5.5 months, Thwaites grounding zone retreated at a rate of >2.1 km per year—twice the rate observed by satellite at the fastest retreating part of the grounding zone between 2011 and 2019. Our results suggest that sustained pulses of rapid retreat have occurred at Thwaites Glacier in the past two centuries. Similar rapid retreat pulses are likely to occur in the near future when the grounding zone migrates back off stabilizing high points on the sea floor. 

Abstract Determining the injection of glacial meltwater into polar oceans is crucial for quantifying the climate system response to ice sheet mass loss. However, meltwater is poorly observed and its pathways poorly known, especially in winter. Here we present winter meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier using data collected by tagged seals, revealing a highly variable meltwater distribution with two meltwater-rich layers in the upper 250 m and at around 450 m, connected by scattered meltwater-rich columns. We show that the hydrographic signature of meltwater is clearest in winter, when its presence can be unambiguously mapped. We argue that the buoyant meltwater provides near-surface heat that helps to maintain polynyas close to ice shelves. The meltwater feedback onto polynyas and air-sea heat fluxes demonstrates that although the processes determining the distribution of meltwater are small-scale, they are important to represent in Earth system models. 

Abstract The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) is a coherent circulation feature that rings the Antarctic continental shelf and regulates the flow of water toward the Antarctic coastline. The structure and variability of the ASC influences key processes near the Antarctic coastline that have global implications, such as the melting of Antarctic ice shelves and water mass formation that determines the strength of the global overturning circulation. Recent theoretical, modeling, and observational advances have revealed new dynamical properties of the ASC, making it timely to review. Earlier reviews of the ASC focused largely on local classifications of water properties of the ASC's primary front. Here we instead provide a classification of the current's frontal structure based on the dynamical mechanisms that govern both the along‐slope and cross‐slope circulation; these two modes of circulation are strongly coupled, similar to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Highly variable motions, such as dense overflows, tides, and eddies are shown to be critical components of cross‐slope and cross‐shelf exchange, but understanding of how the distribution and intensity of these processes will evolve in a changing climate remains poor due to observational and modeling limitations. Results linking the ASC to larger modes of climate variability, such as El Niño, show that the ASC is an integral part of global climate. An improved dynamical understanding of the ASC is still needed to accurately model and predict future Antarctic sea ice extent, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets, and the Southern Ocean's contribution to the global carbon cycle.