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Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

 

Collaborations that require information sharing and mutual trust between companies, suppliers, and clients can be tough, particularly in the remote era. But blockchain’s distributed ledger — and its use of smart contracts — can simplify the process, creating a common, reliable record of transactions and avoiding costly disputes. In doing so, blockchain changes how deals are made: Partner selection is made simpler, as establishing trust is less important; agreement formation is more important, because protocols are hard to alter once put in place; and execution is made easier, because outcomes can be automated. Blockchain isn’t a magic bullet — it works much better in some situations than others — but it can fundamentally change how collaborations work. 

Context.The nearby elliptical galaxy M87 contains one of only two supermassive black holes whose emission surrounding the event horizon has been imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). In 2018, more than two dozen multi-wavelength (MWL) facilities (from radio toγ-ray energies) took part in the second M87 EHT campaign.

Aims.The goal of this extensive MWL campaign was to better understand the physics of the accreting black hole M87*, the relationship between the inflow and inner jets, and the high-energy particle acceleration. Understanding the complex astrophysics is also a necessary first step towards performing further tests of general relativity.

Methods.The MWL campaign took place in April 2018, overlapping with the EHT M87* observations. We present a new, contemporaneous spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from radio to very high-energy (VHE)γ-rays as well as details of the individual observations and light curves. We also conducted phenomenological modelling to investigate the basic source properties.

Results.We present the first VHEγ-ray flare from M87 detected since 2010. The flux above 350 GeV more than doubled within a period of ≈36 hours. We find that the X-ray flux is enhanced by about a factor of two compared to 2017, while the radio and millimetre core fluxes are consistent between 2017 and 2018. We detect evidence for a monotonically increasing jet position angle that corresponds to variations in the bright spot of the EHT image.

Conclusions.Our results show the value of continued MWL monitoring together with precision imaging for addressing the origins of high-energy particle acceleration. While we cannot currently pinpoint the precise location where such acceleration takes place, the new VHEγ-ray flare already presents a challenge to simple one-zone leptonic emission model approaches, and it emphasises the need for combined image and spectral modelling.