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In group anagram games, players cooperate to form words by sharing letters that they are initially given. The aim is to form as many words as possible as a group, within five minutes. Players take several different actions: requesting letters from their neighbors, replying to letter requests, and forming words. Agent-based models (ABMs) for the game compute likelihoods of each player’s next action, which contain uncertainty, as they are estimated from experimental data. We adopt a Bayesian approach as a natural means of quantifying uncertainty, to enhance the ABM for the group anagram game. Specifically, a Bayesian nonparametric clustering method is used to group player behaviors into different clusters without pre-specifying the number of clusters. Bayesian multi nominal regression is adopted to model the transition probabilities among different actions of the players in the ABM. We describe the methodology and the benefits of it, and perform agent-based simulations of the game.Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 11, 2023
Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Visualization of Heterogeneous Behaviors in Modeling Networked Anagram GamesHeterogeneous player behaviors are commonly observed in games. It is important to quantify and visualize these heterogeneities in order to understand collective behaviors. Our work focuses on developing a Bayesian approach for uncertainty visualization in a model of networked anagram games. In these games, team members collectively form as many words as possible by sharing letters with their neighbors in a network. Heterogeneous player behaviors include great differences in numbers of words formed and the amount of cooperation among networked neighbors. Our Bayesian approach provides meaningful insights for inferring worst, average, and best player performance within behavioral clusters, overcoming previous model shortcomings. These inferences are integrated into a simulation framework to understand the implications of model uncertainty and players' heterogeneous behaviors.Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 8, 2023